Is Europe on the road to recovery?

As IMF Chief Christine Lagarde has recently pointed out, the euro area may struggle to find its swagger while it’s still sitting on 900 billion euros of non-performing loans. However, away from trial-by-monthly-economic-data, there are reasons to be optimistic.

Swagger may be an overstatement of the facts, but the European Union is starting to strut a little.

Over the last 12 months the jobless rate has fallen in 22 European countries. The raw gross domestic product (GDP) data also points to an improvement. Second-quarter GDP increased in all 28 EU states except France where it stayed flat. And the consumer was a bright spot: household final consumption expenditure had a positive contribution to GDP growth in the euro area and the EU28.

Whisper it quietly, but Europe’s long ignored emerging markets are also getting their mojo back. The Czech Republic, Croatia, Slovakia and the Baltic states are set for 2-3 percent growth this year. It has been a long road to recovery, but this is one part of the world that has been a net beneficiary of falling oil and commodity prices.

There is also good evidence of supply side economic improvement. European countries figured strongly in the top 25 in the recently released Global Innovation Index. Switzerland came first, followed by the U.K., Sweden and the Netherlands. Ireland was a notable performer, the small country devastated in the financial crisis of 2008, managed to leap from 11th place to eighth this year. In case you were wondering, the US came in fifth. Europe then clearly has world beating companies with world beating technology.

These companies are also rewarding investors with higher dividend pay-outs and better earnings. The second quarter of 2015 was the best quarter for five years. Fingers are crossed that the third quarter will also deliver in spite of the weaker macro outlook.

Analysts have pointed to the recovery in financial sector dividend payments as particularly encouraging.

Don’t crack open the champagne just yet. The fug of smoky fumes from a maladjusted small engine diesel Volkswagen is set to obscure some of the better news. Europe is grappling with a refugee crisis, the German automotive sector is facing significant fines, and Greece is still a problem postponed rather than solved. But investors would be premature to write-off Europe.

Just like Downton’s irrepressible Dowager Countess, Europe has an enduring ability to recover just as its obituary is being sent to the typesetters.

This article is published in collaboration with CNBC.com as part of its Europe Needs Swagger series. Publication does not imply endorsement of views by the World Economic Forum.

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Author: Geoff Cutmore is co-anchor for CNBC’s flagship programme Squawk Box in EMEA.

Image: European Union flags fly outside the European Commission headquarters in Brussels. REUTERS/Thierry Roge.