Global Risks
Introduction
In an interdependent, fast-moving world, organizations are increasingly confronted by risks that are complex in nature and global in consequence. Such risks can be difficult to anticipate and respond to, even for the most seasoned business leaders.
The World Economic Forum’s Risk Response Network provides leaders from the private and public sectors with an independent platform to map, monitor and mitigate global risks.
Its annual Global Risks Report analyses the perceived impact and likelihood of 50 prevalent global risks over a ten year time horizon. The 50 global risks are divided into five categories: economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological risks. Significant interconnections of global risks are analysed as major case studies in the report.
Global Risks Report 2013
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The Global Risks Report 2013 analyses 50 global risks in terms of impact, likelihood and interconnections, based on a survey of over 1000 experts from industry, government and academia.
This year’s findings show that the world is more at risk as persistent economic weakness saps our ability to tackle environmental challenges. The report highlights wealth gaps (severe income disparity) followed by unsustainable government debt (chronic fiscal imbalances) as the top two most prevalent global risks. Following a year scarred by extreme weather, from Hurricane Sandy to flooding in China, respondents rated rising greenhouse gas emissions as the third most likely global risk overall. The findings of the survey fed into an analysis of three major risk cases: Testing Economic and Environmental Resilience, Digital Wildfires in a Hyperconnected World and The Dangers of Hubris on Human Health. In a special report on national resilience, the groundwork is laid for a new country resilience rating, which would allow leaders to benchmark their progress. The report also highlights “X Factors” – emerging concerns which warrant more research, including the rogue deployment of geoengineering and brain-altering technologies.
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Read our previous reports
Economic imbalances and social inequality risk reversing the gains of globalization, warns the World Economic Forum in its report Global Risks 2012, Seventh Edition. These are the findings of a survey of 469 experts and industry leaders, indicating a shift of concern from environmental risks to socioeconomic risks compared to a year ago. Respondents worry that further economic shocks and social upheaval could roll back the progress globalization has brought, and feel that the world’s institutions are ill-equipped to cope with today’s interconnected, rapidly evolving risks. The findings of the survey fed into an analysis of three major risk cases: Seeds of Dystopia; Unsafe Safeguards and the Dark Side of Connectivity. The report analyses the top 10 risks in five categories - economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological - and also highlights "X Factor" risks, the wild card threats which warrant more research, including a volcanic winter, cyber neotribalism and epigenetics, the risk that the way we live could have harmful, inheritable effects on our genes. Key crisis management lessons from Japan’s earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disasters are highlighted in a special chapter.
Download the report | Japanese version | Chinese version
The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks 2011, Sixth Edition has identified economic disparity and global governance failures as central risks in the global risk landscape, exacerbating and driving a range of other risks.
The report identifies economic imbalances and unfunded liabilities as containing the seeds of potential future fiscal and financial crises and urges concerted coordinated action to manage them.
Download the report | Japanese version | Chinese executive summary
The Global Risks Report 2010 features numerous warnings of the long shadow of the financial crisis. The result of extensive input throughout the previous year by experts from business, academia, and the public sector, Global Risks 2010 highlights a number of slow-moving risks exacerbated by the financial crisis and global economic downturn, and stresses the continued need to further enhance global resilience to risks. Global governance gaps, an issue already to the fore in Global Risks 2009, continues to be at the nexus of global risks and the need for coordinated global action is increasingly urgent.
Resilience: What it is and why it’s needed
Lee Howell addresses the question: What does it mean for a country to show resilience in the face of risks it cannot manage alone?
From natural disasters to financial shocks, global risks are exogenous events, which go beyond the capacity of a country or corporation to manage on their own. Traditionally, the practice of risk management has focused almost entirely on preventable risks, where a culture of strict compliance can mitigate, or even avoid, worst-case outcomes. Filling the analytical gap on global risks, the World Economic Forum publishes annually its Global Risks report to assess...
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February 27, 2013
Global Risks 2012 - Seventh Edition - Korean
Economic imbalances and social inequality risk reversing the gains of globalization, warns the World Economic Forum in its report Global Risks 2012. These are the findings of a survey of 469 experts and industry leaders, indicating a shift of concern from environmental risks to socioeconomic risks compared to a year ago. Respondents worry that further economic shocks and social upheaval could roll back the progress globalization has brought, and feel that the world’s institutions are ill-equipped to cope with today’s interconnected, rapidly evolving risks. The findings of the survey fed into...
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February 14, 2013
Can nature help us solve risk management issues?
Risk management is not new. It is something we are born with. The most basic risk management systems are part of our DNA. We adapt, develop and occasionally improve on aspects of our natural heritage to build resilience. Nature evolves – it changes, it learns, it gets better. This is key to long-term success and one we must embrace.
The same principles apply to Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) as they do to IT security, or any other form of catastrophic risk. The Fukushima disaster in Japan, for example, taught us that most large accidents do not simply “occur”. There are many little warning...
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February 5, 2013
An entrepreneurial approach to risk
Karen Campbell, Research Fellow at the Wharton Risk Center, explains why entrepreneurial thinking could help to tackle climate and other risks.Which comes first, the risk or the opportunity? Does opportunity bring risk or does risk create opportunity? Does it matter?Many of the 50 global risks identified in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk 2013 report are not one time “shocks”, but threats that develop in complex ways depending on decisions made by individuals or different groups, from businesses to governments. This makes predicting risks especially difficult (see Risk Management...
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January 23, 2013
Working together to weather catastrophe
Eduardo Martinez, President of the UPS Foundation, on the need to work together and plan in advance to better withstand disasters.The largest investments in resilience come immediately after a catastrophic event and tail off soon after, but the risks do not. In an increasingly interdependent global community, the cascading effects become more uncertain and more serious.An estimated 200 million people were affected by natural disasters in 2011. They cost the world economy US$ 366 billion that year, the costliest in history, according to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters....
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January 23, 2013
Risk cannot be an afterthought
After a series of corporate controversies, Alexandra Brintrup, a supply chain specialist, explains what companies can do to plan for risks in advance. The World Economic Forum’s Building Resilience in Supply Chains report has just been published.
2012 was another tough year for supply chains. Risk continued to be a focal point as a fire in the Bangladesh Tazreen factory disrupted the US garment industry, and strikes in ports in Los Angeles shut down shipping operations for several days. Many companies, including Toyota, announced new risk management plans.
Provenance was once more high...
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January 22, 2013
Ideas @Davos: Dealing with disasters
It’s human nature not to want to think about risk until the earthquake hits, warns Satoru Nishikawa.Before you go to sleep at night, you should check that the wardrobe isn’t going to fall on top of you. If we’re better prepared for disasters, at least we will recover more quickly when they strike, says Satoru Nishikawa in the above video.A series of simple yet often overlooked aspects can help us save lives in a disaster. For example, following the major earthquake in 2011, emergency brakes on Japan’s high-speed bullet trains prevented passenger fatalities.Satoru Nishikawa is ...
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January 22, 2013
Supply chain challenges – and opportunities
Gary Lynch, Managing Director for Marsh Risk Consulting, on the obstacles to overcome to make supply chains more resilient.Fact: Global supply chains are continuously subjected to all types of shocks. Fact: Supply chains – that series of interconnected and interdependent relationships that bring value to the market – are only as strong as their weakest links. Fact: Resilience cannot be achieved in isolation. Fact: It is difficult to motivate public and private organizations to collectively address the need for greater resilience. But why?Building Resilience in Supply Chains by the World...
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January 21, 2013
Top issues leaders must address in 2013
The unstable economic context, a failure of the Eurozone, the fragility of the financial system, widening income inequality, structural unemployment – these are the top issues leaders must address in 2013.
The Global Agenda Outlook 2013 is a publication of the Network of Global Agenda Councils, a unique network of over 1,500 of the world’s most relevant experts from academia, business, civil society, government and international organizations. This report provides insights and views into pressing global issues, through a collection of survey results and interactive discussions among Members...
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January 21, 2013
An Outlook for Optimism
The Global Agenda Outlook 2013 is the flagship publication of the GAC Network, a global braintrust with more than 1200 members worldwide.
With so much uncertainty in the world today, how can world leaders effectively plan and implement long-term policies? Five years after a global financial crisis, uncertainty reigns on how we achieve sustainable global growth. In geopolitics, the dynamic between traditional superpowers and emerging economies, while fascinating, is far from being fully understood. Our virtual personas tread muddy waters, contending with ambiguities over digital rights...
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January 21, 2013
Could alien life go from science fiction to fact?
As part of the Global Risks 2013 report, the World Economic Forum’s Risk Response Network has identified five “X Factor” risks in partnership with Nature. These look beyond mainstream risks to five emerging potential game-changers.
Given the pace of space exploration, it is increasingly conceivable that we may discover the existence of alien life or other planets that could support human life. What would be the effects on science funding flows and humanity’s self-image?
It was only in 1995 that we first found evidence that other stars also have planets orbiting them. Now thousands of “...
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January 14, 2013
What if a disaster on the scale of the Haiti earthquake happened again?
Ahead of the three-year anniversary of the Haiti earthquake on January 12, Baroness Valerie Amos, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator at the United Nations, explains what lessons have been learned from catastrophes of the past.
What kind of disaster are you most worried about?
It could be something sudden, like the kind of major earthquakes we have seen in Pakistan or Myanmar. Or it could be a disaster that occurs more slowly, like the drought in the Horn of Africa in 2010, or in 2012, when drought in nine countries affected 18 million people in...
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January 11, 2013
Will an ageing population bankrupt us?
As part of the Global Risks 2013 report, the World Economic Forum’s Risk Response Network has identified five “X Factor” risks in partnership with Nature. These look beyond mainstream risks to five emerging potential game-changers.
We are getting better at keeping people alive for longer. Are we setting up a future society that must struggle to cope with a mass of arthritic, demented and, above all, expensive elderly who are in need of long-term care and palliative solutions?
The blessings of 20th-century medicine appear ready to explode with the deciphering of the genome and attendant...
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January 11, 2013
Bringing space down to earth
Damage to space-based infrastructure is one of the more esoteric risks covered in the Global Risks 2013 report.
Members of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Space Security believe that a lack of broad awareness of the importance of satellites explains why this risk consistently ranks at the bottom of the global risk landscape. Few people appreciate how much we depend on satellites to support our most critical infrastructure and to live modern and mobile lives:
- The daily operations of telephony and Internet networks, financial markets, the banking industry, data centres...
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January 11, 2013
Are we at risk from rogue geoengineering?
As part of the Global Risks 2013 report, the World Economic Forum’s Risk Response Network has identified five “X Factor” risks in partnership with Nature. These look beyond mainstream risks to five emerging potential game-changers.
In response to growing concerns about climate change, scientists are exploring ways in which they could, with international agreement, manipulate the Earth’s climate. But what if this technology were to be hijacked by a rogue state or individual?
Geoengineering can refer to many things, but it is most often associated with a scientific field that has come to be...
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January 11, 2013
The economy or the climate? It’s not a choice
What concerns me the most about risk is that 10 years from now, we’ll look back and say: “We knew, and we didn’t do enough” or “we didn’t do what we could have done”.
Coping with the economic and climate change crises is unfortunately no longer seen as a continuum, but as opposing choices. There’s an idea out there that somehow we can’t have both. We need to go beyond this thinking in boxes. Since smart risk management is about taking a holistic approach to situations, we should do the same when it comes to the economic and climate change challenges we’re facing.
Adaptation...
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January 11, 2013
Will we tool up our own brains to gain an edge?
As part of the Global Risks 2013 report, the World Economic Forum’s Risk Response Network has identified five “X Factor” risks in partnership with Nature, a leading scientific journal. These look beyond mainstream risks to five emerging potential game-changers.
Once the preserve of science fiction, superhuman abilities are fast approaching the horizon of plausibility. Will it be ethically accepted for the world to divide into the cognitively-enhanced and unenhanced? What might be the military implications?
Scientists are working hard to develop the medicines and therapies needed to heal...
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January 10, 2013
Our better instincts can stamp out digital wildfires
Lutfey Siddiqi is Adjunct Professor at the Risk Management Institute, National University of Singapore and a Managing Director at UBS Investment bank. He was selected as a 2012 Young Global leader by the World Economic Forum.
Digital Wildfires in a Hyperconnected World is one of three risk cases featured in the Global Risks 2013 report, published this week.
One of the most vivid examples of a digital wildfire was the attack on centuries-old Buddhist temples in the southern part of my native Bangladesh in September 2012. This was the first such instance of large-scale religious...
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January 10, 2013
Has climate change tipped out of control?
As part of the Global Risks Report 2013, the World Economic Forum’s Risk Response Network has identified five “X Factor” risks in partnership with Nature. These look beyond mainstream risks to five emerging potential game-changers.
The threat of climate change is well known. But have we passed the point of no return? What if we have already triggered a runaway chain reaction that is rapidly tipping Earth’s atmosphere into an inhospitable state?
The natural greenhouse effect is a prerequisite for life. Without it, the Earth’s global average surface temperature would be far below zero. But our...
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January 9, 2013
Global Risks 2013 by numbers
The Global Risks 2013 report, which captures how experts see the most important risks afflicting the world over the next ten years, is stuffed full of facts, figures and graphics. You can sift through the findings in our data explorer, which lets you filter how global risks are seen by region, age and gender, among other criteria. Here is a map showing the top three risks around the world in terms of impact, and below is a list of figures which shed light on the report’s methodology as well as some of the many facets of a world at risk.
Over 1000 experts from industry, government, academia...
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January 8, 2013
What’s threatening our world?
The Global Risks 2013 report paints a picture of a world more at risk as persistent economic weakness saps our ability to tackle environmental challenges. It considers three “risk cases” – Testing Economic and Environmental Resilience, Digital Wildfires in a Hyperconnected World, and The Dangers of Hubris on Human Health – as well as identifying “X Factors”, emerging concerns with unknown consequences.
Get to know the report, how it was put together and what it means for the future with this series of videos.
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January 8, 2013
X Factors: the risks that bite back
When we think about global risks, we tend to extrapolate from the headlines. The troubles in the Euro-zone could spiral out of control, the revolution in Syria could flare into a wider war, the H5N1 bird flu virus could mutate and spread from person to person in a global pandemic. Those dangers and many others are clear and present, and society would be well-advised to prepare for them.
But this year the World Economic Forum and Nature teamed up to explore another category of risk: the dangers that could sneak up, largely unnoticed. Many of these risks – which we call X factors –...
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January 8, 2013
Building resilience to global risks
Professor Klaus Schwab is Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum. The Global Risks 2013 report is published today.
As we strive to restore confidence and growth globally, leaders cannot continue with a “risk-off” mindset if our collective goal remains to seize transformational opportunities that can improve the state of the world. Dynamism in our hyperconnected world requires increasing our resilience to the many global risks that loom before us.
By their nature, global risks do not respect national borders, as highlighted in the Global Risks 2013 report. And we now know...
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January 8, 2013
Global Risks 2013 - Eighth Edition
The Global Risks Report 2013 analyses 50 global risks in terms of impact, likelihood and interconnections, based on a survey of over 1000 experts from industry, government and academia. This year’s findings show that the world is more at risk as persistent economic weakness saps our ability to tackle environmental challenges. The report highlights wealth gaps (severe income disparity) followed by unsustainable government debt (chronic fiscal imbalances) as the top two most prevalent global risks. Following a year scarred by extreme weather, from Hurricane Sandy to flooding in...
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January 7, 2013
Which risks worry you the most?
From the prospect of the United States teetering over a metaphorical “fiscal cliff” to all too real natural disasters wreaking havoc in Manila or Manhattan, risks of every kind have loomed large over the last year. Tomorrow, the World Economic Forum’s Risk Response Network will publish its Global Risks 2013 report, capturing a broad swathe of expert opinion on the most pressing risks to face mankind over the coming decade.
By identifying 50 global risks – from water supply crises to fiscal imbalances – and tracking every year how they are perceived in terms of likelihood, impact and...
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January 7, 2013
Will a lack of leadership put the world at risk?
“The US-led geopolitical order is gone and is not being replaced,” warns Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, in the latest of the World Economic Forum’s presidential briefings for the Annual Meeting 2013 in Davos-Klosters.
In a stark survey of the current geopolitical landscape, Bremmer points to the growth and cultural divergence of emerging economies, the distraction of the US’s traditional allies and its new unwillingness to fulfil its traditional “world leader” role, as the main reasons why a potentially dangerous global leadership vacuum is emerging.
He believes this vacuum “...
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January 7, 2013
Global Risks Report 2013 - Risk Cases and Resilience
The Global Risks Report 2013 captures how over 1000 experts from industry, government and academia see the most pressing threats facing the world over the next ten years. It reveals how 50 global risks are perceived in terms of likelihood, impact and interconnections. http://www.weforum.org/globalrisks2013
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January 7, 2013
What if soil runs out?
John Crawford is Head of Sustainability and Complex Systems in the Charles Perkins Centre, and the Judith and David Coffey Chair in Sustainable Agriculture. A broken food system is destroying the soil and fuelling health crises as well as conflicts, warns Professor John Crawford of the University of Sydney.Is soil really in danger of running out?A rough calculation of current rates of soil degradation suggests we have about 60 years of topsoil left. Some 40% of soil used for agriculture around the world is classed as either degraded or seriously degraded – the latter means that 70% of...
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December 14, 2012
Getting climate change back on the global agenda
In a series of blog posts curated by the World Economic Forum’s Climate Change Initiatives, a number of leading voices will present their perspectives on climate change. Contributions are linked to the Forum’s Green Growth Action Alliance project and the Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Climate Change. In the following post, Chiemi Hayashi, Head of Research for the World Economic Forum’s Risk Response Network, shares her perspective on climate change.
The idea that our world is at risk from climate change is nothing new. Although recent disasters like Hurricane Sandy and this year’s...
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November 29, 2012
Why investors should care about climate risk
In a series of blog posts curated by the World Economic Forum’s Climate Change Initiatives, a number of leading voices will present their perspectives on climate change. Contributions are linked to the Forum’s Green Growth Action Alliance project and the Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Climate Change. In the following post, Manuel Lewin, the Head of Responsible Investment at Zurich Insurance Company Ltd, shares his perspective on climate-friendly investment.
When the monsoon rains began to fall in Thailand in October, 2011, few observers could have anticipated that the subsequent flooding...
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November 28, 2012
The risks of climate change – a view from Chile
In a series of blog posts curated by the World Economic Forum’s Climate Change Initiatives, a number of leading voices will present their perspectives on climate change. Contributions are linked to the Forum’s Green Growth Action Alliance project and the Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Climate Change. In the following post, Rodrigo Pérez Mackenna, Minister of Housing and Urbanism for Chile and Chair of the Global Agenda Council on Catastrophic Risks shares his insights.
Catastrophic risks are defined as events with a low probability but a big economic and social impact. A natural event could...
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November 27, 2012
What if a deadly new virus jumped from animals to humans?
Nathan Wolfe is Visiting Professor in Human Biology at Stanford University and the Chief Executive Officer of Metabiota, a company which specializes in microbial threat detection. He is also a World Economic Forum Young Global Leader. His recent book, The Viral Storm: Dawn of a New Pandemic Age is published by Times Books. We dodged a bullet with bird flu but next time we might not be so lucky, says “virus hunter” Professor Nathan Wolfe. The interview was carried out by the World Economic Forum’s Risk Response Network.Why is this something that worries you? What warning...
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November 20, 2012
Summit on the Global Agenda
12-14 November - Dubai, United Arab Emirates Recorded sessions - English جلسة مسجلةNovember 12 November 13 November 1412:00 - 12:30 Opening Plenary: Welcome Addressللمشاهدة 08.15 - 09.15 The Geopolitical Outlook: Future Shocksللمشاهدة08.15 - 9.30 Meeting Grand Challenges for the 21st Centuryللمشاهدة14:00 - 15:00 Global Governance Outlookللمشاهدة 17.30 - 18.30 Global Growth Challenges: Regional Responsesللمشاهدة12.00 - 13.00 Improving Global Decision-makingللمشاهدة
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November 12, 2012
What if young people in India and Pakistan increasingly fall prey to extremists?
Pranjal Sharma warns that unemployed people with nothing to lose could become potent weapons in the hands of extremists. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.Why are you worried about rising extremism? The issue is the scale rather than the activity. There is always going to be a certain amount of extremism, whether we’re talking about the far right, the far left, people who stir up ethnic grievances, religious fundamentalists, nationalists or others. If a few thousand people are involved, it generally won’t have a big impact, but once millions get...
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November 6, 2012
What if 2 billion people had no power?
Morgan Bazilian, Deputy Director of the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis, warns that neglecting the need for rapid and scaled-up provision of modern energy services will dim an otherwise bright future for developing economies. The interview was carried out by the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.Why is this issue on your radar at the moment? The world’s food, energy and water resources are already experiencing significant stresses and shortfalls. Yet, in the next 20 years, demand for these services is projected to increase dramatically as populations and...
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October 26, 2012
What if there was a large-scale Internet failure?
Mustaque Ahamad, Computing Professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology, says that the IT industry puts functionality above security at its peril. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.Why is this on your radar at the moment? What keeps me awake at night is the fact that we don’t have a good understanding of the risks we face, now that more and more people and things are connected to the Internet. Cyber attacks have become very easy to mount, but they are still hard to defend against.How would the situation unfold? We could see something like a...
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October 16, 2012
What if there was no more space in space?
Brian Weeden of the Secure World Foundation says that debris and a growing demand for radio frequencies threaten our future in space. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.What does this question mean? Isn’t space unfathomably vast? Yes, but the space around our planet is increasingly congested. Fifty years ago, the era of space exploration began with just the US and the Soviet Union, which were primarily going up there for military reasons. Today, more than 50 countries operate at least one satellite, and there are also all sorts of private entities...
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October 5, 2012
What if space was the next frontier for war?
Theresa Hitchens, Director of the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), warns that strikes against satellites could push earth wars to a new level. The views expressed here are her own, not those of the United Nations. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.Why is this issue something that worries you? We may not be about to see a real life Death Star hoving into view, but we will see earth wars elevated into space. It is almost inevitable that if a major conflict arises between developed powers, satellites will become targets. This was not...
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October 3, 2012
What if we lost the use of antibiotics?
Otto Cars, Professor of Infectious Diseases at Uppsala University, warns that the days of curing pneumonia and carrying out organ transplants will be over unless we tackle antibiotic resistance. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.Why is this something that worries you? When Alexander Fleming was awarded the Nobel Prize for discovering penicillin in 1945, in his acceptance speech he warned that the misuse of this medicine would lead to the development of bacterial resistance. Researchers have always known that if you use antibiotics, bacteria will...
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September 25, 2012
What if rich countries shut the door on immigration?
Ian Goldin, Director of the Oxford Martin School, warns that a backlash against immigration would wreak havoc on everything from hospitals to the high-tech industry. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.Why is this issue on your radar at the moment? We are seeing an increasing focus on immigration in response to the severe economic crisis, rising unemployment and falling living standards. As has happened throughout history, there is a tendency to blame immigrants for these problems. Politically, it is an easy option, but it has never worked out too...
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September 21, 2012
Global Risks Review: Prognosis for East Asia
The global growth problem will slow down Asian economies because of fear of a lack of confidence; how to revitalize that confidence is crucial for the world economy.Uprising nationalism and protectionism is used by some politicians to play short-term political games, while income inequity can fuel potential nationalism, which may lead to misunderstanding and conflicts.Global risk category and its Interconnection map (2012) show that there could be more than 50 types of risks globally. They can be categorized as preventable, strategic and external risks.Lack of confidence is a big issue for...
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September 12, 2012
What if a hacker caused a large-scale Internet outage?
Rod Beckstrom on what would happen if the internet “went dark” – and how to avoid it. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.What is your main field of expertise and current research? I’m President and CEO of ICANN, Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers. My areas of expertise are the Internet, cybersecurity and organizational leadership.Given your research, what would you say is the most under-appreciated risk? One under-appreciated risk is the threat to the security of the Internet itself. The Internet system was designed to be open and...
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June 12, 2012
What if illicit trade goes unchecked?
Steven Broad on the impact of the illegal trade in everything from tuna to counterfeit drugs. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.What is your main field of expertise and current research? Illicit trade covers a range of different sectors, from illegal trade in natural resources, the supply of counterfeit goods, smuggling, trade in illegal drugs and weapons, and people trafficking. At TRAFFIC, we are specialists in tackling unsustainable and illegal trade in timber, fisheries products and other wildlife commodities.What would you say is the...
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June 7, 2012
What if women made up half of the world’s decision makers?
Laura Liswood argues that our ability to solve problems would improve if women were better represented. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.What is your main field of expertise? Developing policies of diversity and inclusion that lead to women’s empowerment.Given your research, what would you say is the most under-appreciated risk? The most under-appreciated risk is that organisations, corporations, countries and their governments are too slow to realise that women have to be included in the decision making on issues that impact us all. Take...
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June 6, 2012
What if there were no more coral reefs?
The loss of coral reefs could threaten the livelihoods of 500 million people, warns Pavan Sukhdev. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.What is your main field of expertise and current research? My main field of expertise is the economics of ecosystems and biodiversity, but currently I am examining the corporation and trying to understand how today’s business needs to change to provide a green economy. This involves looking at corporate values as well as the costs of losing biodiversity and ecosystems.Given your research, what would you...
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June 5, 2012
Increasing East Asia's Risk Resilience
How can East Asia improve its resilience to extreme shocks in an increasingly interdependent world?Dimensions to be addressed:Exploring the extreme shocks that contributed to building resilience in East AsiaImpact of the behavioural aspects of risk-taking on decision-makingStructural, economic and human capabilities to build risk resilienceBuilding competitiveness and managing finite resourcesKey PointsGreater interconnectivity with the global economy means heightened risk and increased exposure to the impact of sudden shocksWhile East Asian economies are more resilient today than before,...
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May 31, 2012
What if the Internet collapsed?
Rob Wainwright, the Director of Europol, on how the infrastructure underpinning the World Wide Web is vulnerable to attack.What is your main area of expertise and interest? My field of expertise is combating serious international crime and terrorism, including cyber crime.What would you say is the greatest or the most under-estimated risk in your field? I would say the instability and vulnerability of the Internet’s infrastructure. We are living in an increasingly hyperconnected world, which was one of the big themes of Davos 2012. We now have 5 billion devices, from computers to cars to...
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May 31, 2012
Risk and Responsibility in a Hyperconnected World: Pathways to Global Cyber Resilience
Risk and Responsibility in a Hyperconnected World – Pathways to Global Cyber Resilience examines some of the key threats posed by hyperconnectivity and what should be done about them. Produced in collaboration with Deloitte, the report provides a multistakeholder perspective on ways to deal with increasing cyber attacks and to improve corporate governance.Aimed at executives, non-specialists and experienced practitioners alike, the report discusses key aspects of cyber resilience such as information sharing, trust and the economics of cyber security. It offers a number of recommendations for...
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May 29, 2012
What if globalisation went into reverse?
Rolf Alter questions whether 150 years of progress could be eroded in the aftermath of the financial crisis. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.What is your main field of expertise? My main field of expertise is public governance and within that, a large part of my time is devoted to work on risk management.Given your research, what would you say is the most under-appreciated risk? We have been living through 30 years of very rapid and very profound globalisation, which has always been carried out and supported in the name of the efficiency of...
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May 22, 2012
What if there was a global cyber pandemic?
Robert Madelin on how a cyber attack could threaten the fabric of modern society. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.Given your research, what would you say is the most under-appreciated risk? In terms of under-appreciated risks, I would say that thanks to SARS and bird flu, public health risks are better appreciated now. But then if I come from that world to the information society, as I did about two years ago, I would say the risk is the lack of any sense of awareness of cybersecurity of similar proportions.A key under-appreciated risk is...
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May 18, 2012
Global Risks 2012 - Seventh Edition - Chinese
Economic imbalances and social inequality risk reversing the gains of globalization, warns the World Economic Forum in its report Global Risks 2012. These are the findings of a survey of 469 experts and industry leaders, indicating a shift of concern from environmental risks to socioeconomic risks compared to a year ago. Respondents worry that further economic shocks and social upheaval could roll back the progress globalization has brought, and feel that the world’s institutions are ill-equipped to cope with today’s interconnected, rapidly evolving risks. The findings of the survey fed into...
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May 16, 2012
What if global institutions fail?
Douglas Rediker on how a smouldering financial crisis could push existing power structures beyond their limits. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.What is your main field of expertise and current research?I focus on international finance, international institutions, capital markets and the broad strategic and foreign policy implications of finance and economics.Given your research, what would you say is the most under-appreciated risk?I think that the most under-appreciated risk is the potential failure of international and global organizations to rise to...
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May 8, 2012
What if frustrated young people see no alternative to terrorism?
Ikram ul-Majeed Sehgal, who has rehabilitated former terrorists, on the risks of allowing hopelessness to take root. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.What is your main field of expertise and current research? I am the Chairman of the Pathfinder Group, which is the largest private security company in Pakistan. Our 18,000 guards provide security for diplomats, banks, commercial properties and multinational organizations and we protect both the American Embassy and the United Nations building which are prime targets for terrorists. I also moonlight...
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May 4, 2012
Global Risks 2012 - Seventh Edition - Japanese
Economic imbalances and social inequality risk reversing the gains of globalization, warns the World Economic Forum in its report Global Risks 2012. These are the findings of a survey of 469 experts and industry leaders, indicating a shift of concern from environmental risks to socioeconomic risks compared to a year ago. Respondents worry that further economic shocks and social upheaval could roll back the progress globalization has brought, and feel that the world’s institutions are ill-equipped to cope with today’s interconnected, rapidly evolving risks. The findings of the survey fed into...
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May 1, 2012
What if unemployment threatens our democratic way of life?
Sharan Burrow warns that we face a downward spiral without coordinated international efforts on job creation, in an interview for the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series. You can read the World Economic Forum’s latest report on employment issues here.What is your main field of expertise and current research? My job is to represent working people. There are many ways in which I do this, so area of expertise is an interesting question. It could be in a crisis response frame in terms of conflict or risk for workers, or it could be in a development frame, proposing alternate...
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April 30, 2012
What if there was a catastrophic volcanic eruption?
Satoru Nishikawa asks if we are prepared for the ash clouds and climate change that would follow a major eruption. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.What is your main field of expertise and current research? I have dealt with disaster reduction policies, disaster response and emergency humanitarian assistance in situations where a major accident or disaster affects large numbers of people over a wide geographical region. I am especially interested in disaster mitigation.From your research, what would you say is the most under-appreciated...
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April 27, 2012
What if the American middle class loses hope?
Raghuram Rajan on how political divisions and a changing labour market are threatening the American dream. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.What is your main field of expertise and current research? I am a financial economist and do research in the areas of banking, corporate finance, international finance and financial institutions. I also do work on international governance. Of course, an economist today has to opine on many things outside their specific area of expertise.Given your research, what would you say is the most under-appreciated...
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April 17, 2012
What if security as we know it breaks down?
Sania Nishtar on why interconnected crises could spell the end of conventional security. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.What is your main field of expertise and current research? My main area of work is health policy and systems analysis and research, and surrounding areas of governance. So, while the key focus is on health, there are many aspects of health systems that cross-cut governance, which is why I am interested in broader issues of governance as they impact health and related social sector processes.Given your research, what...
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April 16, 2012
What if there was a cold war between the US and China?
Ian Bremmer on the four challenges that could push China and the US to the brink of a new cold war. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.What is your main field of expertise and current research? I view myself as someone who focuses on global political risk, on understanding how politics intersects with the global marketplace. The areas that I am most personally focused on within that space would be states in transition, which historically have been in emerging markets. However, frankly, when we look at today’s environment, states in transition...
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April 12, 2012
What if we fail to adapt to the new era of scarcity?
Dominic Waughray,Head of Environmental Initiatives at the World Economic Forum, explores what could happen if the world fails to get to grips with the new reality of extreme weather and scarce resources. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.What is your main field of expertise and current research? I am Senior Director of Environmental Initiatives at the World Economic Forum. This means that I have an institutional, professional and personal interest in looking at environmental and sustainability issues within the context of economic growth.Given your...
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April 11, 2012
What if we fail to provide for our ageing population?
Dr Alexandre Kalache, an expert on the ageing demographic, on why we need a radical overhaul of retirement. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series.What is your main field of expertise and current research? I am a medical doctor and my expertise is on ageing, population ageing and the implications for society at large.Given your research, what would you say is the most under-appreciated risk? The risk we face is ignoring the consequences of the ageing global population – and in failing to provide for it.So, what would you say is the risk if we ignore...
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April 5, 2012
What if the Arab Spring turns into an African Summer?
Achankeng Leke, Director of McKinsey & Company, South Africa, questions whether Africa could experience a wave of protest. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series, which explores various hypothetical risk scenarios.What is your main field of expertise and current research? My main field of expertise is Africa. I am a Senior Partner at McKinsey & Company and lead a lot of McKinsey’s work across Africa. We do a lot of research on economic development and on what it will take to drive the continuous growth of Africa.Given your research, what would...
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March 28, 2012
What if we went back to the year 2000?
Stewart Wallis, Executive Director of the New Economics Foundation, assesses the consequences if the world returns to business as usual instead of learning the lessons of the financial crisis. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network‘s “What if?” series, which explores various hypothetical risk scenarios.What is your main field of expertise and current research? I am the Director of the New Economics Foundation. My background is working in business as an economist at the World Bank and with Oxfam as their International Director. My area of expertise is the systemic nature...
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March 27, 2012
What if the unemployment time bomb explodes?
Labour expert Stephen Pursey explores the disastrous consequences of failing to provide jobs for the world’s bulging population of young people. The interview is part of the Risk Response Network’s “What if?” series, which explores various hypothetical risk scenarios.What is your main field of expertise and current research? I study the world of work and how it connects to the global economy. As the Director of the Department of Policy Integration at the International Labour Organization, it is my job to try and connect the work of the ILO with the work of other international organizations in...
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March 22, 2012
Risks in a Hyperconnected World
Thursday
26 January
This
session was on the record and open to reporting press.
Incidents
from digital crime to massive incidents of data theft are increasing
significantly, with major political, social and economic
implications.
This
session examines risk management and risk resiliency in this new
context and builds from a related initiative of the Risk Response
Network and the Information Technology Partnership community.
Key
Points
The
tradecraft and addressable audience of cybercriminals is rapidly
growing.
Risk
responses must follow a comprehensive and integrated approach....
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January 26, 2012
Risks in the Global Supply Chain
Wednesday
25 January
This
session was on the record and open to reporting press.
From Japan
to Thailand, the vulnerability with concentrating key elements of a
global supply chain is readily apparent.
This
session examines risk management and risk resiliency in this new
context, and builds on a related initiative of the Risk Response
Network.
Key
Points
Piracy,
the effects of climate change, threats to cybersecurity and the
concentration of resources in a small number of locations are key
business risks.
Governments
and businesses need to work together for better regulation, and for...
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January 25, 2012
Global Risks 2012: The Seeds of Dystopia
Wednesday
25 January
This
session was on the record and open to reporting press.
The
realization that many historical indicators of economic and societal
well-being are regressing requires a rethinking of related global
risks.
This
session explores possible contingencies as highlighted in the Global
Risks 2012 report.
Key
Points
It
is hard to deny that the risks of dystopia – and the accompanying
economic and social instability – are real
But
the risks are not insurmountable if the right policies are adopted
Such
policy responses include greater investment in human resources,
education...
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January 25, 2012
New Models for Addressing Supply Chain and Transport Risk
Trends such as globalization, lean processes, mass travel and the geographical concentration of production have made supply chain and transport networks more efficient, but have also changed their risk profile. This report, produced in collaboration with Accenture, calls for new models to address supply chain and transport risks. It highlights the urgent need to review risk management practices to keep pace with rapidly changing contingencies facing the supply chain, transport, aviation and travel sectors.
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January 23, 2012
Global Risks 2012 - Seventh Edition
Economic imbalances and social inequality risk reversing the gains of globalization, warns the World Economic Forum in its report Global Risks 2012. These are the findings of a survey of 469 experts and industry leaders, indicating a shift of concern from environmental risks to socioeconomic risks compared to a year ago. Respondents worry that further economic shocks and social upheaval could roll back the progress globalization has brought, and feel that the world’s institutions are ill-equipped to cope with today’s interconnected, rapidly evolving risks. The findings of the survey fed into...
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January 10, 2012
Summit on the Global Agenda 2011
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates 10-11 October
The Summit on the Global Agenda is an annual global brainstorming that brings together members of the World Economic Forum’s Network of Global Agenda Councils. For the fourth consecutive year, over 700 members of the Network of Global Agenda gathered at the Summit to address over 70 areas, and comprise the most relevant experts from academia, business, civil society and government.
During two days, global experts from over 80 countries – thought leaders from academia, business, government and civil society – identified key issues, explored risks...
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October 9, 2011
Annual Report 2010-2011
2010-2011, our 41st year since foundation, has
confirmed, if confirmation were needed, the necessity for an independent international organization within
the global governance system that has the ability and credibility to bring
together all stakeholders in an independent space to work together on issues
that concern us all.
This year the fragility of traditional governance
structures has been graphically demonstrated by events. During our Annual
Meeting, we watched in real time as new technology enabled the flowering of
rapid and varied civil movements across the Middle East. We have...
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September 6, 2011
Global Risks 2011 Japanese
This report aims to enhance understanding of how a comprehensive set of global risks are evolving, how their interaction impacts a variety of stakeholders, and what trade-offs are involved in managing them. Global Risks 2011, Sixth Edition is a useful tool for policy-makers, CEOs, senior executives and thought leaders around the world. It aims to equip institutions to understand and respond to global risks and to embrace change as a source of innovation.
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June 22, 2011
A Vision for Managing Natural Disaster Risk
A Vision for Managing Natural Disaster Risk outlines recommendations to improve risk management and reduce the impact of natural disasters. The report, written in collaboration with ARUP, Lloyds of London and Swiss Re, among other companies, provides recommendations to reduce the impact of natural disasters through enhancing physical and financial preparedness by using the resources of both the public and private sectors.
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April 27, 2011
Water Security: The Water-Energy-Food-Climate Nexus
Business leaders at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in 2008 set out a Call to Action on Water, to raise awareness and develop a better understanding of how water is linked to economic growth across a nexus of issues and to make clear the water security challenge we face if a business as usual approach to water management is maintained. This report captures where the debate is now and sets out the challenge we face if nothing is done to improve water management in the next two decades.
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January 24, 2011
Private Sector Development in Haiti: Opportunities for Investment, Job Creation and Growth
The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2010 took place days after the earthquake that struck Haiti on 12 January. During a special session in Davos, the Forum pledged to work in partnership with its stakeholders to assist in Haiti’s recovery by focusing specifically on economic development. This report, produced in partnership with the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), presents the strategy for sustainable growth in Haiti and identifies opportunities for involvement by different international stakeholders to advance that...
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January 24, 2011
Innovations in Corporate Global Citizenship: Responding to the Haiti Earthquake
The unparalleled disaster in Haiti required an unprecedented response. In the following report we present examples of corporate global citizenship in Haiti following the tragic earthquake of 12 January 2010. The purpose of doing so is to highlight the increasing role of the private sector in contributing to innovations in humanitarian assistance through tri-sector partnerships. We also identify remaining gaps and hope that this report, through raising awareness of these gaps, will help to eliminate them as responses to future disasters.
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January 24, 2011
Outlook on the Global Agenda 2011
The Outlook on the Global Agenda 2011 brings together the ideas that came out of the world's largest brainstorm, the Summit on the Global Agenda 2010 in Dubai. It outlines the shape of the new reality that will be discussed at the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos and through 2011. This new reality is manifest by:Global power shifts: economic and political power is no longer concentrated in the hands of the developed economies. Emerging markets have become centres of both economic growth and geo-political decision-making.Economic uncertainty: There is a high...
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January 20, 2011
Global Risks Report 2011
The financial crisis has drained the world’s capacity for dealing with shocks. The frequency and severity of risks to global stability have amplified, while the ability of global governance systems to deal with them has not.
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January 11, 2011
Global Talent Risks Report 2011
Industries and countries worldwide will require major increases of highly educated people in their workforces to sustain economic growth, argues a new report prepared by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with The Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The report, Global Talent Risk – Seven Responses, analyses projected talent shortages by 2020 and 2030 in 25 countries, 13 industries and 9 occupational clusters.The Full Report (PDF)
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January 6, 2011
Annual Report 2009-2010
In the past year, the World Economic Forum has once again been privileged to demonstrate that it is an organization uniquely suited to addressing the challenges of the 21st century by both tackling immediate problems and shaping solutions to global issues that require significant time and great care to implement.The work of the past year has shown that the efforts of all stakeholders are essential to adapt the international system to our increasingly interconnected and interdependent world. The cross-cutting efforts of our undertakings have drawn on nearly every aspect of our...
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January 6, 2011
Engineering & Construction Disaster Resource Partnership - A New Private-Public Partnership Model for Disaster Response
This report summarizes an ongoing effort by the World Economic Forum to serve as a catalyst for greater private sector involvement in responding to natural disasters. Although it is generally recognized that the private sector has an important role to play in addressing the increasing socio-economic consequences of disasters, there has been relatively little effort to understand the potential for contributions by specific industries, or to develop models of engagement that recognize the need for local action and ownership while being replicable, scalable and justifiable in business terms.This...
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December 22, 2010
Everybody’s Business: Strengthening International Cooperation in a More Interdependent World
The Global Redesign Initiative was a global, multistakeholder dialogue on the future of international cooperation. Set up in the midst of the global financial crisis, its purpose was to stimulate thinking and debate about how the international community and its institutions and organizations in their widest sense can be adapted to contemporary challenges. The distillation of this process has helped the Forum's many communities to develop proposals that seek to highlight potential responses to the challenge of adapting to a new global business and social environment.
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December 20, 2010
Global Risks 2010
Warnings of the long shadow of the financial crisisThe result of extensive input throughout the previous year by experts from business, academia, and the public sector, Global Risks 2010 highlights a number of slow-moving risks exacerbated by the financial crisis and global economic downturn, and stresses the continued need to further enhance global resilience to risks. Global governance gaps, an issue already to the fore in Global Risks 2009, continues to be at the nexus of global risks and the need for coordinated global action is increasingly urgent.
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November 15, 2010
Industry Risks
In an interdependent, fast-moving world, organizations are increasingly confronted by risks that are complex in nature and global in consequence. Such risks can be difficult to anticipate and respond to, even for the most seasoned business leaders.The World Economic Forum’s Risk Response Network provides leaders from the private and public sectors with an independent platform to map, monitor and mitigate global risks.Its annual Global Risks Report analyses the perceived impact and likelihood of 50 prevalent global risks over a ten year time horizon. The 50 global risks are divided into five...
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November 9, 2010
World Economic Forum on Europe and Central Asia 2008
The global financial meltdown loomed over the meeting, but participants remained cautiously optimistic about the future of the region despite the clouds of chaos and uncertainty gathering at its borders. There was general acknowledgement that the financial crisis would have an impact on emerging markets as it is difficult to decouple from the seismic global events of the previous months.
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November 9, 2010
Africa@Risk 2008
This report has been prepared by the Global Risk Team for theWorld Economic Forum on Africa (Cape Town, South Africa,4-6 June 2008). The latest insights into trends, potentialimpacts and mitigation relevant to four key risks facing Africawere identified and explored:1. Food and Freshwater Security - How best can Africacope with increasing food and freshwater insecurity? Whatare the risks and opportunities for the region?2. Geopolitical Instability - Can Africa sustain andconsolidate progress on transparent and democraticallyaccountable governance? Can it increase its institutionalcapacity to...
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November 5, 2010
Regional & Country Risks
In an interdependent, fast-moving world, organizations are increasingly confronted by risks that are complex in nature and global in consequence. Such risks can be difficult to anticipate and respond to, even for the most seasoned business leaders.The World Economic Forum’s Risk Response Network provides leaders from the private and public sectors with an independent platform to map, monitor and mitigate global risks.Its annual Global Risks Report analyses the perceived impact and likelihood of 50 prevalent global risks over a ten year time horizon. The 50 global risks are divided...
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November 5, 2010
World Economic Forum on East Asia 2010
East Asia’s lead in the global economic recovery has been underscored by increasing regional economic cooperation, robust domestic consumption and coordinated government stimulus measures. Alongside the remarkable economic momentum and progress of China and India, ASEAN’s market of 580 million consumers is moving towards economic integration by 2015.
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November 3, 2010
Disaster Management
Disaster Resource PartnershipThe Engineering & Construction Disaster Resource Partnership (DRP) is a new model for coordinated private sector partnership in response to natural disasters. It has been developed through case studies of past private sector interventions, numerous workshops and interviews with key humanitarian actors in disasters, and has benefited from continuous input and direction by the working group executives of the World Economic Forum’s Engineering and Construction (E&C) Member and Partner companies.To reduce suffering and save lives, the vision of the DRP is to...
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October 31, 2010
The Middle East and North Africa at Risk 2010
This ground-breaking report builds on the Forum's expertise in global risks by providing relevant macro analyses that are particularly important for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The report focuses on three risk areas that are specifically relevant to the region: water scarcity, energy security and underinvestment in infrastructure. Not only are these pressing issues in their own right given the region’s social, geopolitical, economic and environmental context, but all three are also highly interconnected. Examining interlinkages between these issues provides greater insight...
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October 23, 2010
Financial Governance
The global financial crisis revealed major shortcomings in the system of institutional and regulatory governance. To move beyond the crisis, it will be necessary to improve current structures and develop a more fair and efficient structure of global governance that reflects changes in the global political and economic landscape.The principle of equal participation and inclusive cooperation should be followed in improving global governance. It is imperative to raise the voice and representation of developing countries.It has become a consensus of all parties to improve current structures...
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October 20, 2010
Sustainable Consumption
Each year until 2030, at least 150 million people will be entering the middle class. This will bring almost 60% of the world’s population into a middle income bracket. Over the same period energy demand is projected to increase by 40%, and water demand is expected to outstrip supply by 40%.Providing for the next generation of consumers in a sustainable manner presents both a challenge and an opportunity. Leaders can position themselves to succeed in this changing framework by redefining their strategies. New products, services and value chains can embrace "absolute sustainability".These...
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October 19, 2010
