Overall, the World Economic Forum’s World Cup competitiveness head-to-heads correctly predicted the results of 34 out of 64 games played at this year’s tournament (53.1% accuracy). What hurt the precision of the predictions in the later stages were the relatively low scores of both Brazil and Argentina, two tournament favourites who progressed to the semi-finals and final respectively, and the relatively high scores of the European countries, especially Belgium.

However, the competitiveness scores did correctly predict some of the more unlikely results of the tournament, including Spain’s heavy loss to the Netherlands in the group stages and Germany’s rout of Brazil in the semi-final. And, most importantly, the scores pre-empted Germany’s ultimate victory in the final.

Though they may have been only slightly better than a coin toss as a forecasting tool, we hope they added something to your experience of the World Cup.

The full results can be found below:

Group stages

Group A

Qualified: Brazil; Mexico

Predicted: Croatia; Brazil

Group B

Qualified: Netherlands; Chile

Predicted: Netherlands; Australia

Group C

Qualified: Colombia; Greece

Predicted: Japan; Colombia

Group D

Qualified: Costa Rica; Uruguay

Predicted: England; Costa Rica

Group E

Qualified: France; Switzerland

Predicted: Switzerland; France

Group F

Qualified: Argentina; Nigeria

Predicted: Bosnia and Herzegovina; Argentina

Group G

Qualified: Germany; USA

Predicted: Germany; USA

Group H

Qualified: Belgium; Algeria

Predicted: Belgium; Korea Republic

Accuracy: 52.1%

Most accurate: Group E; Group G (67% correct)

Least accurate: Group D (33% correct)

Knockout stage

Last 16

Qualified: Brazil; Colombia; France; Germany; Netherlands; Costa Rica; Argentina; Belgium

Predicted: Chile; Colombia; France; Germany; Netherlands; Costa Rica; Switzerland; USA

Accuracy: 62.5%

Quarter finals

Brazil v Colombia

Prediction: 1-2 Result: 2-1

France v Germany

Prediction: 0-4 Result: 0-1

Netherlands v Costa Rica

Prediction: 4-0 Result: 0-0 (4-3 on penalties)

Argentina v Belgium

Prediction: 0-4 Result: 1-0

Qualified: Brazil; Germany; Netherlands; Argentina

Predicted: Colombia; Germany; Netherlands; Belgium

Accuracy: 50%


Brazil v Germany

Prediction: Result: 1-7

Netherlands v Argentina

Prediction: Result: 0-0 (2-4 on penalties)

Qualified: Germany; Argentina

Predicted: Germany; Netherlands

Accuracy: 50%

Third place play-off

Brazil v Netherlands

Prediction: 0-4 Result: 0-3 


Germany v Argentina

Prediction: 4-0 Result: 1-0

Winner: Germany

Predicted: Germany

Tournament accuracy: 53.1%

Author: Tomas Hirst is commissioning editor, digital content, at the World Economic Forum

Image: Germany players celebrate with their trophy after winning the 2014 World Cup final between Germany and Argentina at the Maracana stadium in Rio de Janeiro July 13, 2014. REUTERS/Darren Staples