This report was prepared by the Global Risk Network of the World Economic Forum in conjunction with its partners.
Global Risk Network, World Economic Forum Irene Casanova, Associate Director, Global Risk Network Viktoria Ivarsson, Senior Project Manager, Global Risks Report Stéphane Oertel, Associate Director, Global Risk Network Carissa Sahli, Team Coordinator, Strategic Insight Teams Sheana Tambourgi, Director, Head of the Global Risk Network; Editor, Global Risks 2010
Global Risks Report Partners
Citi John Ingraham, Managing Director, Risk Architecture, and Head, Risk Aggregation, Citi, USA
Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC) Alina Lantsberg, Oliver Wyman (MMC), USA
Lucy Nottingham, Corporate Risk Consulting, Oliver Wyman (MMC), USA
Roland Rechtsteiner, Partner, Oliver Wyman, Switzerland
Christine Salerno, Director, Corporate Social Responsibility, Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC), USA Alex Wittenberg, Partner, Oliver Wyman (MMC), USA
Swiss Re Esther Baur, Director, Head Issue Management & Messages, Swiss Re, Switzerland David Bresch, Director, Head Sustainability & Emerging Risk Management, Swiss Re, Switzerland
Anwarul Hasan, Vice(President, Senior Risk Manager, Swiss Re, Switzerland Kurt Karl, Senior Vice(President, Head of Economic Research & Consulting, Swiss Re America Holding
Corp., USA Reto Schneider, Director, Head of Emerging Risk Management, Swiss Re, Switzerland
Raj Singh, Chief Risk Officer, Member of the Executive Board, Swiss Re, Switzerland
Lisa Wyssbrod, Director, Senior Issue and Partnership Manager, Swiss Re, Switzerland
The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, USA Howard Kunreuther, Cecilia Yen Koo Professor of Decision Sciences and Public Policy, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, USA Erwann Michel(Kerjan, Managing Director, Center for Risk Management and Decision Processes, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, USA Zurich Financial Services, Switzerland Daniel M. Hofmann, Group Chief Economist, Zurich Financial Services, Switzerland Kerry Karageorgis, Development Director Global Risk Assessment, Zurich Financial Services, Switzerland Axel P. Lehmann, Chief Risk Officer, Member of the Group Executive Committee, Zurich Financial Services, Switzerland Samuel Schenker, Research Assistant Global Risk Assessment, Zurich Financial Services, Switzerland Michael Szoenyi, Leader Natural Hazards Working Group, Zurich Financial Services, Switzerland Ashutosh Riswadkar, Director Liability Line of Business, Zurich Financial Services, Switzerland
Expert input Over the past year, the Global Risk Network has engaged with an extended group of experts in workshops and meetings held in Copenhagen, Dalian, London, New Delhi, New York, Tokyo, Washington DC and Zurich. Thanks to the wide range of expertise and invaluable insights provided through these workshops, the Global Risk Network continues to support multistakeholder dialogue to improve the understanding of global risks.
We would like to thank all of those who contributed for their time and, above all, their insights:
Giles Archibald, Client Service Group Leader, Mercer (MMC), United Kingdo
m Tom Armitage, Vice (President, Senior Communications Consultant, Swiss Re, Switzerland Shumeet Banerji, Chief Executive Officer, Booz & Company, United Kingdom Kai Bender, Partner, Oliver Wyman Communications Media and Technology, USA Ann Bernstein, Executive Director, Centre for Development and Enterprise (CDE), South Africa Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group, USA Alessio Brown, Head of Reforming the Welfare Society Research Area, Executive Director Global Economic Symposium (GES), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Germany Chris Bunting, Secretary(General, International Risk Governance Council (IRGC), Switzerland Matthew Burrows, Director of Analysis and Production Staff, National Intelligence Council (NIC), USA Rakesh Chaudhry, Professor of Strategic Management, IILM Institute for Higher Education, India Graciela Chichilnisky, Professor of Economics, Columbia University, USA Sean Cleary, Chairman, Strategic Concepts, South Africa Uri Dadush, Senior Associate and Director, International Economics Programme, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, USA Michael Denton, Partner, Oliver Wyman Corporate Risk Practice, USA Patrick Dixon, Director and Chief Executive Officer, Global Change, United Kingdom Daniel Drezner, Professor of International Politics, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, USA John Drzik, CEO, Oliver Wyman (MMC), USA Rajeev Dubey, Deputy Editor, Businessworld, India Thomas Easton, Asia Business Editor, The Economist, Hong Kong SAR Thomas Epprecht, Director, Risk Expert, Swiss Re, Switzerland
Willy Fill, Director, Business Continuity Manager, Swiss Re, Switzerland Raymond Fisman, Professor of Economics and Finance, Columbia Business School, USA Helmut Fluhrer, Chief Executive Officer, Meteo Systems AG, Switzerland Robert Fox, Partner, Oliver Wyman (MMC), USA Georges Galey, Vice-President, Senior Underwriter Property, Swiss Re, Switzerland Susan Glasser, Executive Editor, Foreign Policy Magazine, USA Boris Galonske, Partner, Oliver Wyman (MMC), USA Alan W. Hall, Global Policy Coordinator, Global Water Partnership (GWP), Sweden Gideon Henderson, Professor, 21st Century School, University of Oxford, United Kingdom Satoru Hiraga, Representative Director, Marsh Broker Japan, Inc., Japan Roman Hohl, Director, Head Agriculture Australasia and Corporates, Swiss Re, Switzerland Blake Hounshell, Managing Editor, Foreign Policy Magazine, USA Steve Howard, Chief Executive Officer, The Climate Group, United Kingdom José Miguel Insulza, Secretary-General, Organization of American States (OAS), USA Yoko Ishikura, Professor, Graduate School of International Corporate Strategy, Hitotsubashi University, Japan Hastings (Hasty) Johnson, Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer, Hines, USA Parag Khanna, Director, Global Governance Initiative and Senior Research Fellow, American Strategy Program, New American Foundation, USA Atul Khosla, Partner, Oliver Wyman, India Bram A. de Klerk, Group General Manager, Sasol Limited, South Africa Robert Kopech, Partner, Oliver Wyman (MMC), USA and Adjunct Assistant Professor of International and Public Affairs, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, USA Kiyoshi Kurokawa, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), Japan Charles D. Lake, Chairman and Representative, Aflac, Japan Sophie Lambin, Director, Global Thought Leadership, PricewaterhouseCoopers, United Kingdom Bernice Lee, Research Director, Energy, Environment and Resource Governance, The Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, United Kingdom Ann Li, Vice President, New York City Economic Development Corporation, USA Cheng Li, Director of Research and Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution, USA C. V. Madhukar, Director, PRS Legislative Research, India Don Mango, Managing Director, Guy Carpenter (MMC), USA Trevor Mapplebeck, Partner, Oliver Wyman (MMC), USA John Merkovsky, Global Leader Risk Consulting Practice (Marsh), USA Masahiko Metoki, General Manager for International Strategy and Corporate Planning, Japan Post Service Co. Ltd, Japan Luis Moreno, President, Inter(American Development Bank, USA David Nadler, Vice Chairman, Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC), USA Moíses Naím, Editor(in(Chief, Foreign Policy Magazine, USA Jeanne Ng, Director, Group Environmental Affairs, CLP Holdings, Hong Kong SAR Herbert Oberhänsli, Head, Economic and International Relations, Nestlé, Switzerland Sandeep Parekh, Visiting Associate Faculty, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India Richard T. Pascale, Associate Fellow, Saïd Business School, University of Oxford, United Kingdom Minxin Pei, Tom and Margot Pritzker ‘72 Professor of Government and Director, Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies, Claremont McKenna College, USA Aaron Pereira, Co(Founder, CanadaHelps and Vartana, United Kingdom Jim Pierce, Managing Director, Marsh (MMC), USA Morten Poulsen(Hansen, Global Risk Project Manager, Group Finance & Operations, Risk Management, Vestas Wind Systems A/S, Denmark Kenneth Prewitt, Carnegie Professor of Public Affairs, School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA), Columbia University, USA Vanessa Rossi, Senior Research Fellow, International Economics Programme, Chatham House, United Kingdom Michael J. Roux, Chairman, Roux International, Australia Karl Sauvant, Special Adviser, UN Millennium Project; Executive Director, Columbia Program on International Investment, Columbia University, USA Orville H. Schell, Director, Center of US(China Relations, Asia Society, USA Stephen H. Schneider, Melvin & Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies, Woods University, USA Andreas Schraft, Managing Director, Head Catastrophe Perils & Treaty Centre, Swiss Re, Switzerland David Skilling, Associate Principal, McKinsey & Company, Singapore Kapil Sibal, Minister of Human Resource Development of India Andrew Sorkin, Chief Reporter and Editor, Mergers and Acquisitions, The New York Times, USA Andreas Spiegel, Vice(President, Senior Climate Change Advisor, Swiss Re, Switzerland Rolf Tanner, Director, Head Political & Sustainability Risk Management, Swiss Re, Switzerland Steven M. Tebbe, Vice(President, Environmental Affairs, NetJets Europe, Portugal Gillian Tett, Assistant Editor, Markets, The Financial Times, United Kingdom David Tuckett, Professor, Psychoanalysis Unit, Research Department of Clinical , Educational and Health Psychology, University College London, United Kingdom Shailendra Vyakarnam, Director, Centre for Entrepreneurial Learning, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom Peter Walsh, Partner, Oliver Wyman (MMC), USA Michael Weissel, Partner, Oliver Wyman (MMC), USA Geoffrey West, President and Distinguished Professor, Santa Fe Institute, USA Martin Weymann, Vice(President, Senior Risk Manager, Swiss Re, Switzerland Urs Widmer, Vice(President, Senior Medical Officer, Swiss Re, Switzerland Linda Yueh, Fellow in Economics, University of Oxford, United Kingdom Simon Zadek, Chief Executive, AccountAbility, United Kingdom Ernesto Zedillo Ponce de Leon, Director, Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, Yale University, USA Kaspar Zellweger, Vice(President, Senior Risk Manager, Swiss Re, Switzerland
Internal Reviewers Jennifer Blanke, Director, Head of the Global Competitiveness Network, World Economic Forum Robert Greenhill, Chief Business Officer, World Economic Forum Adrian Monck, Managing Director, Communications and Media Relations, World Economic Forum Richard Samans, Managing Director, World Economic Forum André Schneider, Managing Director and Chief Operating Officer, World Economic Forum Kristel Van der Elst, Director, Head of Scenario Planning, World Economic Forum Dominic Waughrey, Senior Director, Head of Environmental Initiatives, World Economic Forum
Online visualization development for the Risk Interconnections Map (RIM)
Moritz Stefaner, Research Assistant on the MACE Project, Potsdam University of Applied Sciences; Freelance Information Visualizer
We would like to recognize Miguel Perez, Nomination Manager, Global Leadership Fellow, World Economic Forum, for his valuable collaboration on the Global Risks Perception Survey and visualization project.
Members of the Global Agenda Councils on Chronic Disease & Conditions
We would particularly like to thank the following people for their valuable assistance and input on the section on chronic diseases in this report:
Sania Nishtar, Founding President, Heartfile, Pakistan Ala Alwan, Assistant Director-General, Noncommunicable Diseases and Mental Health, World Health Organization (WHO), Switzerland Eva Jané-Llopis, Head, Chronic diseases and Wellness, World Economic Forum, Switzerland Peter Anderson, Regional Editor, Europe, Drug and Alcohol Review, Netherlands Gustavo Averbuj, Chief Executive Officer, Ketchum, Argentina Cary Cooper, Professor of Organisational Psychology and Health, Lancaster University Management School (LUMS), United Kingdom Oliver Harrison, Director, Public Health and Health Policy, Government of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates Helen Herrman, Secretary for Publications, World Psychiatric Association, Australia Martin RJ Knapp, Director, Personal Social Services Research Unit, London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom Paul Litchfield, Chief Medical Officer and Head, Health and Safety, BT, United Kingdom Rachel Nugent, Deputy Director, Global Health, Center for Global Development, USA Michael P. O'Donnell, Editor-in Chief American Journal of Health Promotion, USA Vikram Patel, Professor of International Mental Health, Sangath, India Scott Ratzan, Vice-President, Global Health, Government Affairs and Policy, Johnson & Johnson, USA K. Srinath Reddy, President, Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI), India
Expert Consultation at the ECOSOC High-Level Segment of the 2009 Annual Ministerial Review, Geneva, July 2009 Fiona Adshead, Director Chronic Diseases Programmes, World Health Organization (WHO), Switzerland Douglas Bettcher, Director, Tobacco Free Initiative, World Health Organization (WHO), Switzerland Francesco Branca, Director Nutrition for Health and Development, World Health Organization (WHO), Switzerland James Hospedales, Coordinator Chronic diseases, Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Washington DC, USA Janet Voute, Partnership Advisor, World Health Organization (WHO), Switzerland
Global Agenda Council on Chronic Diseases & Malnutrition, 2008-2009 John Clymer, President, Partnership For Prevention, USA Sharon Fonn, Head, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa Stig K. Pramming, Managing Director, Oxford Health Alliance, United Kingdom Pekka Puska, Director-General, National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Finland Ricardo Uauy, President, International Union of Nutritional Sciences, Chile Derek Yach, Vice-President, Global Health Policy, PepsiCo, USA
Biodiversity and Global Risks
We would like to express particular thanks to the following for their valuable input and support:
Joshua Bishop, Chief Economist, International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Switzerland (Member GAC on Ecosystems & Biodiversity Loss) Georgina Langdale, Communications, TEEB Central Office, Germany Jason Shellaby, Research Analyst, Global Agenda Councils Team, World Economic Forum Chair: Pavan Sukhdev, Study Leader, TEEB and Project Leader, Green Economy, United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), United Kingdom
For their collaboration and thought leadership on the related report: Global Risks Briefing: Biodiversity, January 2010, we would like to acknowledge: Will Evison, Senior Associate, Sustainability and Climate Change; PricewaterhouseCoopers, United Kingdom Chris Knight, Assistant Director, Sustainability and Climate Change, PricewaterhouseCoopers, United Kingdom Sophie Lambin, Director of Global Thought Leadership, PricewaterhouseCoopers, United Kingdom
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