Coronavirus: An economist’s view of the epidemiological curve

Mar 27, 2020

Members of a cleaning crew high-five before entering the Life Care Center of Kirkland, the Seattle-area nursing home at the epicenter of one of the biggest coronavirus outbreaks in the United States, in Kirkland, Washington, U.S. March 12, 2020 Coronavirus china virus health healthcare who world health organization disease deaths pandemic epidemic worries concerns Health virus contagious contagion viruses diseases disease lab laboratory doctor health dr nurse medical medicine drugs vaccines vaccinations inoculations technology testing test medicinal biotechnology biotech biology chemistry physics microscope research influenza flu cold common cold bug risk symptomes respiratory china iran italy europe asia america south america north washing hands wash hands coughs sneezes spread spreading precaution precautions health warning covid 19 cov SARS 2019ncov wuhan sarscow wuhanpneumonia pneumonia outbreak patients unhealthy fatality mortality elderly old elder age serious death deathly deadly

Richard Baldwin warns of grave errors, if analysts believe that COVID-19 will follow an exponential curve. Image: REUTERS/David Ryder

Richard Baldwin

Professor of International Economics, Graduate Institute, Geneva

Our Impact

The Big Picture

Explore and monitor how COVID-19 is affecting economies, industries and global issues

A hand holding a looking glass by a lake

Crowdsource Innovation

Get involved with our crowdsourced digital platform to deliver impact at scale

Stay up to date:

COVID-19

Have you read?

Coronavirus china virus health healthcare who world health organization disease deaths pandemic epidemic worries concerns Health virus contagious contagion viruses diseases disease lab laboratory doctor health dr nurse medical medicine drugs vaccines vaccinations inoculations technology testing test medicinal biotechnology biotech biology chemistry physics microscope research influenza flu cold common cold bug risk symptomes respiratory china iran italy europe asia america south america north washing hands wash hands coughs sneezes spread spreading precaution precautions health warning covid 19 cov SARS 2019ncov wuhan sarscow wuhanpneumonia pneumonia outbreak patients unhealthy fatality mortality elderly old elder age serious death deathly deadly

Figure 1a Typical seasonal flu epi curve for Canada, and CDC epi curve ‘intervals’. Image: Dena et al (2010)

Figure 1b Typical seasonal flu epi curve for Canada, and CDC epi curve ‘intervals’. Image: Dena et al (2010).

Figure 2 China’s epidemiological curve for COVID-19, 31 December 2019 – 11 March 2020. Image: Author’s elaboration of European CDC data

Figure 3 Simulation of COVID-19’s new case evolution in 2020 Image: Anderson et al. (2020)

Figure 4 Epi curve for South Korea versus the US as of 11 March 2020. Image: Author’s elaboration of European CDC data

Figure 5 Epi curve flattening saves lives by avoiding hospital overloads Image: Author’s elaboration.

Don't miss any update on this topic

Create a free account and access your personalized content collection with our latest publications and analyses.

License and Republishing

World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License, and in accordance with our Terms of Use.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

The Agenda Weekly

A weekly update of the most important issues driving the global agenda

Subscribe today

You can unsubscribe at any time using the link in our emails. For more details, review our privacy policy.

More on COVID-19
See all

From smallpox to COVID: the medical inventions that have seen off infectious diseases over the past century

Andrea Willige

May 11, 2023

COVID-19 is no longer a global health emergency. Here's what it means

Simon Nicholas Williams

May 9, 2023

New research shows the significant health harms of the pandemic

Philip Clarke, Jack Pollard and Mara Violato

April 17, 2023

Candida auris: What you need to know about the deadly fungus spreading through US hospitals

Rebecca A. Drummond

April 11, 2023

Understanding the impact of COVID-19 supply disruptions on exporters in global value chains

Laura Lebastard, Marco Matani and Roberta Serafini

March 29, 2023

Here's how air pollution increases COVID risk

Samuel J. White and Philippe B. Wilson

March 23, 2023