Geopolitics
Asia and a post-American Middle East
When the consequences of the United States-led invasion of Iraq ten years ago are fully assessed, the importance of the subsequent rise of political Islam there – and throughout the wider Middle East – may well pale in comparison to that of a geostrategic shift that no one foresaw at the time. That shift, however, has now come into view. With America approaching energy self-sufficiency, a US strategic disengagement from the region may become a reality.
The Middle East, of course, has experienced the withdrawal of a great power, or powers, many times before: the disintegration of the Ottoman...
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March 18, 2013
Europe’s moment of truth
Ann Mettler explains why it’s time for European leaders to speak the truth about the crisis
“Nothing beats the truth.” These were the passionate words of Enda Kenny, Prime Minister of Ireland, when asked last week about the spring European Council on 14-15 March. He was talking about a moment of reckoning for the continent’s leaders as they confront increasingly hostile electorates – most recently exhibited in Italy, where voters sent a clear signal against austerity.
Now it’s payback time for the years – even decades – of denial, of make-believe that the prosperity that Europe enjoyed...
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March 13, 2013
Punishment by politics
Adrian Monck, Managing Director of Communication and Media Relations at the World Economic Forum, discusses why punishing people is not good politics
The elections in Italy reveal a crisis in leadership. Wolfgang Münchau blames Mario Monti’s defeat on a lack of political realism – code for cynicism. Paul Krugman blames it not just on Monti but on a European élite – or ‘Very Serious People’.
in Europe even more than in the US the Very Serious People live in a bubble of self-regard at their own seriousness, and imagine that the general public will follow their...
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March 4, 2013
What will economic democracy mean for South Korea?
South Korea is at a critical inflection point. Despite winning with a majority, Madam Park Geun-hye, who has been inaugurated as President of the Repubic of Korea today, assumes leadership of a country which remains divided on many key issues.The creation of a social safety net befitting of a US$ 1 trillion economy and reform of the system of large family-owned conglomerates known as chaebols have become the dominant issues in South Korean politics. Some fear the conglomerate system, responsible for South Korea’s catapult to Asian Tiger status in the 1990s, is now disabling and stifling...
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February 25, 2013
North Korea’s nuclear aspirations
North Korea has again shown with its recent nuclear test that it marches to its own drum – and a decidedly militaristic drumbeat it is. The sole country to have pulled out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and indeed, probably the only one to have signed the treaty with the clear intention of violating it, North Korea has been alone in the past 15 years in defying the international norm against nuclear testing.
Defiance might be called the national trait, and North Koreans may be proud to be described that way. In conducting its third nuclear test, Pyongyang not only defied...
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February 14, 2013
Keeping calm on North Korea
Gareth Evans, former President of the International Crisis Group, explains why North Koreans are not behaving completely irrationally.
North Korea’s latest nuclear test is bad news, both for Northeast Asia and for a world that needs to reduce its reliance on nuclear weapons. But international overreaction – with responses that raise rather than lower the temperature, and push the region closer to a nuclear arms race – would make bad news even worse.
“Keep Calm and Carry On” – as the British government famously urged its citizens in 1939 – is advice that often lends itself to parody. But it is...
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February 13, 2013
What would happen to Russia if oil prices slumped?
Michael Bradshaw asks whether Russia, for all its economic growth, is too dependent on natural resources. Read the World Economic Forum’s report: Scenarios for the Russian Federation.The Russian Federation’s economic growth story has had more twists and turns in it than a Danish thriller.Almost two decades after transitioning from a planned to a market economy, and following a decade of buoyant growth, the country was hit hard by the financial and economic crisis of 2008 and 2009. Oil prices collapsed and Russia’s financial sector suffered greatly from limited...
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January 22, 2013
Geopolitical uncertainties
The Global Agenda Outlook 2013 brought together Javier Solana, President of the Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics of ESADE and Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group. Wadah Khanfar, Co-Founder, Al Sharq Forum, moderated the discussion.
Present Models of Conflict Resolution
Javier Solana: I think that we continue to look at the problems of the world today from a Western-centric viewpoint, and that we do not understand the past so well – and I distinguish between history and memory. History is the history of a country; memory is what we recall of what we have done before in these...
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January 22, 2013
Capitalism 2018
How will capitalism be perceived in 5 years’ time? Pranjal Sharma is a Consulting Editor for Business World. He is also a Member of the Network of Global Agenda Councils.
Earlier in January, while I was walking the corridors of a leading business school in India between guest lectures, I bumped into a professor. In a remarkable display of instant decision-making, the professor asked me to drop by his class that was due in a few minutes.
Happy to meet more bright students, I agreed. The professor then surprised me by sharing the topic for discussion. It was corporate social...
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January 22, 2013
Can the centrists hold on?
Kemal Derviş, a former minister of economy in Turkey, administrator of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), and vice president of the World Bank, is currently Vice President of the Brookings Institution.
WASHINGTON – In most advanced democracies, a large center-right party competes with a large center-left party. Of course, the extent to which an electoral system favors large parties – by having high popular-vote thresholds to enter parliament, or through winner-take-all constituencies – affects the degree of political fragmentation. But, by and large, the developed democracies are...
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January 14, 2013
The World in 2030
Author: Joseph Nye is a professor at Harvard and author of The Future of Power.
CAMBRIDGE – What will the world look like two decades from now? Obviously, nobody knows, but some things are more likely than others. Companies and governments have to make informed guesses, because some of their investments today will last longer than 20 years. In December, the United States National Intelligence Council (NIC) published its guess: Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds.
The NIC foresees a transformed world, in which “no country – whether the US, China, or any other large country – will be a...
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January 9, 2013
Will a lack of leadership put the world at risk?
“The US-led geopolitical order is gone and is not being replaced,” warns Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, in the latest of the World Economic Forum’s presidential briefings for the Annual Meeting 2013 in Davos-Klosters.
In a stark survey of the current geopolitical landscape, Bremmer points to the growth and cultural divergence of emerging economies, the distraction of the US’s traditional allies and its new unwillingness to fulfil its traditional “world leader” role, as the main reasons why a potentially dangerous global leadership vacuum is emerging.
He believes this vacuum “...
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January 7, 2013
Ashraf Khalil: Tunis-Envy
I have a confession to make.After three days in Istanbul to participate in the World Economic Forum onthe Middle East, North Africa and Eurasia, I have become unhealthily and obsessively jealous of the Tunisian revolution.Maybe it’s just “the grass is always greener on the other side” human nature sort of a thing. But I simply can’t shake the feeling that my Arab brethren to the west are handling their post-revolutionary transition about 1,000 times better than we are in Egypt.The final turning in my descent into full-blown chronic “Tunis-envy” was meeting and serving on a panel with Rafik...
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June 8, 2012
Trust and legitimacy: The Intel™ chip of societies?
Around the world we are witnessing social contracts being redrafted or in many cases rewritten. Turn on the news and you are pretty much guaranteed to see a headline about elections, constitutions, governments rising, governments falling, or popular protests.The confrontation of differing interests, ideas and agendas – aka conflict – is inherent to social and political life. Conflict can play a positive role in social dynamics as a driving force of innovation and change. However, it becomes a destructive force when it results in violence and coercion.So how can people and societies manage...
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June 4, 2012
Turkey: A Middle East Role Model
Today, the first-ever World Economic Forum on the Middle East, North Africa and Eurasia commences in Istanbul under the theme “Bridging Regions in Transformation”. There couldn’t be a clearer indicator of how interconnected our world has become. And, the meeting constitutes the third Forum event in Turkey, which is a statement in its own right.In recent years, Turkey has managed to re-emerge as a key regional and global player politically. Apart from its current role in trying to resolve the Syrian crisis, Turkey (a member of NATO) has always acted as a mediator in the Middle East, building...
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June 4, 2012
Unlocking Africa’s potential
Since the World Economic Forum on Africa came to end, I have been reflecting upon many of the ideas and discussions that emerged during the three-day meeting in Addis Ababa.It has been an inspirational and thought-provoking experience to be in the company of so many innovative thinkers and dynamic individuals intent on driving change for the world and our communities. There was a real sense among participants that Africa is changing.The empowerment and engagement of youth was a theme that dominated our talks, and I enjoyed contributing to the many discussions about how best to ensure young...
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May 15, 2012
Forget the usual tired debates about Africa, it’s changing – for the better
Afro-optimism versus Afro-pessimism is a misplaced debate. Africa has changed. The Nairobi of my childhood and the Dar es Salaam where I began my professional career have both changed dramatically. This is evident in the real-estate booms and lengthening traffic jams. Million-dollar deals used to raise eyebrows, but now billion-dollar deals are becoming the norm.Regardless of social class, almost everyone has a mobile phone, or two or three. Even in remote villages, mobile phones have replaced the bicycle or radio as prized assets. As urbanisation kicks in, the air-conditioned supermarket is...
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May 11, 2012
Whirlwinds of change
When the London cabbie driving me to Paddington on Sunday asked where I was going and I replied that I was headed to Ethiopia, he said ‘What’s it like there now, is everyone still starving?’ Perceptions, it seems, aren’t easy to erase.It’s my third visit to Ethiopia. I flew on British Airways from London to Nairobi and on to Addis on Ethiopian Airways – voted Africa’s top airline in 2011. My work takes me across Africa and I would agree. This was a far easier than my previous trip here in late 2002, an exhausting 48 hours to reach Addis from West Africa with stops in Paris, Frankfurt and...
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May 9, 2012
One change, one year, one Africa
The World Economic Forum is travelling to Ethiopia this week to bring together the voices of Africa and help transform the region. This blog post is part of the One Year One Change campaign, which shares visions for a better Africa with world leaders attending this week’s meeting in Addis Ababa. What change do you want to see in Africa by 2013? #1y1cThis blog post is part of the One Year One Change campaign, which shares visions for a better Africa. What change do you want to see in Africa by 2013? #1y1c1 billion. This is the approximate total...
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May 9, 2012
2022: A Tipping Point for Africa?
How to describe this moment in Africa? Not to be dramatic, but yet it is dramatic. This is the deluge; history is speeding up in the continent like a muddy river in the rainy season, swollen and turbulent, life-giving but treacherous. The old is being swept away into places without memory, creatures are being annihilated.Indeed, this second point, on nature, should be put front and centre and not as an apologetic footnote: the failure of Africa to protect its life forms in (what can be futuristically called) the acceleration is abject and will come to be judged so. I am thinking here...
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May 4, 2012
Defining the next generation of Latin American leadership
Addressing a group of Web enthusiasts, investors and entrepreneurs at last year’s G8 meeting, French President Nicholas Sarkozy reminded the audience that while the rise of the Internet is to be celebrated, we mustn’t forget that the democratic government is the only legitimate representation of the will of the people.President Sarkozy’s words strike at the heart of the discussion that unfolded during the 2012 World Economic Forum on Latin America’s closing plenary – The Next Generation of Latin American Leadership – from which emerged two very different definitions of leadership.The first...
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April 27, 2012
Does America still want to lead the world?
For all their bitter differences, President Obama and Governor Romney share one overwhelming challenge. Whoever is elected will face the growing reality that the greatest risk to global stability over the next 20 years may be the nature of America itself.Nothing – not Iranian or North Korean nuclear weapons, not violent extremists or Mideast instability, not climate change or economic imbalances – will shape the world as profoundly as the ability of the United States to remain an effective and confident world player advocating its traditional global purpose of individual rights and open...
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April 20, 2012
Latin America: Ready for new models
We live in a world in crisis. Paradigms in the political, economical, and social spheres have been questioned and changed. These changes call for a new leadership, one that doesn’t replicate old formulas and commits the same errors. We need leadership to show a path that creates innovative solutions and is responsive to the demands of our time. I think that the characteristics of Latin America as a region–ethnically diverse, demographically young, and abundant in natural resources – gives us the opportunity to become the promoters of a new model for the world. The World Economic Forum in...
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April 18, 2012
Can Latin America feed the world?
Who will feed the world when our population reaches 9 billion? A big part of the answer lies in Latin America.This week at the World Economic Forum on Latin America, leaders are discussing how the region can fully realize its potential as an agricultural powerhouse while ensuring sustainability for the long-term benefit of regional economies.A report by the Forum’s New Vision for Agriculture initiative, launched today in Spanish, outlines how leaders can achieve sustainable agricultural growth through ambitious, market-based strategies. The report’s findings will be discussed this week by...
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April 17, 2012
Investing for a social impact in Latin America
The Schwab Foundation for Social Entrepreneurship is partnering with Promotora Social Mexico, a social investor, to host a special one and a half day meeting focusing on investing for a social impact in Latin America. This will be the most comprehensive “private meeting” the Schwab Foundation has so far hosted before a regional World Economic Forum event. It brings together 25 social entrepreneurs from across Latin America and the same number of donors or investors in the sector.The meeting kicked-off on Sunday, 15 April in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. On 16 April, participants will have...
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April 16, 2012
What if there was a cold war between the US and China?
Ian Bremmer on the four challenges that could push China and the US to the brink of a new cold war. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.What is your main field of expertise and current research? I view myself as someone who focuses on global political risk, on understanding how politics intersects with the global marketplace. The areas that I am most personally focused on within that space would be states in transition, which historically have been in emerging markets. However, frankly, when we look at today’s environment, states in transition...
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April 12, 2012
Modest Expectations for BRICS Leadership
I do not see the so-called BRICS as a group successfully taking initiatives in terms of playing a greater role in global leadership. Individually, though, you can see one of the five countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – taking the lead in a specific situation, for example, when Brazil and Turkey tried to act as intermediaries between the major Western powers and Iran on the issue of nuclear activities.As far as we know, most of the discussions that do take place between the heads of state of BRICS are in the economic and financial areas. Political issues are not present...
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March 30, 2012
BRICS Nations Ready for Global Leadership
Increasingly, the BRICS nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – are searching for better coordination of their political positions concerning world affairs and improved cooperation among members for economic growth.The emergence of the BRICS corresponded to the desire of these emerging states to play a greater role in the world. BRICS members account for a significant portion of world share in terms of population, territory size and importance of their economies. However, their overall economic development is still disproportional to their national endowments and aspirations...
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March 30, 2012
Building BRICS in New Delhi
The fourth BRICS summit, being held in New Delhi from March 28-29, will once again convene the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The major outcome of the summit will be two agreements – one on the enlargement of credit facilities among the five members, and another on the setting up of a development bank.At the heart of the summit will be the desire of these five very large, dynamic economies to promote trade and investment between them, and find ways of cooperating on major global economic, security and sustainability issues.The BRICS countries have a number of...
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March 29, 2012
Kony 2012: Rethinking Global Problem Solving
The ‘Kony 2012′ director who was found naked in the street will remain in the hospital for several weeks. Danica Russell, Jason Russell’s wife, attributed her husband’s “reactive phsychosis” to the “sudden transition from relative anonymity to worldwide attention — both raves and ridicules, in a matter of days.”“Relative anonymity to worldwide attention” is an understatement. The Internet gives new meaning to Warhol’s observation about 15 minutes of fame. Russell is striving to bring Joseph Kony, the Ugandan leader of the violent Lord’s Resistance Army, to justice for crimes against...
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March 29, 2012
Crumbling BRICS
The BRICS Summit is about to open in New Delhi with much fanfare. This conclave will provide the currently beleaguered government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh some much-needed respite from a spate of domestic political woes. It will also, no doubt, call for a greater voice for these emerging states in multilateral institutions and in forging the future global order. They may also take some steps toward institutionalizing this grouping of states all of whom share some misgivings about the governing arrangements in the current global system. However, beyond these developments, it is...
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March 28, 2012
What if the Arab Spring turns into an African Summer?
Achankeng Leke, Director of McKinsey & Company, South Africa, questions whether Africa could experience a wave of protest. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series, which explores various hypothetical risk scenarios.What is your main field of expertise and current research? My main field of expertise is Africa. I am a Senior Partner at McKinsey & Company and lead a lot of McKinsey’s work across Africa. We do a lot of research on economic development and on what it will take to drive the continuous growth of Africa.Given your research, what would...
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March 28, 2012
World Economic Forum and Harvard launch Global Conflict Management Curriculum
The World Economic Forum, along with the Harvard International Negotiation Program, conducted a “soft launch” of the world’s first Global Curriculum on Conflict Management for current and future leaders during the Davos Annual Meeting 2012. This curriculum combines innovative negotiation frameworks with firsthand accounts of senior leadership who have negotiated serious international conflicts. Cases have been contributed by Tony Blair, Bertie Ahern, Morgan Tsvangirai, Benita Diop and other senior global leaders, who discuss a negotiation dilemma they have experienced and reflect on what they...
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January 28, 2012
The arrival of the South: Does access mean influence?
If the giant “Mexico, Mexico, Mexico” signposts are not a tip-off, then perhaps the new “Inspiring India” façade of the Kongress Hotel is a clue. Add Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Ukraine, China, Malaysia, Peru and Saudi Arabia into the mix, and it should be clear: the emerging world has arrived, so to speak, in Davos.The emerging world represents 85% of the world’s population, 50% of global GDP and 30% of global trade. As South-South cooperation increases and South to North investment grows, leading global governance forums – such as the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos – should...
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January 27, 2012
Erik Berglof: The Call to Action is overdue
The Call to Action from the leaders of the international development institutions is overdue. In the absence of leadership, most acutely at the international and regional levels, we need to be reminded of the global challenges and the consequences if we fail to meet them. Let me single out two urgent tasks from the leaders’ manifesto – one short term and one long term.The first step must be to restore confidence in financial institutions. Nowhere is this more urgent than in Europe. Since the last crisis, European policy-makers have dragged their feet in creating transparency in the state of...
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January 24, 2012
A “new model” for engaging North Korea
The king is dead, long live the king. Now what?A “New Model” for engaging North Korea, says the Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Korea. I chaired the Council during three days of intense talks in Abu Dhabi last October. I was astounded by the vastness of the group’s accumulated experience and strong will to look at North Korea with a fresh perspective. The outcomes of our October discussions seem even more apropos after the death of Kim Jong-il.We concluded that the current model of interaction between North Korea and the international community is constrained by a reliance on a rigid...
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January 24, 2012
Transparency International’s Huguette Labelle: can people fight corruption?
We are often asked to say who is most or least corrupt? Who is doing the most about it? Is the world more corrupt than in the past?I wish we knew that. What we can say is which countries have very good systems in place to make corruption much harder to get away with. The countries at the top of Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index are characterised by a transparent, accountable civil service. Citizens can ask to see accounts and decisions.If someone does something inappropriate, there is a high chance that a watchdog, journalist or citizen will ask about it.This benefits...
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January 24, 2012
Global institutions ineffective amid the rise of regionalism
In 2012, the global coordinated response to the financial crisis and the post-9/11 security agenda are no longer the key drivers of global politics. The US has announced the end of the war in Iraq and a timetable for withdrawal from Afghanistan. Osama bin Laden has been assassinated and Al Qaeda has been largely incapacitated on a global level. The remaining global systemic risks from the financial crisis come from Europe. But the world appears unwilling and financially unable to collaborate in solving the Eurozone’s sovereign debt woes, instead opting for Europe to address the issue largely...
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January 23, 2012
