Coronavirus: An economist’s view of the epidemiological curve

Mar 27, 2020

Members of a cleaning crew high-five before entering the Life Care Center of Kirkland, the Seattle-area nursing home at the epicenter of one of the biggest coronavirus outbreaks in the United States, in Kirkland, Washington, U.S. March 12, 2020 Coronavirus china virus health healthcare who world health organization disease deaths pandemic epidemic worries concerns Health virus contagious contagion viruses diseases disease lab laboratory doctor health dr nurse medical medicine drugs vaccines vaccinations inoculations technology testing test medicinal biotechnology biotech biology chemistry physics microscope research influenza flu cold common cold bug risk symptomes respiratory china iran italy europe asia america south america north washing hands wash hands coughs sneezes spread spreading precaution precautions health warning covid 19 cov SARS 2019ncov wuhan sarscow wuhanpneumonia pneumonia outbreak patients unhealthy fatality mortality elderly old elder age serious death deathly deadly

Richard Baldwin warns of grave errors, if analysts believe that COVID-19 will follow an exponential curve. Image: REUTERS/David Ryder

Richard Baldwin

Professor of International Economics, Graduate Institute, Geneva

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Coronavirus china virus health healthcare who world health organization disease deaths pandemic epidemic worries concerns Health virus contagious contagion viruses diseases disease lab laboratory doctor health dr nurse medical medicine drugs vaccines vaccinations inoculations technology testing test medicinal biotechnology biotech biology chemistry physics microscope research influenza flu cold common cold bug risk symptomes respiratory china iran italy europe asia america south america north washing hands wash hands coughs sneezes spread spreading precaution precautions health warning covid 19 cov SARS 2019ncov wuhan sarscow wuhanpneumonia pneumonia outbreak patients unhealthy fatality mortality elderly old elder age serious death deathly deadly

Figure 1a Typical seasonal flu epi curve for Canada, and CDC epi curve ‘intervals’. Image: Dena et al (2010)

Figure 1b Typical seasonal flu epi curve for Canada, and CDC epi curve ‘intervals’. Image: Dena et al (2010).

Figure 2 China’s epidemiological curve for COVID-19, 31 December 2019 – 11 March 2020. Image: Author’s elaboration of European CDC data

Figure 3 Simulation of COVID-19’s new case evolution in 2020 Image: Anderson et al. (2020)

Figure 4 Epi curve for South Korea versus the US as of 11 March 2020. Image: Author’s elaboration of European CDC data

Figure 5 Epi curve flattening saves lives by avoiding hospital overloads Image: Author’s elaboration.

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