There’s speculation that Greece will default on its debts if it misses an International Monetary Fund (IMF) repayment due by June 30th. If that happens, Greece would be at risk of losing the confidence of creditors, which could lead to the removal of support for its banks, and an exit from the Eurozone (‘Grexit’.)
Greece faces three options: 1) Agree a late deal with Eurozone creditors, avoid default, and remain in the Eurozone; 2) Fail to agree a deal, default on IMF and European Central Bank repayments, and face threat of Grexit; 3) Fail to agree a deal but gain agreement to stay within the Eurozone for now.
Greece must meet a series of challenging loan repayments in the coming weeks. The more of these that are missed, the greater the risk of default and Grexit. Meanwhile, European creditors have a series of meetings at which the state of affairs will be discussed and statements issued. In similar circumstances, European nations have also arranged emergency summits at short notice.
Potential Grexit trigger-points
18 June: General Council meeting of the ECB to reassess continuing support for Greek banks in case of default.
19 June: Eurozone finance ministers meet to discuss possible late deal with Greece.
25 June: European Union leaders Summit in Brussels.
30 June: Greece’s Eurozone bailout expires and deadline for 1.5 billion euros IMF debt repayment is due.
1 July: Governing Council of the ECB non-monetary policy meeting.
10 July: Greece needs to refinance 2 billion euros in Treasury bills.
13 July: IMF loans of 450 million euros due. Eurozone finance ministers meeting.
14 July: Greece needs to repay 11.67 billion Japanese in yen loans
16 July: ECB meeting in Frankfurt.
17 July: Greece to refinance 1 billion euros in Treasury bills.
20 July: Greece needs to repay around 3.5 billion euros in bond redemptions for bonds held by the ECB.
5 August: Interest on IMF loans totalling around 175 million euros due.
5 August: Governing Council of the ECB non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt.
7 August: Greece needs to refinance 1 billion euros in Treasury bills.
14 August: Greece needs to refinance 1.4 billion euros in Treasury bills.
20 August: Greece needs to repay around 3.2 billion euros in bond redemptions for bonds held by the ECB.
Author: Chris Parker is Head of Digital Media for the World Economic Forum
Image: Close-up of a Greek one-Euro coin. REUTERS/Yannis Behrakis