The energy transition will cause big shifts in dependencies – away from oil and other fossil fuels, and towards a raft of critical minerals such as lithium and copper. Will this trading of places have dangerous political and environmental consequences? This paper, authored by the World Economic Forum Global Future Council on the Future of Energy Transition, offers a broad framework for answering this question.

An analysis of the supply and demand dynamics of critical minerals leads to the conclusion that while most concerns have historically focused on the extent and concentration of supply, the most important factors driving potential scarcity in critical materials are actually found in the realm of demand. The paper goes on to outline “today’s unknowables” – areas where too many uncertainties deserve world leaders’ attention – and goes on to provide a set of “no-regrets” interventions for governments and private-sector players to mitigate increasing dependences and avoid potential bottlenecks.