This report was prepared by the Global Risk Network of the
World Economic Forum in conjunction with its partners.
Global Risk Network Irene Casanova, Associate Director, Global Risk Network
Viktoria Ivarsson, Project Manager, Global Risks Report
Stéphane Oertel, Associate Director, Global Risk Network
Fiona Paua, Senior Director, Head of Global Agenda Council
and Strategic Insight Teams
Pearl Samandari, Team Coordinator, Strategic Insight Teams
Sheana Tambourgi, Director, Head of the Global Risk
Network; Editor, Global Risks 2009
Global Risks Report Partners Citigroup, USA John Ingraham, Managing Director, Head of Risk Aggregation, Citigroup
Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC) Sara Dixter, Manager, Oliver Wyman (MMC), United Kingdom John Drzik, President and Chief Executive Officer, Oliver Wyman Group, MMC, USA David Frediani, Senior Vice-President, International and Client Development, MMC, USA John J. Merkovsky, Managing Director, Marsh Risk Consulting, MMC, USA Roland Rechtsteiner, Partner, Oliver Wyman (MMC), Switzerland Alex Wittenberg, Partner, Oliver Wyman (MMC), USA
Swiss Re Anwarul Hasan, Vice-President, Risk Management, Swiss Re, Switzerland Kurt Karl, Senior Vice-President, Head of Economic Research & Consulting, Swiss Re American Holding Corp., USA Raj Singh, Chief Risk Officer, Member of the Executive Board, Swiss Re, Switzerland Teri Taylor, Director, Head of Emerging Risk Management, Swiss Re, Switzerland Lisa Wyssbrod, Director, Senior Issue and Partnership Manager, Swiss Re, Switzerland
The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, USA Witold J. Henisz, Associate Professor of Management Howard Kunreuther, Cecilia Yen Koo Professor; Co-Director, Risk Management and Decision Processes Center Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Managing Director, Center for Risk Management and Decision Processes, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Zurich Financial Services, Switzerland Roland Cochard, Research Assistant, Risk Assessment Room Daniel M. Hofmann, Group Chief Economist Kerry Karageorgis, Development Director, Risk Assessment Room Axel P. Lehmann, Chief Risk Officer, Member of the Group Executive Committee Samuel Schenker, Research Assistant, Risk Assessment Room
Expert Workshops Over the past year, the Global Risk Network has engaged with a wider group of experts in workshops and meetings held in New York, London, Dalian, Delhi and Zurich. These workshops, along with the risk assessment process and meetings in Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, China, Turkey and India, have provided broad expertise and invaluable insight for this report. They are an integral part of the Global Risk Network's mandate to foster and support multistakeholder dialogues to improve understanding of global risks and to increase the possibilities for risk mitigation.
We would like to thank all of those who contributed for their time and above all for their insights: Ahmet Akarli, Executive Director, Goldman Sachs International, United Kingdom Efkan Ala, Undersecretary of the Prime Ministry of Turkey Towfiq M. Al-Bastaki, Assistant General Manager, Risk Management & Compliance Division, Shamil Bank of Bahrain, Bahrain Laura Alfaro, Associate Professor, Harvard Business School, USA Berrak Alkan, Editor, Chairman's Office, Dogus Group, Turkey Ross Anderson, Professor of Security Engineering, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom Yilmaz Argüden, Chairman, ARGE Consulting, Turkey Attila Askar, President, Koç University, Turkey Curtis Baron, Director, Business Continuity, Europe, Information Technology, Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Ltd, United Kingdom Guy Battle, Originator and Founder, Dcarbon8, United Kingdom Esther Baur, Director, Head Issue Management, Swiss Re, Switzerland Erik Berglöf, Chief Economist, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), London Kip Berkley-Hearing, Group Risk Manager, BT Plc, United Kingdom Simon Biggs, Director, Institute of Gerontology, King's College London, United Kingdom Jaime de Bourbon Parme, Head, Crisis Response Operations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Netherlands Philippe Brahin, Director, Head of Group Regulatory Affairs, Swiss Re, Switzerland Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group, USA Cath Bremner, Head of Corporate Development, The Carbon Trust, United Kingdom David Bresch, Director, Head of Sustainability and Emerging Risk Management, Swiss Re, Switzerland Shlomo Brom, Director and Senior Research Fellow, Program on Israel-Palestinian Relations, The Institute for National Security Studies, Israel Christopher Bunting, General Secretary, International Risk Governance Council (IRGC), Switzerland Ali Carkoglu, Associate Professor, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Sabanci University, Turkey John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), United Kingdom Sean M. Cleary, Chairman, Strategic Concepts (Pty) Ltd, South Africa Benjamin H. Cohen, Member, Secretariat, Financial Stability Forum, Switzerland Roger Courtney, Professorial Fellow in Construction Innovation, University of Manchester, United Kingdom Aron Cramer, President and Chief Executive Officer, Business for Social Responsibility (BSR), USA James Darcy, Director of Programmes, Humanitarian Policy Group, Overseas Development Institute, United Kingdom William Dick, Consultant, Commodity Risk Management Group, Agriculture and Rural Development, World Bank, USA Samuel A. DiPiazza Jr, Chief Executive Officer, PricewaterhouseCoopers International, PricewaterhouseCoopers, USA Soumitra Dutta, Dean, External Relations, and Roland Berger Chaired Professor in Business and Technology, INSEAD, France Esther Dyson, Chairman, EDventure Holdings Inc., USA Can Erkey, Professor, Koç University, Turkey Esra Ersen, Office of the Chairman, Economic Research Manager, Dogus Group, Turkey Ahmet O. Evin, Professor, Sabanci University, Turkey Marie-Valentine Florin, Deputy Secretary-General, International Risk Governance Council (IRGC), Switzerland Stephen E. Flynn, Senior Fellow, National Security Studies Program, and Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Chair in National Security Council on Foreign Relations, USA Astrid Frey, Vice-President, Economist, Swiss Re, Switzerland Bulent Goktuna, Chairman, Mineks International, Turkey Antonio Guterres, UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva Beat Habegger, Senior Researcher, Comprehensive Risk Analysis and Management Network, Switzerland Katherine Hagen, Chief Executive Officer, Geneva Social Observatory, Switzerland Roman Hohl, Director, Head Agro Americas, Asia, Corporates, Swiss Re, Switzerland Thomas Holzheu, Deputy Head of Economic Research and Consulting, Swiss Reinsurance Financial Services Corporation, USA Richard J. Howes, Principal Executive Officer, Balance Sheet, Asset Management, Challenger Financial Services Group, Australia Bridget M. Hutter, Director, Centre for Analysis of Risk and Regulation, London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom Rolph Kurt Jenny, Special Adviser to the Chair-in-Office, Global Forum on Migration and Development (GFMD), Switzerland Catherine Jourdan, Director, Governance, Risk & Compliance, PricewaterhouseCoopers, USA Ethan B. Kapstein, Chair in Political Economy, INSEAD, France Frederick Kempe, President and Chief Executive Officer, The Atlantic Council of The United States, USA Gürtay Kipcak, Director, Government Affairs, The Coca-Cola Company, Turkey Margery Kraus, President and Chief Executive Officer, APCO Worldwide Inc., USA Anil Kumar, President, Ransat Group, United Kingdom Kiyoshi Kurokawa, Science Adviser to the Prime Minister of Japan Sophie Lambin, Director, Global Thought Leadership, PricewaterhouseCoopers, United Kingdom Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer, Leader of the Risk, Modeling and Society Project, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Brazil Penny Low, Member of Parliament, Singapore Allen Ma, President, BT Asia Pacific, BT Ltd, Hong Kong SAR Brunson McKinley, Director-General, International Organization for Migration (IOM), Geneva Robert Muir-Wood, Chief Research Officer, Risk Management Solutions, United Kingdom Richard H. Murray, Managing Director and Chief Claims Strategist, Swiss Reinsurance America Corporation, USA Charles Nelson, Global Head of Strategy and Markets' Development, Mercer Health and Benefits Business, Mercer (MMC), United Kingdom Takeshi Niinami, President and Chief Executive Officer, Lawson Inc., Japan Lucy Nottingham, Corporate Risk Consulting, Oliver Wyman (MMC), USA Marcus Oxley, Chairman, Global Network of Civil Society Organizations for Disaster Reduction, Tearfund, United Kingdom Ayca Paksoy, External Affairs Manager, Office of the Chairman, Dogus Group, Turkey Kirsten Parker, Director of Analysis, Exclusive Analysis, United Kingdom Nicola Patmore, Senior Research Analyst, Climate Change Practice, Risk Management Solutions, United Kingdom Aydan Piker, External Affairs Specialist, Office of the Chairman, Dogus Holding, Turkey Hans Björn Püttgen, Professor and Director, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland Danny Quah, Professor of Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom Geoff Riddell, Member, Group Executive Committee and Chief Executive Officer, Global Corporate Business, Zurich Financial Services, Switzerland Vanessa Rossi, Senior Research Fellow, International Economics Programme, Chatham House, United Kingdom Melinda Roth, Head of the Integrated Risk Management Team, World Bank, USA Tamer Saka, Chief Risk Officer, Haci Ömer Sabanci Holding AS, Turkey Armen Sarkissian, President and Founder, Eurasia House International, United Kingdom Anthony Scaramucci, Managing Partner, Skybridge Capital, USA Cuneyt Sezgin, Board Member, Garanti Bank, Turkey Daniel Shapiro, Director, Harvard International Negotiation Initiative, Harvard Law School, USA Dennis Snower, President, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Germany Andreas Spiegel, Vice-President, Senior Climate Change Advisor, Swiss Re, Switzerland Rory Stear, Executive Chairman, Freeplay Energy Plc, United Kingdom Rolf Tanner, Director, Head of Political and Sustainability Risk Management, Swiss Re, Switzerland Alper Ugural, Chief Risk Officer, Dogus Group, Turkey Sinan Ülgen, Chairman, Centre for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), Turkey Gündüz Ulusoy, Faculty Member, Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Sabanci University, Turkey Oya Unlü Kizil, Director, Corporate Communications, Koç Holding AS, Turkey Levent Veziroglu, Executive Vice-President (EVP), Office of the Chairman, Dogus Group, Turkey Suna S. Vidinli, Chief Communications Officer, Calik Holding AS, Turkey Diego Visconti, International Chairman, Accenture, Italy Bob Ward, Director, Public Policy, Risk Management Solutions, United Kingdom Mark Weaser, Chief Investment Officer, Modern Terminals Ltd, Hong Kong SAR Martin Weymann, Vice-President, Senior Risk Manager, Swiss Re, Switzerland Carolyn Williams, Development Manager, The Institute of Risk Management, United Kingdom Patricia Wouters, Director, UNESCO Centre for Water Law, Policy and Science, University of Dundee, United Kingdom Selcuk Yorgancioglu, Executive Director, Abraaj Capital, United Arab Emirates Linda Yueh, Fellow in Economics, University of Oxford, United Kingdom Simon Zadek, Chief Executive, AccountAbility, United Kingdom
Internal reviewers A particular note of thanks to Miguel Perez, Manager Issue Monitoring, Strategic Insight Team, for his input and guidance on the Global Risks Perception Survey
In addition, the project team expresses its gratitude to the following colleagues from the World Economic Forum for their excellent advice and support throughout the project: Jennifer Blanke, Director, Senior Economist, Head of the Global Competitiveness Network Matthias Catón, Knowledge Manager, Global Agenda Council; Global Leadership Fellow Brindusa Fidanza, Senior Project Manager, Environmental Initiatives; Global Leadership Fellow Christoph Frei, Senior Director, Head of Energy Industries Lena Hagelstein, Programme Manager; Global Leadership Fellow Randall Krantz, Associate Director, Environmental Initiatives Johanna Lanitis, Project Associate, Energy Team Carina Larsfälten, Associate Director, Governments and Stakeholders Sylvia Lee, Associate Director, Environmental Initiatives; Global Leadership Fellow Oksana Myshlovska, Knowledge Manager, Global Agenda Council; Global Leadership Fellow Martin Nägele, Knowledge Manager, Global Agenda Council; Global Leadership Fellow Gareth Shepherd, Associate Director, Investors Community; Global Leadership Fellow Fabienne Stassen Fleming, Head of Knowledge Capture, Global Agenda Councils Dominic Waughray, Senior Director, Head of Environmental Initiatives
|