GCC Scenarios - United Arab Emirates

Human capital, innovation and leadership are key to the future of United Arab Emirates

The country's future will be determined not only by the effectiveness of governance and reforms but by the capacity to innovate and the stability of its regional environment.

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Human capital, innovation and leadership are central themes in The United Arab Emirates and the World: Scenarios to 2025, a new scenario report launched by the World Economic Forum. The scenarios offer insights into crucial forces affecting the UAE and its international partners, moving the focus from the rapidly evolving present to a consideration of three alternative visions of the future over a 20 year time horizon.

The report explores the long-term effects of a range of risks and opportunities facing the UAE, as well as the interaction of external and internal factors in shaping the country's future. The three scenarios are entitled: Oasis, Sandstorm and The Fertile Gulf. Oasis is a future in which the UAE leverages regional integration to minimize the volatility caused by regional instability while upgrading its human resources to involve its national populations in a robust, (yet primarily government-driven) economy. Sandstorm is a scenario whereby a confluence of dramatic regional events places the UAE in a difficult situation which leaders are only able to manage reactively.

“In the scenario where leadership and governance were exercised at every level and entrepreneurial spirit is well-rewarded, as depicted in The Fertile Gulf, the UAE’s momentum and economic leverage proves to be significant. Our work indicates that critical and creative thinking are central to upgrading human capital and fostering innovation,” states Chiemi Hayashi, the Scenarios Project Manager at the World Economic Forum and co-author of the report with Nicholas Davis.

Video interview with Chiemi Hayashi

"As businesses in the UAE integrate and compete globally they are becoming increasingly sophisticated. Scenarios are an excellent tool for business and government alike to facilitate strategic planning," said Sherif El Diwany, Director, Head of Middle East at the World Economic Forum. "We hope that the UAE business associations, chambers of commerce and industry find this work useful in reaching a deeper understanding of the global, regional and national environments, and thus helps them realize their diversification and economic growth aspirations."

In partnership with the Executive Affairs Authority of Abu Dhabi and with input from the federal ministries of labour and education, as well as other federal and emirate-level bodies, The United Arab Emirates and the World: Scenarios to 2025 engaged over 300 senior government representatives, CEOs, leading academics and members of civil society from around the Gulf region and the world. These scenarios build on The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries and the World: Scenarios to 2025, which was launched at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2007.

Should you require specific information, please contact scenarios@weforum.org