"Insecurity exists everywhere – in the East and West. We have to think about common goals and looking for the proper solutions in all cultures to find common ground, fight extremism and insecurity, and then we may hope for a better future."
Mohammad Khatami
President of the Islamic Republic of Iran (1997-2005) |
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The fickle weather in Davos during the week of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting was oddly appropriate. The initial warmth and lack of snow were naturally a palpable reminder of global warming, a priority issue this year, while the on-off precipitation and up-down temperatures that gave way to steady sun on the final day reflected the unpredictability of world events and how quickly situations can change. As sessions began, participants were digesting US President George W. Bush’s announcement in his State of the Union address that the US would reduce oil dependency by 20% over the next 10 years. During the Meeting, reports that American military forces were targeting alleged Iranian agents in Iraq raised concerns about a potential conflict between the US and Iran. By the traditional farewell lunch on the sunny Schatzalp, many were talking about the decision the day before by 30 trade ministers assembled at Davos to restart the Doha Round of global trade negotiations.
The world has a lot on its plate. The global agenda in this world of rapid globalization - for good or ill - runs long with issues demanding constant attention. Among the most pressing: instability in the Middle East, particularly Iraq; communal strife in Africa, notably Darfur; the threat of terrorism; the proliferation of materials and weapons of mass destruction; public health crises stemming from the spread of infectious diseases; energy security worries, coupled with the need for urgent action on climate change; the consequences of the economic and political rise of large emerging markets, including China and India (emerging markets now constitute half the world economy); and the struggle to conclude the multilateral trade talks.
The international community must focus on these and other problems even as shifts in the geopolitical landscape make it even more difficult to do so. Consider the arrival of new centres of power, nations or regions made influential by commercial clout, energy resources and nuclear capabilities. For example, the renaissance of Asia to a large extent on the back of surging economic growth in China and India, each with a population of more than one billion, is steadily pulling the geopolitical centre of gravity across the Pacific Ocean. The new power players challenge and, in some cases, constrain US dominance.
Meanwhile, the quest for energy security is driving the foreign policy strategies of many countries and leading to new international alliances. Resource-hungry China has been busy forging relations in Africa, and elsewhere, to secure its energy needs (see Figure 4), taking a value-neutral, non-judgemental approach that can be a welcome alternative to countries tired of hectoring by the West about governance reform and human rights. In addition, the world has awakened to the threat from rogue states and failed states that could become havens for militant extremists. Finally, non-state actors both benign and malevolent - from committed NGOs and popular bloggers to terrorist groups and unknown viruses that could spawn pandemics - have also emerged as influential players. "The power equation is becoming a more complex differential equation," said Oxford University Professor Timothy Garton Ash. "Power is being diffused horizontally and vertically to make power more multilevel and multipolar."
| Widening the War on Hunger |
| "There's a big potential and a big scope for this partnership. We hope the World Economic Forum and all of you will look at this potential and work with African leadership to realize it."
Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, President of Liberia
"There is a lot business can do, either alone or in partnership with government or farmers. The experience of Kenya gives us an inspiration. We invite you to come and work with us - to look at Africa seriously and replicate the Kenyan example."
Jakaya Kikwete, President of Tanzania
In an effort to help their countries meet the top Millennium Development Goal of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger, the presidents of Liberia and Tanzania invited the World Economic Forum Business Alliance Against Chronic Hunger to expand its work beyond Kenya. The innovative public-private partnership identifies and tests new solutions to hunger and poverty, working to strengthen agricultural value chains. The Alliance was launched in Kenya's Siaya District by 30 multinational and local businesses, the government, NGOs and key experts. Unilever, TNT, Tetra Pak, Sealed Air and Nike, among others, are sourcing raw materials, transferring expertise, improving market information and developing entrepreneurship in the area.
At the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2007, business leaders met President Jakaya Kikwete of Tanzania and Liberian President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, as well as ministers from three other African countries, to endorse the Alliance's work and chart the year ahead. Their collective call for greater emphasis on creating local access to agricultural inputs, microfinance and fortified foods will be discussed in private meetings this year at the World Economic Forum on Africa in Cape Town in June. "If business joins with NGOs and governments, we can be extremely effective," said Antony Burgmans, Chairman of Unilever, who launched the project last year in a presentation to United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan. "We can make involvement in this alliance the norm for doing business in Africa. It is a great place to do business, and business can play an important role in meeting the challenges on the continent." |
What this means is that old attitudes and ways of thinking have to be discarded. Ideology-driven, cold war-era approaches can no longer address the more fluid and complex problems of the world. "Perspectives are changing," said German Chancellor Angela Merkel. "The fact is that a completely new global balance of power is being created." East-West, North-South, left-right - the adversarial or competitive paradigms of the past century no longer apply. Instead, in this age of heightened risks, what is required to confront the many challenges facing the international community is a new pragmatism that is based on a willingness to take a fresh look at issues, to adopt new ways of governance, to look for commonalities rather than focus on differences with other countries, to implement new mechanisms for cooperation that involve business and civil society, to institutionalize new power relationships, and to manage a fair rebalancing of the global power equation.
In his address at the closing plenary, Tony Blair called for just such adjustments that would aim at creating a "more muscular" multilateralism. "A key part of our international dialogue must now be strengthening the instruments and institutions - those between governments but also those within civic society - that can build capacity," said the prime minister. "We need new networks, new relationships between countries and between people that mobilize the practical means of effecting change." Blair proposed that the United Nations Security Council be expanded, that UN structural and administrative reforms push ahead, that the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank consider merging, and that the G8 plus Five (Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa) become institutionalized. The basis for regional blocs including the European Union (EU), now unwieldy with 27 members, must be revised to make them more effective, Blair added. Weak groups such as the African Union should have a stronger voice.
Such pragmatic approaches are already in progress. Pascal Lamy, Director-General, World Trade Organization (WTO), Geneva, reminded participants that the Doha Round is all about "rebalancing" the global trading system in favour of developing economies. At a session reviewing the progress over the past 40 years of the 10-member Association of South-East Asian Nations, the leaders of Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam stressed the significance of ASEAN’s decision in December 2006 to draft a charter that would create by 2015 an EU-style union, once considered impossible for the region. These are bold steps for treacherous times.
It was, however, the final session of the Annual Meeting, focusing on the theme of human dignity, that brought home the boldest message of the Meeting. Social entrepreneurs, civil society leaders and representatives of the Young Global Leaders Community gave testimony to the power of responsible individual and group action to make a difference. The ultimate power swing was undeniably clear: people are taking a stand and demanding action. It is the mandate of voters, households, communities, shareholders, stakeholders and organizations driving commerce and social development that bestows legitimacy. "We, as representatives of the states, cannot solve everything alone and cannot solve anything at all unless we rapidly improve our partnerships with business, academia and society as a whole," said President Micheline Calmy-Rey of the Swiss Confederation.
The global networks of individuals, civil society and companies are driving enormous power shifts. This is especially true on climate change and sustainability where novel partnerships have been formed to move forward where governments have lagged. Companies understand that sustainable practices are profitable and responsible. Just before the Annual Meeting, three US energy companies - General Electric, Alcoa and Duke Energy - announced their support for a "cap-and-trade" system and the setting of targets to reduce greenhouse gases by as much as 30% within 15 years. "It’s about time to get moving," said Alcoa’s Chairman and CEO Alain J. Belda. At Davos, a consortium of companies and NGOs agreed to set up the Climate Disclosure Standards Board that will coordinate carbon emission requests and standardize information received from companies.
It was Jordan’s King Abdullah II who best summed up the importance and urgency of questioning the existing geopolitical power equations. "World-shaping events and changes are not just challenges; they are choices," he observed in an address to participants. "We have the power to shift the equations - whether it is peace and war, or poverty and prosperity - by what we do together to understand and take action. Now is not the time to isolate good ideas in professional silos. Nor can we accept walls between different peoples and faiths." As UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown put it: "We are shaping the agenda in a new way. The age of the smoke-filled rooms is over."
The Business of Peace
At the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2007, the Forum announced the decision by 14 Israeli and Palestinian chief executives in Davos to create an Israeli-Palestinian business council. They had agreed to establish the group as an initiative of the World Economic Forum with the mission "to encourage and facilitate constructive cooperation between Israeli and Palestinian business leaders to reinforce their economic relationship and to help peace building efforts." The council, which will bring together some 200 Palestinian and Israeli CEOs, is to hold its inaugural assembly during the World Economic Forum on the Middle East at the Dead Sea in Jordan on 18-20 May 2007.
The launch of this business initiative took place against the backdrop of intensifying diplomatic efforts to restart negotiations to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In a session at the Annual Meeting in Davos in which they participated together, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Vice-Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Tzipi Livni reiterated the commitment of both sides to resuming talks. "The Middle East is in dire need of peace and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is one of the most serious conflicts that requires a solution," Abbas said. Added Livni: "We must stick to the vision of two states living side by side, together in peace."
