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Gulf State Scenarios: GCC Countries and the World: Scenarios to 2025
Press release
These will be released as: The research team led by the World Economic Forum, in partnership with theEconomic Development Board of Bahrain, the Executive Affairs Authority of Abu Dhabi and Olayan Financing Company of Saudi Arabia, asked two key questions concerning the GCC’s future:
The report presents three possible scenarios for the region over the next twenty years: ‘Oasis’, ‘Sandstorm’ and ‘The Fertile Gulf’:
"Over the next 20 years the region will continue to draw the world’s attention not just in terms of energy security, but also due to its fast-growing capital markets and innovative cities. The world needs to anticipate what forces may throw the region off track, and what opportunities exist to help the GCC countries and the broader Middle East region exceed our expectations" noted Nicholas Davis, who co-managed the project with Chiemi Hayashi, both Global Leadership Fellows at the World Economic Forum. The Economic Development Board of Bahrain and the Executive Affairs Authority of Abu Dhabi are using the scenarios to generate a common basis of understanding with the private and public sector in their countries as well as foreign investors and other stakeholders, in their work towards a positive scenario for the GCC countries. The Olayan Financing Company is committed to contributing to the well-being of both the country and the region and is using the scenarios to generate new ways of thinking about the future. The World Economic Forum will take the results of the GCC Country Scenarios to explore the deeper issues and ramifications of the region’s development to international audiences at its numerous regional meetings, including at the inaugural Annual Meeting of the New Champions in Dalian, China in September 2007 and at its Annual Meeting in Davos in January 2008 as well as other future meetings.. The World Economic Forum’s World Scenario Series also includes previously-published scenarios on: India, China, Russia, the Digital Ecosystem and Technology and Innovation in Financial Services. For more information or to obtain a copy of the report, please contact scenarios@weforum.org |
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The report examines three possible futures for the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The project, the result of an 18 month research process involving over 300 experts from the Gulf countries and beyond, outlines three scenarios for the development of the GCC region from 2007 to the year 2025.
Oasis, describes a scenario where regional stability continues to be a challenge for the GCC countries, which are nevertheless able to achieve substantial institutional reforms. The GCC countries develop strong identities and work together to coordinate diplomatic and economic policies through technocratic governance and a stronger internal market.
Sandstorm describes a future where regional instability is the defining factor that affects the ability of GCC countries to effectively carry out necessary institutional reforms. This scenario sees a number of conflating factors that make the surround region significantly turbulent, including conflict between the US and Iran and spillover of violence from Iraq.
The Fertile Gulf describes the rise of the GCC countries as innovation hubs in a global environment characterized by robust demand for energy and increasing globalization. Regional stability gives the GCC countries the opportunity to focus on enhancing their human capital at all levels, investing heavily in education while proceeding carefully with political and institutional reforms to support their growing economies and societies.
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