This white paper provides a grounded timeline for vehicle autonomy adoption, offering insights into the road ahead for policymakers, business leaders and the public. While early forecasts expected mass adoption of autonomous vehicles in the 2020s, this paper projects a more gradual path, driven by key remaining technological, operational and regulatory challenges.

The paper focuses on three key use cases: personal vehicles, robotaxis and autonomous trucks. The analyses suggest that assisted vehicles, rather than autonomous ones, will dominate new personal vehicle capabilities through 2035 and beyond and that large-scale robotaxi deployments will remain limited to select global cities for the next decade. For autonomous trucks, their clear business advantages will drive adoption in leading regions, particularly for long-haul and mid-distance hub-to-hub routes

To accelerate the safe deployment of vehicle autonomy, the paper outlines five critical actions: building public trust, advancing technology, ensuring regulatory alignment, optimizing business models and fostering industry collaboration.