Global Agenda Council on Personal Transportation Systems 2013
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Personal Transportation Systems is concerned with new models of individual travel, the interdependency of personal and mass transportation, and the environment necessary for these new models. Today, personal transportation implies the use of cars. However, increased congestion, limited space in urban areas, changing consumer behaviour and growing environmental limitations require a rethink of the current system and the development of new solutions.
If the increase in the use of cars for personal transportation maintains its historical correlation with increases in personal wealth, the global fleet will grow to almost 1.7 billion light vehicles by 2030 – or twice as many vehicles than on today’s roads. Even if fuel efficiency doubles, as called for in Europe by 2020 and in the US by 2025, CO2 emissions will still be some 2.5 times higher than the level agreed at the United Nations “Bali” conference, which called for a 50% reduction in CO2 from the transport fleet.
Similar developments will be visible in megacities and urban areas, where congestion has already led to access limitations and even complete vehicle bans. Further, limited infrastructure investments will not be able to respond to growing demand and the current system will come to a halt. This scenario would likely result in increased regulation, with undesirable consequences for both society in general and the personal transportation sector in particular.
For personal transportation systems to sustain quality growth, systemic imbalances will have to be eliminated and business models updated. The focus must be on both business performance and broader societal impacts, delivering marketable performance and wider societal benefits, and meeting the changing expectations of all stakeholders. The future system needs to offer low-energy consumption, low emissions, and safe, modern personal transportation that co-exists with other forms of individual and collective transportation.
- In the Western world, a 20-year old car costs approximately the same as a new computer or television set.
- According to World Bank statistics, in China in 2009 there were around 62.7 million cars, compared to 19.3 million in 2003.
- Following the introduction of new fines, the average speed in Moscow’s centre rose to 25.3 km/h in July 2012, from 20.4 km/h in June, improving traffic flow. In July 2011 it was 22.8 km/h.2
“There is a real chance of a climate change shock event within the next five years and transport is the only sector around the world which is not showing reductions in carbon emissions, so we have a big responsibility to act quickly.”
Chetan Maini, Founder and Chief of Technology and Strategy, Mahindra Reva
“Because of the financial pressure on the auto companies, they will continue to outsource to these big suppliers that now have the people and the technology to be the best in making all of these systems in a car. […] It's quite conceivable that, 10 or 15 years from now, a lot of engines will be made by outside companies that have technology and scale.”
John Casesa, Senior Managing Director, Investment Banking, Guggenheim Partners
"The challenge for the automotive industry is to find the golden mean between environmental needs and driving enjoyment, getting the balance right between engine specification, weight and size, and thus reducing fuel consumption and carbon emissions."
Patrick Oliva, Corporate Vice President, Prospective and Sustainable Development, Michelin Group
Coughlin, J.F., Reimer, B. & Mehler, B. “Monitoring, managing, and motivating driver safety and wellbeing”. IEEE Pervasive Computing, 10(3), 2011, 14-21
Schafer, A., Heywood, John B., Jacoby, Henry D., Waitz, Ian A. Transportation in a Climate-Constrained World. MIT Press, 2009.
Deakin, Elizabeth, Nuworsoo Cornelius and Golub, Aaron. Analyzing the Equity Impacts of Transit Fare Changes: A Case Study of AC Transit, forthcoming, Transportation Research Record, 2006
Automotive News World Congress
14-27 January 2013
Detroit, USA
Automotive News World Congress
15-17 January 2013
Detroit, USA
Auto Shanghai
20-29 April 2013
Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
The Global Agenda Council on the Automotive Industry (predecessor to the Council on Personal Transportation Systems) developed a roadmap for a tailored, multistakeholder approach to sustainable personal transportation in 2050. The goal of this roadmap is to achieve stakeholder alignment. The roadmap urges collaborative efforts to identify the most appropriate forms of urban mobility and related technologies essential to sustainable transport, new business models, infrastructure, and market incentives to progressively enable acceptably low emissions, safer vehicles and connected multimodal transport.
To promote the outcomes of this work and increase their impact, the Council presented its recommendations to the chief executive officers of the automotive community in Davos in January 2012 and urged action. The outcome was a mandate to develop a project that holistically analyses the impact of connectivity and consumer behavioural changes on the transportation system and to derive indications of how this could transform the industry. Further, the Council has sent a letter to the Transatlantic Economic Council, the organization that initiated efforts to standardize technology between the US and Europe, urging it to intensify these efforts and widen them to include the Pacific regions (especially Japan and China).
Finally, the Council initiated the Connected World: Transforming Travel, Transportation and Supply Chains project which feeds into the Hyperconnectivity initiative of the World Economic Forum. It develops scenarios to provide an industry perspective on how the travel and transportation system might be transformed under the influence of changes in the macro-environmnent, by changing customer needs, to establish new mobility frontiers and technological developments by 2025 and beyond.
Research Analyst: Rigas Hadzilacos, Global Agenda Councils, rigas.hadzilacos@weforum.org
Council Manager: Philipp Sayler, Community Manager, Automotive Industry, philipp.sayler@weforum.org
Forum Lead: John Moavenzadeh, Senior Director, Head of Mobility Industries, john.moavenzadeh@weforum.org
