Advice for the Next US President

Peter Hakim, President, Inter-American Dialogue, USA

Even as Latin American opinions of the US have improved in the past year, the quality of US relations with the nations of the region remains at a low as does US credibility in regional affairs. To repair the damage, the next American president will need to substantially reverse the global policies of the Bush White House while, paradoxically, sticking to the Administration's policy agenda for Latin America.

No US president has been more disliked in Latin American than George W. Bush. The distaste does not come mainly from the Bush Administration’s policies in Latin America. Instead, it reflects Washington's global foreign and security policies. Most Latins have been alienated by US unilateralism, militarism and double standards. To regain Latin America's trust, the next Administration will have to show greater respect for multilateral arrangements, use military force more sparingly and stop the use of torture (particularly while preaching about human rights).  Latin Americans, like everyone else, want the US to remove its troops from Iraq, stop threatening to invade Iran and close down Guantanamo prison.

Yet, the Bush Administration has, by and large, pursued a sensible agenda in the hemisphere –although it has been stymied in Congress.  Most Latin American leaders would welcome efforts by a new president to press ahead with Bush's unfinished agenda.

Trade Policies

With hemispheric-wide trade talks stalled, the Bush White House has negotiated free trade agreements (FTAs) with ten Latin American nations.

Two of them (with Panama and Colombia) await ratification by the US Congress. It will be particularly difficult to gain approval of the Colombian agreement, which is opposed by labour, most Democrats in Congress and both Democratic presidential contenders. Still, it is vital that the next president make the effort. Defeat of the Colombia FTA would humiliate the US's most dependable South American ally and sharply diminish US credibility as a reliable partner.

Trade preferences are less controversial than trade deals, but some congressional leaders want to block tariff relief for countries that refuse to negotiate reciprocal trade agreements or that regularly express anti-US sentiments, like Bolivia and Ecuador. The Bush Administration has supported these preferences, and so should a new Administration. Ending them will be needlessly punitive and alienate the countries involved.

Immigration Reform

Comprehensive immigration reform was a top priority for the Bush Administration – as well as for Mexico and other Latin American countries. Unfortunately, most elements of the reform were bitterly unpopular among the American public – and nothing has been done to address the accumulating problems, particularly of the 12 million people living in the US without legal status. Changes in immigration law are supported by the three leading presidential candidates, but all of them have retreated from the expansive proposals they once advocated. The best that can be hoped for in the next few years, a likely period of economic slowdown, are small steps that will leave the most difficult issues unresolved.

Security Issues

Supported by the Clinton and Bush Administrations, Plan Colombia has provided the Colombian government with US$ 5 billion in anti-drug, anti-guerrilla assistance, which has substantially bolstered the government’s authority and helped make the country safer and more secure (although it has not reduced drug production or ended rights abuses). Despite its accomplishments, Colombia will continue to require US security aid for some years into the future.

This year the Bush White House negotiated the so-called Merida Initiative with Mexico to support collaboration between the two countries (and Central American nations) to address shared problems of drug trafficking and criminal violence. This collaboration should remain a high priority for the next president – who would ideally include other countries confronting similar problems.

Although Brazil and the US are rarely active partners on an issue (even their heralded ethanol agreement has not produced much), the Bush Administration ant the Lula government have established constructive ties. And when the two nations cooperate almost every other country in the region joins in. When they do not, the hemisphere usually remains divided. To sustain this fundamental relationship, the next Administration in Washington needs to follow Bush's lead in acknowledging Brazil's expanding regional and global influence, respecting its independent foreign policy and accommodating its disagreements with the US.

The Bush Administration started out mishandling relations with Hugo Chavez's Venezuela. An openly confrontational US government ended up elevating Chavez's profile and influence, while Latin American governments bristled at US pressure to publicly oppose Chavez. And they deplored Washington's celebration of the short-lived coup against Chavez in 2002. But for the past several years, Bush has moderated his responses to the antics and threats of Chavez, and stopped pressing other countries to restrict relations with Venezuela. That is the best approach for the next president to follow.

Cuba is one issue on which the Bush Administration remains conspicuously out of step with Latin America. Nearly every government in the region maintains normal relations with Havana and would loudly applaud a reversal of long-standing US efforts to isolate Cuba. The powerful Cuban-American community has succeeded in blocking change in US policy and will have a formidable influence on the next Administration. None of the US presidential candidates has yet dared to advocate a new Cuba policy. Still, a new US president could quickly signal a shift in direction by scrapping barriers to travel to Cuba, starting with the limits on Cuban Americans, and calling for a review of the Helms-Burton legislation, which punishes other countries trading with Cuba. US policy, however, is likely to evolve only gradually, and changes will require Cuban-American support and reciprocal actions by Havana.

To conclude: The next president can best start to rebuild US credibility in Latin America by pursuing President Bush's unfinished agenda for the region – by getting the Colombian trade deal ratified, taking even small steps towards immigration reform, developing cooperative security programmes with Mexico and Central America, and sustaining good relations with Brazil.  There is just not much demand today for any major new hemispheric initiatives from Washington – not in the US, with its anti-globalist mood and painful economic situation, nor in Latin America, where governments increasingly prefer to deal with their own problems.