Africa Needs Leadership on Climate Change
Randall Krantz, Associate Director, Climate Initiative, World Economic Forum

As the world has started to wake up to climate change, so Africa too is becoming entangled in both the effects and the cause – in that order – of an issue at once global, complex and urgent. Africa has not been a major contributor to the current problem; if fingers are to be pointed, they generally point north and west. But the externalities of climate change mean that, when it comes to this issue, Africa cannot escape the consequences of others’ actions. Climate change is now expected to cause an average 2.8°C rise in global temperatures by 2030 – but this average could be exceeded in many parts of Africa.

Developing countries’ collective annual greenhouse gas emissions will soon surpass those of the collective OECD. The story for cumulative emissions is quite different: OECD countries’ historic emissions mean that, even as annual developing world emissions rise, their total cumulative emissions will not pass the OECD for another 40 years. But if we wait until then before acting – on the grounds of emissions “fairness” to developing countries – we will face a problem in the future even more pressing than that which we face today. What is worse, the effects of any further climate change will be felt most strongly in Africa. In order to get OECD countries to recognize their historic responsibility, the African Union and individual African governments must provide a clear lead in taking steps to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and fast.

Although there is still plenty of finger pointing associated with causes and effects in Africa, attempts to blame our way out of climate change will not succeed. Few African leaders have come to terms with the magnitude of climate change’s impacts, yet they should be educating their governments and people on how they can become more responsible in shaping their own future. Ministers need to acknowledge that climate change is not just an environmental issue; it affects health, industry, the economy, finance, transport, agriculture and every other ministry.

According to a recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the impacts of climate change, “Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and change because of multiple stresses and low adaptive capacity.”   The physical effects of climate change sound like a checklist for hell: higher temperatures, more heat waves, greater likelihood of flooding and soil erosion, more drought-affected areas, a likely increase in tropical storms and, over the long term, rises in sea level. Some effects are already discernible: a reduced growing season in Sahelian Africa and, in Southern Africa, longer dry seasons and more uncertain rainfall.

Interestingly, the primary effects on Africa will not be much worse than in some other parts of the world, but Africa’s low “adaptive capacity” will amplify the practical consequences. These will include water stress, lower agricultural productivity resulting in even lower food yields and, perhaps least understood, profound health impacts in terms of malnutrition and the spread of malaria. None of this is alarmism or conjecture – this is projection from sound science and, at first glance, it is enough to put the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse out of a job.

How can Africa help itself, promote local innovation and solutions and prevent climate change from becoming another aid trap? Reducing emissions, while positive in itself, is not sufficient. Serious efforts to battle the inevitable changes in climate from carbon dioxide already released into the atmosphere over the past centuries will be necessary. Africa needs to take action through adaptation to the threats of a changing climate and mitigation of its own greenhouse gases.

It is critical to make sure alternative energy markets and the associated long-term investment flows are worth more than the investment costs of going green. Local government incentives could help this calculus. Other opportunities lie in improved North-South – and especially South-South – transfers of technology. While Brazil leads the world in ethanol production from sugar cane, Africa has its own opportunities to pursue from resistant crops such as jatropha, a species native to Africa that will grow on lands unsuitable for food production. Bilateral technology-sharing agreements should enable faster adoption of such technologies by African countries.

One major challenge is for Africa to move away from a modernist system of learning and shift its expectations away from others. Two strategies may be key in this respect. First, because of the magnitude of the challenge, Africans need to feel they are part to the answer, so inclusion is vital. Second, they need to be empowered to contribute to the solution. Neither of these can come from Europe or North America. But they can be catalysed by African government and business leaders addressing the issue and acknowledging the role Africa can play for itself.

At the same time, leaders need to start thinking about local steps to reduce energy demand and increase energy efficiency. Utilities in Africa need to continue thinking in terms of demand-side management and innovative business models to ensure fair payment and collection for services. There are also pan-African solutions that can be addressed by African leaders: water rights, electrical interconnections, trade in biofuels and mass migration, which might result from shifts in crops and agricultural patterns.

Africa’s climate change problem will not be solved by Africa acting alone; but if every leader acknowledges the issue and a shares responsibility in tackling it, we will get beyond the blame game and be on our way to a workable, global solution.