The Political and Economic Implications of Resource Scarcity
The future availability of natural resources – energy,
metals, minerals, water, food and agricultural land – will have significant
implications for businesses, governments and other stakeholders. Although
international efforts to conserve resources and technological advances may
mitigate some of the risks related to resource scarcity, competition for access
to key resources could lead to geopolitical conflicts, trade issues and
aggressive corporate action.
Employing a unique cross-industry and multistakeholder
approach, this project seeks to understand the implications of resource
scarcity and develop relevant policy recommendations in response, supported by
the Forum’s Investors, Agriculture, Food & Beverage, Energy and Mining
& Metals Industries in collaboration with the Risk Officers Community.
Objectives and Methodology
This project aims to
identify the potential political and economic implications of natural resource
scarcity and make appropriate policy recommendations to government and business
leaders.
The methodology to
achieve these aims begins with rigorous research, structured interviews and
data analysis to understand the current state of global resources and competing
perspectives on visible trends.
A series of workshops
will employ strategic foresight approaches such as systems thinking to
visualize the interactions, trade-offs and uncertainties at a systemic level as
natural resources are produced, distributed and consumed. Based on this work,
the project will use interactive workshops and further interviews to illuminate
the range of implications for stakeholders and link these to policy
recommendations.
Outcomes and Milestones
The project will create
a unique network of experts across industries, geographies and stakeholder
types and present recommendations for policy-makers and business leaders in a
series of publications and a rich online environment.
In addition to
supporting Forum events, these materials will serve as a valuable contribution
to policy-making at Rio 2012, at the G20 meetings and in UN High-level Panel
discussions. The process will be
supported by discussions at the following milestone events:
- April 2011: Global Risks Meeting, New York; World Economic Forum on Latin America, Rio de Janeiro
- Summer/Autumn 2011: Workshops (Oxford, Melbourne, Toronto)
- September 2011: Annual Meeting of the New Champions, Dalian
- October 2011: Summit on the Global Agenda, Abu Dhabi
- January 2012: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, Davos-Klosters
- March 2012: Workshop in South Asia (Delhi or Dhaka)
- Spring 2012: Global Risks Meeting; Regional Meetings in Latin America, Africa and East Asia
- September 2012: Annual Meeting of the New Champions (report launch)
Downloads
- Overview of the Political and Economic Implications of Resource Scarcity Initiative
- Global Risks Meeting Report, including Resource Scarcity chapter
- Global Risks 2011 Report
- Global Risks 2011 Barometre
Related Links
- Risk Response Network
- Risk Response Network video
- Follow the Risk Response Network on Twitter
- World Economic Forum Industry Scenarios
- World Economic Forum Regional Scenarios
Contact
- Kristel Van der Elst, Director, Head of Strategic Risk Foresight: kristel.vanderelst@weforum.org
- Nicholas Davis, Associate Director, Deputy Head of Strategic Risk Foresight: Nicholas.Davis@weforum.org
Scribe of resource scarcity implications completed at Global Risks Meeting 2011