The Greek government’s painful negotiations for its next tranche of bailout money are dragging on and on. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras now says he expects a deal within the next couple of weeks — of course, finance minister Yanis Varoufakis also said that he expected a deal by April 24.

Wolfango Piccoli at Teneo Intelligence has laid out in simple terms how the negotiations play out — what different circumstances might lead to success, capital controls, or new elections — and attached probabilities to each of the scenarios.

He reckons there’s a 64% chance overall that a deal is reached and approved by early July, and just a 13.5% of no deal at all. But even then, there’s a pretty high probability of capital controls (45%)

Take a look at the full chart (Head over here to zoom in on the graph if you’re having trouble viewing).

150428-greece options diagram business insider


This article is published in collaboration with Business Insider. Publication does not imply endorsement of views by the World Economic Forum.

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Author: Mike Bird is a European markets reporter, working from London and covering financial and economic issues.

Image: A European Union (L) and Greek flag wave in front of the Parthenon temple in Athens April 11, 2011. REUTERS/John Kolesidis.