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Financing Demographic Shifts: Pension and Healthcare Scenarios to 2030 The future of pensions and healthcare in a rapidly ageing world
The UN expects that by 2050, the old-age dependency ratio at a global level will have more than doubled; from 11 elderly persons per 100 working age persons in 2007 to 25 elderly persons per 100 working age persons in 2050. In some countries, the pressures of an ageing population will be even stronger. For example, in China the old-age dependency ratio is expected to rise from 11% to 39% in 2050, in Germany from 29% to 50%, and in Japan and Italy from about 30% to 70%. These figures mean that one of the key global challenges is the financial sustainability of public pension and healthcare systems in rapidly ageing societies across the world. In addition, challenges in many less developed countries include the lack of formal social security, the diminishing role of families in old-age care, and underdeveloped private pension and health insurance markets. The goal of the World Economic Forum’s Financing Demographic Shifts initiative is to create challenging scenarios for the future of pensions and healthcare at the global, China and Italy levels. Scenario thinking is a powerful tool that helps policy-makers and business leaders prepare for a range of alternative futures in a world of uncertainty. Our key stakeholders include governments, individuals, families and carers, employers and the healthcare and financial service industries. We hope these scenarios will bring the long-term consequences of ageing societies closer to the realities facing governments, businesses and NGOs today, and help everyone prepare for the challenges and opportunities that they imply.
Based on these and other driving forces the World Economic Forum is developing a number of plausible, yet challenging scenarios for the future of pensions and healthcare at a global level and for China and Italy. This is done in collaboration with a variety of business, academic, government and NGO leaders from around the world. The scenario publication will also include extensive research on current challenges and past policy responses, as well as an overview of strategic options that can be adopted by stakeholders.
Contact
Bernd Jan Sikken, Associate Director Chiemi Hayashi, Global Leadership Fellow Nicholas Davis, Global Leadership Fellow |
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In many countries around the world, a rapidly ageing population is putting severe pressure on pension and healthcare systems. The demographic time bomb is ticking in both developed and less developed countries.
The future of pensions and healthcare on a global level is driven not only by demographic challenges, but also by more uncertain forces. These include global economic performance, investment returns, changing patterns of infectious and chronic diseases, income and wealth distribution, environmental factors and global medical innovation.
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