Strategic Foresight
Introduction
Strategic Dialogue on the future of the South Caucasus and Central Asia
The South Caucasus and Central Asian region has recorded significant economic growth and development over the past decade. Individual countries have been at the forefront of this growth: Azerbaijan's economy has grown at double-digit rates over the past decade while Kazakhstan, along with other countries in the region, has made great strides in business capacity. With potential growth for most countries expected to reach 5-7% in 2013 (IMF), the region as a whole presents significant untapped potential given its natural resources and strategic location at the crossroads of Europe, Asia...
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April 22, 2013
World Economic Forum Strategic Dialogue on the Future of the South Caucasus and Central Asia
The countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia have made significant strides since they emerged from the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. Energy-rich Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have registered double-digit growth rates and used the proceeds to invest in physical infrastructure. Others, like Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic, have also made progress in developing market economies and state institutions.Twenty years into the transition, much has been achieved in a region rich in natural resources and human capital. But can even its...
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April 17, 2013
What will economic democracy mean for South Korea?
South Korea is at a critical inflection point. Despite winning with a majority, Madam Park Geun-hye, who has been inaugurated as President of the Repubic of Korea today, assumes leadership of a country which remains divided on many key issues.The creation of a social safety net befitting of a US$ 1 trillion economy and reform of the system of large family-owned conglomerates known as chaebols have become the dominant issues in South Korean politics. Some fear the conglomerate system, responsible for South Korea’s catapult to Asian Tiger status in the 1990s, is now disabling and stifling...
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February 25, 2013
Is the future of health beyond our imagination?
The assumptions of today blind us from seeing the radical changes needed for healthcare, argue David Gleicher and Darko Lovric. Read the Sustainable Health Systems: Visions, Strategies and Scenarios report.Before Davos became what it is today, it was known as a sanatorium. With its clean air and calm character Davos was a place where the sick went to overcome illness in a pre-antibiotic world. The setting in Davos is very different today, and of the thousands who make the journey to the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meetings, few will be aware of its past. A little pill has seen to...
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January 24, 2013
Scenarios for the Russian Federation
The Scenarios for the Russian Federation were developed through a strategic dialogue process engaging over 350 business, policy and academic leaders throughout 2012. The scenarios report focuses on possible future pathways for the Russian economy and pays particular attention to three critical uncertainties: ongoing evolutions in the global energy landscape, the quality of Russia's domestic institutional environment and dynamics of social cohesion within the country. Each scenario is aimed at challenging conventional wisdom and questioning existing assumptions about Russia's economic future....
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January 23, 2013
Russia’s economy: A great run but an uncertain future
Stephan Mergenthaler and Andrew D. Bishop on the hurdles Russia faces.The Russian economy has had a great run over the past decade, as evidenced by its sevenfold increase in GDP per capita between 2000 and 2011. Yet despite this impressive growth story, the factors that underpinned Russia’s economic development over the past ten years are fraught with growing uncertainty. As the World Economic Forum’s Scenarios for the Russian Federation highlight, while Russia’s economy has grown substantially over the past years, it has also grown increasingly fragile.Russia has missed an opportunity to use...
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January 23, 2013
Young and Russian: should I stay or should I go?
The choice of whether to stay in the Russian Federation or leave the country has been a hotly debated point and discussion topic for Russian youth over the course of 2012, and a key issue in the Forum’s latest Scenarios for the Russian Federation. The members of the Russian Global Shapers community, who are among the country’s young leaders, thinkers and achievers, are no exception in the decision. In a survey held in Kaliningrad, Novosibirsk, St Petersburg and Moscow, hub members shared their arguments for and against staying in the country in a split vote.For those who consider life outside...
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January 22, 2013
How Russia could fuel Asia’s growth
Growing Asian demand presents a golden opportunity for Russia to diversify away from its primarily European export market, writes Nobuo Tanaka. Read the World Economic Forum’s report: Scenarios for the Russian Federation.Russia and Asia could be an energy partnership made in heaven. Two thirds of future energy demand growth will come from Asia, while Russia is now the biggest gas and oil producer in the world.China is growing so fast that it will certainly need to import oil and gas to feed its ravenous economy. This is despite its ambitious efforts in the fields of energy...
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January 22, 2013
What would happen to Russia if oil prices slumped?
Michael Bradshaw asks whether Russia, for all its economic growth, is too dependent on natural resources. Read the World Economic Forum’s report: Scenarios for the Russian Federation.The Russian Federation’s economic growth story has had more twists and turns in it than a Danish thriller.Almost two decades after transitioning from a planned to a market economy, and following a decade of buoyant growth, the country was hit hard by the financial and economic crisis of 2008 and 2009. Oil prices collapsed and Russia’s financial sector suffered greatly from limited...
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January 22, 2013
Sustainable Health Systems - Visions, Strategies, Critical Uncertainties and Scenarios
The World Economic Forum has made health a priority global initiative, recognizing it as central to the Forum’s overall mission to improve the state of the world.Looking at health as a fundamental economic issue, the Forum aims to address two major gaps-access to health and access to care - making health and care an investment for economic development and growth.Executive Summary
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January 18, 2013
The challenge of resilient dynamism
Our world is continuously faced with unexpected events that could potentially have enormous consequences. From the financial crisis to the Arab Spring to the Tohoku earthquake and Fukushima disaster, they characterize the type of events that throughout history have challenged and changed the structure and functions of the ecological and social systems that we have created and participate in.The consequences of these events are more and more determined by the interconnectivity of our world. Unexpected events will continue to hit us, their effects expanding through the interdependency of the...
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January 17, 2013
The Future Role of Civil Society
Civil society actors – including NGOs, labour organizations, faith groups and a range of other emerging actors – are more important than ever. The past decade has seen the rise of the increasingly aware, connected and educated global citizen demanding new ways of engaging with business and governments in a time of economic and political turbulence.The Future Role of Civil Society report is the outcome of an eight-month project, in collaboration with KPMG International and involving over 200 leaders and experts, looking at how trends in technology, politics, society, economics and the...
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January 16, 2013
Scenarios for the Russian Federation
Despite a decade of high growth, Russia's economic model is at a turning point. Against a backdrop of significant global vulnerabilities, what is the outlook for the country's economic development?
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January 15, 2013
Young Global Leaders: Guide to Influencing Complex Systems
This report marks the culmination of one of the main Young Global Leaders community-wide efforts of 2012, which aimed to dissect and understand the complexity of the current global context. For a visualization of the Young Global Leaders Influencing Complex Systems initiative, see: seedvisualization.com/complex-systems/wef.The report and the broader complex systems initiative were launched with the intent of better understanding the nuances of systemic complexity and intervening in such challenges in logical, informed ways. Over the course of the past year, more than 400 Young Global...
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January 14, 2013
What would you ask Russia’s top political leaders?
PусскийThe World Economic Forum has engaged more than 350 leading Russian politicians, academic experts, and private sector to explore critical questions about the future of the Russian economy. A final report detailing the findings of this project will be released at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos in late January 2013.If you had the chance to ask one question to the top political leaders of Russia, what would your question be?On this occasion, Russia’s top political leadership will be answering selected questions coming from social media channels. This is your...
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December 17, 2012
Ten things you need to know about the future of health
What will the future of health and healthcare look like? In a series of blog posts by the World Economic Forum’s Strategic Foresight and Health teams, a number of leading voices will present their own visions for the future. Contributions are linked to the Scenarios for Sustainable Health Systems project, the Workplace Wellness Alliance and the Healthy Living Initiative. In the following post, Gary Phillips, Director and Head of Healthcare Industries at the World Economic Forum, shares his perspective on the future of health. Your smartphone will be a more useful medical instrument to...
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November 23, 2012
Who’s afraid of mobile Internet in healthcare?
What will the future of health and healthcare look like? In a series of blog posts by the World Economic Forum’s Strategic Foresight and Health teams, a number of leading voices will present their own visions for the future. Contributions are linked to the Scenarios for Sustainable Health Systems project, the Workplace Wellness Alliance and the Healthy Living Initiative. In the following post, Andrew Thompson, Chief Executive Officer of Proteus Biomedical, shares his perspective on the future of health.Healthcare in the 21st century will be transformed by a new utility more available than...
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November 23, 2012
The globalization of non-communicable diseases
What will the future of health and healthcare look like? In a series of blog posts by the World Economic Forum’s Strategic Foresight and Health teams, a number of leading voices will present their own visions for the future. Contributions are linked to the Scenarios for Sustainable Health Systems project, the Workplace Wellness Alliance and the Healthy Living Initiative. In the following post, Julio Frenk, Dean of the Harvard School of Public Health, shares his perspective on the future of health.The acronym NCD – non-communicable diseases – evolved as a way to draw a contrast between two...
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November 22, 2012
A healthcare scenario for 2040
What will the future of health and healthcare look like? In a series of blog posts by the World Economic Forum’s Strategic Foresight and Health teams, a number of leading voices will present their own visions for the future. Contributions are linked to the Scenarios for Sustainable Health Systems project, the Workplace Wellness Alliance and the Healthy Living Initiative. In the following post, Nicolaus Henk, Director of Global Healthcare Systems and Services Practice at McKinsey & Company, shares his perspective on the future of health.The year is 2040. Healthcare is transformed through...
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November 22, 2012
Why we need healthcare on the job
What will the future of health and healthcare look like? In a joint series of blog posts by the World Economic Forum’s Strategic Foresight and Health teams, a number of leading voices will present their own visions for the future. Contributions are linked to the Scenarios for Sustainable Health Systems project, the Workplace Wellness Alliance and the Healthy Living Initiative. In the following post, Sean Sullivan, Chief Executive Officer of the Institute for Health and Productivity Management and Shahnaz Radjy, Project Manager of the World Economic Forum’s Workplace Wellness Alliance will...
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November 21, 2012
Can we chart a new path toward sustainable healthcare?
What will the future of health and healthcare look like? In a series of blog posts by the World Economic Forum’s Strategic Foresight and Health teams, a number of leading voices will present their own visions for the future. Contributions are linked to the Scenarios for Sustainable Health Systems project, the Workplace Wellness Alliance and the Healthy Living Initiative. In the following post, Daljit Singh, President of Fortis Healthcare, shares his perspective on the future of health.In a post-recession world, we are still grappling with gloomy economic outlooks and increased scrutiny of...
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November 21, 2012
Why should cities be at the centre of the healthy living discussion?
What will the future of health and healthcare look like? In a joint series of blog posts by the World Economic Forum’s Strategic Foresight and Health team, a number of leading voices will present their own visions for the future. Contributions are linked to the Scenarios for Sustainable Health Systems project, the Workplace Wellness Alliance and the Healthy Living Initiative. In the following post, Johanna Ralston, Chief Executive Officer of the World Heart Federation, will share her perspective on the future of health.Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) – like cardiovascular disease, diabetes,...
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November 20, 2012
The case for disruptive innovation in healthcare
What will the future of health and healthcare look like? In a joint series of blog posts by the World Economic Forum’s Strategic Foresight and Health team, a number of leading voices will present their visions for the future. Contributions are linked to the Scenarios for Sustainable Health Systems project, the Workplace Wellness Alliance and the Healthy Living Initiative. In this post, Ali Parsa, Chief Executive and Co-Founder of Circle, shares his perspective on the future of health.The economic value equation is defined as quality divided by price. If quality in healthcare is described as...
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November 20, 2012
How to combat chronic disease in an ageing population
What will the future of health and healthcare look like? In a joint series of blog posts by the World Economic Forum’s Strategic Foresight and Health teams, a number of leading voices will present their own visions for the future. Contributions are linked to the Scenarios for Sustainable Health Systems project, the Workplace Wellness Alliance and the Healthy Living Initiative. In the following post, Joseph Jimenez, Chief Executive Officer of Novartis, will share his perspective on the future of health.We are experiencing a sea change in healthcare. The world’s population is ageing, with the...
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November 19, 2012
How can we enable a healthy future for India?
What will the future of health and healthcare look like? In a joint series of blog posts by the World Economic Forum’s Strategic Foresight and Health teams, a number of leading voices will present their own visions for the future. Contributions are linked to the Scenarios for Sustainable Health Systems project, the Workplace Wellness Alliance and the Healthy Living Initiative. In the following post, Sarita Nayar, Managing Director, Head of Consumer Industries of the World Economic Forum, will share her perspective on the future of health.The Indian health landscape has five major influencers...
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November 19, 2012
Euro, Dollar, Yuan Uncertainties - Scenarios on the Future of the International Monetary System
This report explores the critical uncertainties underlying the future international roles of the euro, the dollar and the yuan and how different responses to them by policy makers in each of these currency areas may create challenging scenarios for the international monetary system in 2030. Analysing such alternative developments is critical to both public and private sector decision-makers for building robust and resilient strategies – not only to anticipate and prepare for possible future shifts that may affect them, but also to help stakeholders focus on what steps must be taken today to...
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June 3, 2012
What is the future for Russia’s economy?
Russia’s economy is at a turning point. Following a decade of spectacular growth fueled by high energy prices, the country could either use its newfound riches to finance much-needed modernization and become a driver of innovation and growth, or muddle through by continuing to rely on its large yet maturing hydrocarbon base. Russia may either become the big R or the great absent in tomorrow’s BRICS.In this context of uncertainty, the Forum has launched a year-long process to develop Scenarios for the Russian Federation to the year 2030. Building on the Forum’s previous competitiveness...
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March 26, 2012
Scenarios for the Mediterranean Region
The Scenarios for the Mediterranean Region project began in August 2010 with the objective of exploring the long-term evolution of regional dynamics and the role of the private sector in the Mediterranean region, looking out to the year 2030. The project drew on the World Economic Forum’s deep expertise in multistakeholder scenario thinking, competitiveness analysis and our long-standing engagement with the wider Europe and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The Scenarios for the Mediterranean Region report explores three possible futures for the region, based on...
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October 21, 2011
Advancing Cloud Computing: What To Do Now?
Cloud computing is seen by many as the next wave of information technology for individuals, companies and governments. In the spring of 2010, the World Economic Forum published a report which evaluated the impact of cloud computing technologies and highlighted the large potential benefits of adoption, ranging from economic growth and potentially sizeable improvements in employment to enabling innovation and collaboration. While recognizing the many benefits of cloud, the report also highlighted very significant issues that could limit our ability to benefit from cloud computing.In...
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April 28, 2011
Exploring the Future of Cloud Computing: Riding the Next Wave of Technology-Driven Transformation
Cloud computing is seen by many as the next wave of information technology for individuals, companies and governments. The abundant supply of information technology capabilities at a low cost offers many enticing opportunities. In addition to reducing operational costs, cloud technologies have become the basis for radical business innovation and new business models, and for significant improvements in the effectiveness of anyone using information technology – which, these days, increasingly means most of the world.Like any new technology advancement, cloud computing also creates disruptive...
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January 10, 2011
Cloud Computing - Impact and Barriers
Presentation on Cloud Computing given at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2010
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January 10, 2011
Transforming Pensions and Healthcare in a Rapidly Ageing World: Opportunities and Collaborative Strategies
Based on the output of the Scenarios in 2030, this report highlights 11 options to better cater for the changing retirement and healthcare expectations, especially in the current time when resources are stretched. The report makes the case for an integrated response and looks at pensions and healthcare in tandem for future sustainability and suggests solutions from the opportunities rather than challenges and risks.
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December 9, 2010
United Arab Emirates and the World: Scenarios to 2025
United Arab Emirates and the World: Scenarios to 2025
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November 8, 2010
The Kingdom of Bahrain and the World: Scenarios to 2025
This study develops three scenarios for the future of Bahrain. They are intended to aid both the public and private sectors in developing strategy, facilitating open dialogue and offering insight into the key issues affecting the Kingdom of Bahrain over the years to 2025.
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November 4, 2010
Bahrain and the World: Scenarios to 2025
Nicholas Davis, scenario expert and Global Leadership Fellow at the World Economic Forum, on the new Bahrain and the World: Scenarios to 2025 report.
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November 4, 2010
The United Arab Emirates and the World: Scenarios to 2025
Human capital, innovation and leadership are central themes in this new scenario report. The scenarios offer insights into crucial forces affecting the UAE and its international partners, moving the focus from the rapidly evolving present to a consideration of three alternative visions of the future over a 20-year time horizon.
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November 4, 2010
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the World: Scenarios to 2025
These three scenarios examine potential shifts across economic, environmental, social, political and technological spheres and offer challenging visions designed to test strategy, open up dialogue, and offer insight into important factors affecting Saudi Arabia and the broader region between today and 2025.
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November 4, 2010
Redesigning Business Value: A Roadmap for Sustainable Consumption
This report offers immediate, practical ideas on how companies can partner across industry boundaries to begin to realize a long-term vision for sustainable consumption.
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November 4, 2010
The Future of the Global Financial System - Navigating the Challenges Ahead
This report explores the forces that shape the financial services landscape in the near term and provides stakeholders with tools to approach two of the most pressing challenges of the post-crisis world: managing and resolving governments’ newly acquired equity interests in financial institutions and restoring trust in financial institutions.
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November 4, 2010
Engineering & Construction Scenarios to 2020
World Economic Forum Engineering & Construction Scenarios to 2020.
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November 4, 2010
The Future of Pensions and Healthcare in a Rapidly Ageing World - Scenarios to 2030
Bernd Jan Sikken, Associate Director, Head of Emerging Markets Finance; Head of Project Management Centre for Global Industries, and Chiemi Hayashi, Associate Director on the World Economic Forum's Scenario Planning Team on the Future of Pensions and Healthcare in a Rapidly Ageing World - Scenarios to 2030, published on 23 September 2008.
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November 4, 2010
The Future of the Global Financial System 2009
The Future of the Global Financial System 2009 - Scenarios to 2020.
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November 4, 2010
Mining & Metals Scenarios to 2030
This video presents the scenario development process and scenario stories for the World Economic Forum's 'Mining and Metals to 2030' project.
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November 4, 2010
Technology and Innovation in Financial Services: Scenarios to 2020 - Preface and Executive Summary
Three scenarios explore how innovation will transform access to, and delivery of, financial services by 2020, in a globalized world. Will innovation be incremental or fundamental, will it be driven by traditional or new players, and what types of innovation will we see?
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November 4, 2010
The GCC Countries and the World: Scenarios to 2025
Three scenarios address the question of how GCC countries can use their wealth to expand in affluence, while overcoming the internal and external pressures that could shift them from the path of sustainable prosperity.Read the Executive Summary of this report.
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November 3, 2010
Digital Ecosystem Convergence between IT, Telecoms, Media and Entertainment: Scenarios to 2015
Broadband adoption, technological advances and decreased operating costs have pushed the IT, Telecommunications and Media and Entertainment industries into a period of great flux. As they converge, they are forming a space we could call the Digital Ecosystem. This emerging Digital Ecosystem is generating many risks and challenges for government policies, as well as presenting new opportunities for creating social and economic value. Just as any healthy ecosystem enables its stakeholders to interact to the benefit of all, a healthy Digital...
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November 3, 2010
Engineering & Construction: Scenarios to 2020
The scenarios presented here are four very different, challenging yet plausible images of that environment in 2020. They were constructed over a period of one year and emerged from discussions and workshops with leading industry stakeholders from Asia, the Middle East, Europe, Latin America and North America. They combine regional and global perspectives, and encompass both general building and large industrial segments such as oil, gas, chemicals, transportation and power.
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November 3, 2010
The Future of Pensions and Healthcare in a Rapidly Ageing World: Scenarios to 2030
This report identifies 3 global scenarios for 2030 and 2 sets of case studies from China and India. These scenarios are designed to challenge current thinking, create new insights, facilitate the debate between key decision-makers and provide momentum for action. New forms of collaboration between key stakeholders – individuals, financial institutions, healthcare providers, employers and governments – will be critical to finance the ongoing well-being of current and future generations in a sustainable manner.
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November 3, 2010
The Future of the Global Financial System: A Near-Term Outlook and Long-Term Scenarios
This initial report from the New Financial Architecture was mandated by the Forum’s investors and financial services communities in January 2008 to explore the driving forces that are shaping the global financial system in both the near-term and the long-term, and how these forces might affect governance and industry structure. This report is the outcome of phase one and presents a near-term analysis for key stakeholders and employs scenario thinking to describe four potential long-term futures for the global financial system.
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November 3, 2010
Mining & Metals: Scenarios to 2030
In collaboration with its constituents in the mining and metals sector, the World Economic Forum launched the Mining & Metals Scenarios to 2030 project in January 2009. This report is the outcome of a year-long process which brought together over 200 leaders from the private sector, government, academia and international and non-governmental organizations in a strategic dialogue structured by scenario planning methodology to consider the following central question: “How will the environment for the global mining and metals sector look in 2030?”
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November 3, 2010
