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Financing Demographic Shifts: Pension and Healthcare Scenarios to 2030: China deep-dive
Today, China already has over one-fifth of the world's elderly population. The estimated number of Chinese seniors in 2030 is over 380 million - a ratio of approximately one to four elderly to non-elderly people. To put this in context, this is larger than the entire population of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom combined. Further, the natural ageing of the Chinese population combined with China’s “One Child” policy, has created the so-called “4-2-1” issue, meaning a single child will be responsible for two elderly parents and four even older grandparents as longevity increases. What makes the Chinese demographic shift exceptional compared to other countries is the rate at which this shift in demographic structure is taking place. While the number of people over the age of 65 in France and the United States is predicted to double in 115 years and 69 years respectively, the number of elderly people in China is expected to double in only 27 years. These factors will dramatically change the population structure of China by 2030, and has major implications for its pension and healthcare systems, both of which are currently relatively undeveloped. The World Economic Forum’s pension and healthcare scenarios for China will focus on how the country might respond to three different global environments in terms of governance and control, healthcare system architecture and incentives, internal migration and rural/urban policy, and the role of the private sector.
Contact
Bernd Jan Sikken, Associate Director Chiemi Hayashi, Global Leadership Fellow Nicholas Davis, Global Leadership Fellow |
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The future of pensions and healthcare in a rapidly ageing China