Weblog    |    Site map    |    Contact us    |    Search        
Home    |    Initiatives    |    Events    |    Media centre    |    About us    |    Knowledge navigator    |    Members
  From the report
Home
Preface
Annual Meeting Outcomes
Industry: Preventing a Broad Social Backlash
G20: Getting the World Economy Back on Track Global Challenges
Threatening Economic Recovery
Goverments: Averting a Deeper Confidence Crisis in Global Governance
Ideas and New Concepts to Drive Future Growth
IdeasLab
Acknowledgements
  World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2009
    Davos-Klosters, Switzerland 28 January - 1 February 2009
Annual Meeting 2009 Home   

What Ideas and New Concepts Will Drive Future Growth? Printer friendly version  Send to a friend
Luisa Dias Diogo
"The private sector contributes because they see results, not because of charity."

Luisa Dias Diogo,
Prime Minister of Mozambique

Albert Einstein famously cautioned against allowing our technology to outpace our humanity. Today, despite the global financial downturn, scientific advances continue to propagate at breathtaking speed. With such developments comes hope.

"A great opportunity exists to generate a new wave of economic growth based on technologies, products and services," underscored Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum, in his opening remarks to the Annual Meeting 2009. However, such trends also engender great responsibilities. Schwab emphasized that any new science must meet "societal needs in eco-efficiency, in healthcare, in transportation, in people empowerment and many more." In that spirit, leading educational institutions such as MIT, Oxford, Yale and INSEAD gave presentations in IdeasLab sessions on emerging technologies, scientific discoveries and new strategies for industry throughout the Annual Meeting.

Scientific research and innovations can lead growth by forging new paths in three principal areas. First, in the field of healthcare, promising advancements are being made in stem cell research, genomic sequencing, biomechatronics, regenerative science and applications of nanotechnology, such as neuroprosthetics and RNA targeting. Second, new technologies to augment energy generation and efficiency are enabling more responsible stewardship of the environment. Finally, innovations in information technology are transforming business organizations, and even altering the most elemental human interactions.

Recent advances are making it easier to detect early-stage diseases, increasing the likelihood of successful treatment. Mobile technology is enabling the rapid dissemination of a patient's medical history, leading to rapid treatments by first responders. A biotech firm has introduced an ingestible microchip that reads, monitors and relays a body's chemical functions through electronic signals.

At an even finer level, nanoparticles, spread throughout the circulatory system, can diagnose cancer cells and deliver drugs to focus treatments. Physicians will soon be able to tell with complete certainty whether a given ailment is caused by a virus or a bacteria.

In many ways, the ultimate diagnostic tool is genome sequencing. After the success in April 2003 of the US$ 3 billion Human Genome Project, the cost of mapping an individual's genome fell to US$ 1 million, and now stands at around US$ 100,000. When the cost falls below US$ 1,000, which some are predicting will happen within the next four years, masses of people will have access to genetic mapping and thus enjoy the benefits of predictive, personalized medicine.

Ban Ki-moon
"Investment in sustainable technologies will turn today's crisis into tomorrow's sustainable growth."

Ban Ki-moon,
Secretary-General, United Nations, New York
Other technologies are enhancing the likelihood of effective treatments. "At the beginning of the 21st century, we are poised on the cusp of a revolution in regenerative medicine," announced Paul Fairchild, Director, Oxford Stem Cell Institute, 21st Century School, Oxford University, United Kingdom. Though the science is still young, stem cell research may lead to the creation of organs, the growth of blood vessels on polymer scaffolds and other regenerative therapies. Biomechatronics, an applied interdisciplinary science, will soon incorporate mechanical elements to treat biological disorders. For example, neural implants will help Parkinson's patients. Neuroprosthetics may lead to the restoration of sight and hearing in some patients.

In the West, where health systems are becoming 6% more costly each year, medical information technologies can be transformative: "Opportunities exist if we can connect patients to caregivers and vice versa," said George C. Halvorson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Kaiser Permanente, USA.

However, critically, new technologies must also improve healthcare systems in the developing world. Information technology is already allowing the spread of medical know-how to underserved parts of the globe. However, intellectual property restrictions must be eased to enable the treatment of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis in the developing world. Already, a green technology enterprise controls pest insects through radiation-induced sterilization, inhibiting the spread of dengue fever and by producing harmless versions of the malaria parasite, pointing a way towards an effective vaccine.

Fundamentally, new science must uplift all of humanity. Article 27 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights states that everyone has the right "to share in scientific advancement and its benefits." In an increasingly interdependent world, we must lessen the science gap between rich and poor to foster growth for all. Medical science is already tapping technologies that will revolutionize the way we detect and cure illnesses, and will allow us to reform national healthcare systems.

"It is not possible to achieve good results fighting malaria with the government alone," said Prime Minister Luisa Dias Diogo of Mozambique. "So we include business and civil society. The private sector contributes because they see results, not because of charity." At the Annual Meeting, the Young Global Leaders' initiative to "Deworm the World" announced the roll-out of treatment programmes to India, Kenya and Guyana, bringing the total coverage of the initiative in 2009 to 28 million schoolchildren in 35 countries.

Concerted effort is needed to develop and disseminate new agricultural technologies throughout the developing world to combat famine and chronic food insecurity. "The world has never been more advanced in terms of creating wealth, and yet more and more are becoming hungry," observed Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva of Thailand. William H. Gates III, Co-Chair, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, USA, argued that the developed world must increase and focus its investment in technology research in the agricultural sector, for example in the development of drought-resistant seeds, because doing so now yields multiple benefits down the road.

Closely linked with health crises such as malaria, climate change threatens our common well-being. However, new technologies hold out the promise of a sustainable future.

Of the 6 billion people on the planet, slightly less than half are significant energy users. However, in the coming three decades, another 3 billion people are expected to come online. Such a trend demands a massive increase in alternative energy generation and fuel efficient technologies. The challenge is also an opportunity. "Investment in sustainable technologies will turn today's crisis into tomorrow's sustainable growth," said UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

Al Gore
"We can create good sustainable jobs by moving more quickly towards renewable energy sources."

Al Gore,
Vice-President of the United States of America (1993-2001); Nobel Laureate 2007

While investment in clean energy has increased from US$ 35 billion to US$ 150 billion over the last four years, it needs to increase to US$ 500 billion over the next decade to check climate change. "Give us the R&D money that goes to fossil fuel and we'll be fine," said Ditlev Engel, President and Chief Executive Officer, Vestas Wind Systems, Denmark. Through nanotechnology, scientists are uncovering new ways to harness solar power, through more efficient batteries, and to purify water. With significant spending increases in the technology, nuclear fusion could become a viable power source by 2030. Biofuels are currently available, but are an imperfect alternative to fossil fuels, largely thanks to the environmental cost of their production.

With roughly half of the petroleum used today going into transportation, the quest for hybrid and electric vehicles has particular urgency. By 2011, Renault and Nissan will release two electric cars that can travel 150 kilometres on a charge, and a third by 2012. Israel, Denmark and Australia are encouraging electric car use through such policies as nationwide battery service stations; other nations will make electric vehicles competitive by taxing carbon emissions.

More generally, national policy frameworks must be overhauled to halve carbon emissions from the current level of 28 gigatonnes per year to 14 gigatonnes. "The policies we need to overcome financial crises are the same to combat climate change," said Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen of Denmark. "We need green sustainable growth. Green efficiency is sound economics."

Al Gore, Vice-President of the United States (1993-2001), Nobel Laureate 2007, called for a global agreement on climate change this year: "What we most need out of Copenhagen is a clear, shared vision of where the world is going in the future." He added: "We can create good sustainable jobs by moving more quickly towards renewable energy sources," and remarked that the technologies are now competitive. The new US leadership, he reported, "is prepared to engage the world on the climate crisis."

Most policies should aim towards mitigation of emissions - for example through taxes and carbon trading - increased efficiency and adaptation of alternative technologies. Planetary engineering - from carbon capture storage to spreading carboniferous materials in topsoil - remains as a last resort.

Critically, while government can be a facilitator, the private sector must drive the reforms. After a recent meeting with US President Obama, Michael R. Splinter, President and Chief Executive Office, Applied Materials, USA, reported: "He doesn't want to choose the best technology, but wants to have the market choose the technology."

Chairs of the Forum's various Industry Governors reported in Global Industry Outlook sessions that business is "hardwiring" climate change into their future plans. Industry executives also agreed to move forward with half a dozen specific initiatives to accelerate the integration of sustainable practices into business.

Ben J. Verwaayen
"Young people live integrated lives, demand the opportunity to be always connected and create their own space. It will drive a different set of requirements and opens up vast new economic activities."

Ben J. Verwaayen,
Chief Executive Officer, Alcatel-Lucent, France
As it has over the past two decades, the information and communications technology industry will fuel growth. The industry will lessen the distances between vendor and consumer, employer and employee, and developing and industrialized nations.

While the mood is appropriately sombre in the financial sector, "the Information Technology and Telecommunications (ITTC) sector has always been part of catalysing change and stimulating growth," said Solomon D. Trujillo, Chief Executive Officer, Telstra Corporation, Australia, and Co-Chair of the Governors Meeting for IT and Telecommunications 2009. "We talked [in the World Economic Forum Governors Meeting] about finding ways to stimulate investment, leverage innovation and how we as an industry have to collaborate even harder."

Among the biggest trends in the industry, social networking software is changing corporate cultures around the globe. Vertical organizations are fast disappearing, replaced with systems wherein senior executives communicate with entry-level employees in real time over blogs, chatrooms and social networking sites like Facebook.

IT is also changing the way corporations learn from one another, and the Forum, by upgrading the capabilities of its WELCOM platform, designed in partnership with Adobe Systems, BT Innovate and Microsoft, is encouraging that progress. WELCOM is a collaborative Web-based platform developed to allow world leaders to consult on global issues via video technology to share expertise and knowledge in real time and to create online communities focusing on specific global challenges.

Businesses are not just sharing information, they are sharing basic IT management over broadband, mobile connections and massive server farms in what is known as "cloud computing". The practice increases security risks, but it radically reduces the cost for maintaining communications infrastructure and applications, and allows input from a nearly limitless pool of expertise.

New technology's reorganization of the media industry will accelerate. User-delivered content will increase as camera phones improve; physical newspapers may soon disappear entirely, though it is unclear whether a subscription or advertising-based model will drive their digital replacements. GPS-enabled technology will change the way companies track consumers, and the way consumers receive personalized information.


2009 World Economic Brainstorming

Perhaps the most revolutionary trend in the IT sphere is taking place in the developing world. By the end of last year, there were 4 billion mobile phone subscriptions worldwide - more than half of whom are in Asia. The cellphone has become the computer for the poor, and mobile telephony is fast emerging as a global central nervous system. Chinese farmers get crop information; Kenyan day labourers find out about job postings. Digital convergence is democratizing access to information. Ben J. Verwaayen, Chief Executive Officer, Alcatel-Lucent, France, said: "Mobile telephony is absolutely the wrong term. It's more like personal liberation."

With coordinated, conscientious leadership, new technologies will not only continue to fuel growth. If harnessed, such advancements will also enable a digital revolution that can uplift parts of the world hitherto not reached by the agricultural and industrial revolutions. Achieving this kind of inclusive growth requires new mindsets. Again, Einstein foresaw the challenge: "We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."