The macroeconomic implications of a global trade war

Feb 11, 2019

Shipping containers are stacked on a ship docked at Yusen Terminals (YTI) on Terminal Island at the Port of Los Angeles in Los Angeles, California, U.S., January 30, 2019. REUTERS/Mike Blake - RC16CD769B60

Trade tensions are high. Image: REUTERS/Mike Blake

Antoine Berthou

Economist, Banque de France; and Associate Researcher,, CEPII

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Image: Authors’ calculation.

Note: Effects of corresponding shocks obtained from separate GIMF simulations. A ‘low’ effect corresponds to a shock of one standard deviation on the financing cost and on uncertainty affecting investment. A ‘high’ effect corresponds to shocks equivalent to two standard deviations. The direct trade effect is unchanged. Image: Authors’ calculation.

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