United States

The macroeconomic implications of a global trade war

Shipping containers are stacked on a ship docked at Yusen Terminals (YTI) on Terminal Island at the Port of Los Angeles in Los Angeles, California, U.S., January 30, 2019.   REUTERS/Mike Blake - RC16CD769B60

Trade tensions are high. Image: REUTERS/Mike Blake

Urszula Szczerbowicz
Research Economist, , Banque de France
Daniele Siena
Research Economist, , Banque de France
Caroline Jardet
Senior Economist, Banque de France
Antoine Berthou
Economist, Banque de France; and Associate Researcher,, CEPII
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Image: Authors’ calculation.
 Note: Effects of corresponding shocks obtained from separate GIMF simulations. A ‘low’ effect corresponds to a shock of one standard deviation on the financing cost and on uncertainty affecting investment. A ‘high’ effect corresponds to shocks equivalent to two standard deviations. The direct trade effect is unchanged.
Note: Effects of corresponding shocks obtained from separate GIMF simulations. A ‘low’ effect corresponds to a shock of one standard deviation on the financing cost and on uncertainty affecting investment. A ‘high’ effect corresponds to shocks equivalent to two standard deviations. The direct trade effect is unchanged. Image: Authors’ calculation.
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