Full report
Published: 20 April 2021

Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2021 edition

Notes

1: International Energy Agency (IEA), “Total Energy Supply by Source, World 1990-2018”, World Energy Balances 2020, https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics?country=WORLD&fuel=Energy%20supply&indicator=TPESbySource

2: International Energy Agency (IEA), SDG7: Data and Projections, October 2020, https://www.iea.org/reports/sdg7-dataand-projections/access-to-electricity

3: Naschert, Camilla, “‘Immune to COVID-19’: Renewables behind 90% of new capacity in 2020 – IEA”, S&P Global Market Intelligence, 10 November 2020, https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/ immune-to-covid-19-renewables-behind-90-of-new-capacity-in-2020-8211-iea-61189791

4: International Energy Agency (IEA), Global Energy Review: CO2 Emissions in 2020, https://www.iea.org/articles/globalenergy-review-co2-emissions-in-2020

5: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), “SDG Summit, 24-25 September 2019, New York”, https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdgsummit

6: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development, 2018, https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-2/

7: Statista, “Average annual OPEC crude oil price from 1960 toi 2021”, 2021, https://www.statista.com/statistics/262858/ change-in-opec-crude-oil-prices-since-1960/

8: Ritchie, Hannah and Max Roser, “Renewable Energy”, Our World In Data, 2020, https://ourworldindata.org/renewableenergy

9: ibid.

10: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Energy Transition Investment Trends, 19 January 2021, https://assets.bbhub.io/ professional/sites/24/Energy-Transition-Investment-Trends_Free-Summary_Jan2021.pdf

11: World Bank, “World GDP 1960-2019”, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?most_recent_value_ desc=true

12: International Energy Agency (IEA), “Total Energy Supply by Source, World 1990-2018”, World Energy Balances 2020, https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics?country=WORLD&fuel=Energy%20supply&indicator=TPESbySource

13: Cherp, Aleh et al. “Integrating techno-economic, socio-technical and political perspectives on national energy transitions: A meta-theoretical framework”, Energy Research & Social Science, vol. 37, 2018, pp. 175-190

14: For discussion on energy system’s interlinkages with other systems, see Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2019, World Economic Forum

15: European Commission, Energy Prices and Costs in Europe, 14 October 2020, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/ EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52020DC0951&from=EN

16: UN News, “Rising inequality affecting more than two-thirds of the globe, but it’s not inevitable: new UN report”, 21 January 2020, https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/01/1055681

17: International Labor Organization (ILO), “Employment and the role of workers and employers in a green economy”, World Employment and Social Outlook 2018 – Greening with jobs, https://www.ilo.org/weso-greening/documents/ WESO_Greening_EN_chap2_web.pdf

18: International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Renewable Energy: A Gender Perspective, January 2019, https://www. irena.org/publications/2019/Jan/Renewable-Energy-A-Gender-Perspective

19: Czako, V., Employment in the Energy Sector, (p.40, section 7), EUR 30186 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2020, https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/eur-scientific-and-technical-research-reports/ employment-energy-sector

20: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Just Transition of the Workforce, and the Creation of Decent Work and Quality Jobs, https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Just%20transition.pdf

21: Sources: International Renewable Energy Agency, IRENA, “Renewable Energy Employment by Country”, 2019, https://www.irena.org/Statistics/View-Data-by-Topic/Benefits/Renewable-Energy-Employment-by-Country and World Bank, “Labor Force, Total”, 2020, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.TOTL.IN

22: Randall, Tom and Hayley Warren, “Peak oil is suddenly upon us”, Bloomberg, 1 December 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-peak-oil-era-is-suddenly-upon-us

23: Elgouacem, Assia et al., The fiscal implications of the low-carbon transition, Issue Paper, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 26 November 2019, https://www.oecd.org/greengrowth/GGSD_Forum%20 Paper_Fiscal%20Implications.pdf

24: Fetter, Rob et al., “You can’t fight pandemics without power – electric power”, Brookings Institute, 5 June 2020, https:// www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/06/05/you-cant-fight-pandemics-without-power-electric-power/

25: Ogunbiyi, Damilola, “Here’s why energy security is a vital tool in tackling a pandemic”, World Economic Forum, 6 April 2020, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/pandemic-energy-access-coronavirus

26: Source: School of Earth and Environment, Leeds University, UK

27: World Bank, “World Development Indicators”, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS

28: World Bank, Doing Business 2020, http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/688761571934946384/pdf/DoingBusiness-2020-Comparing-Business-Regulation-in-190-Economies.pdf

29: Financial Times, “Blackouts spread beyond Texas as frigid weather knocks out power plants”, 15 February 2021, https://www.ft.com/content/4d07eedc-b3ec-417e-8cb1-5895178c9f9b

30: Ochiai, Shuhei and Mitsutoshi Masuno, “Facing blackout, Japan’s Tepco asks other sectors for electricity”, Nikkei Asia, 6 January 2021, https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/Facing-blackout-Japan-s-Tepco-asks-other-sectors-for-electricity

31: Accenture, From Reliability to Resilience: Confronting the Challenges of Extreme Weather, 2020, https://www.accenture. com/_acnmedia/PDF-124/Accenture-Resilience-Extreme-Weather-POV.pdf#zoom=40

32: International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Balances 2020; 2017 GDP PPP data from World Bank: https://data. worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD; Population data from World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ SP.POP.TOTL

33: Konschnik, Katherine and Frances Reuland, “Canada steps up its efforts to reduce methane emissions”, International Energy Agency (IEA), 17 February 2020, https://www.iea.org/commentaries/canada-steps-up-its-efforts-to-reducemethane-emissions

34: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Energy Transition Investment Trends, 2021, https://about.bnef.com/energy-transitioninvestment/

35: Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, “Net zero: the scorecard”, 2020, https://eciu.net/analysis/briefings/net-zero/netzero-the-scorecard

36: Climate Action Tracker, “Methodology Note”, CAT Climate governance series, December 2020, https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/839/2020-12_CAT_ClimateGovernance_Methodology_Note.pdf

37: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Energy Transition Investment Trends, 2021, https://about.bnef.com/energy-transitioninvestment/

38: Calculated from: BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2020, https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energyeconomics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html

39: Calculated from: Ember, Global Electricity Review, 2020 (data from 2019), https://ember-climate.org/data/globalelectricity/

40: International Energy Agency (IEA), Coal 2020, Analysis and forecast to 2025, December 2020, https://www.iea.org/ reports/coal-2020/demand

41: UN News, “Rising inequality affecting more than two-thirds of the globe, but it’s not inevitable: new UN report”, 21 January 2020, https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/01/1055681

42: Vivid Economics, “Green Stimulus Index”, 24 April 2020, https://www.vivideconomics.com/wp-content/ uploads/2020/05/200506-Stimulus-Green-Index-summary-report.pdf

43: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Emissions Gap Report 2020, 9 December 2020, https://www. unenvironment.org/emissions-gap-report-2020

44: The Economist, “The many guises of vaccine nationalism”,11 March 2021, https://www.economist.com/finance-andeconomics/2021/03/13/the-many-guises-of-vaccine-nationalism

45: World Bank, “Statement: Putting a Price on Carbon”, 3 June 2014, https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/ document/Carbon-Pricing-Statement-060314.pdf

46: Just Transition Centre, Just Transition, A Report for the OECD, May 2017, https://www.oecd.org/environment/cc/g20- climate/collapsecontents/Just-Transition-Centre-report-just-transition.pdf

47: European Commission, “The Just Transition Mechanism: making sure no one is left behind”, https://ec.europa.eu/info/ strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal/actions-being-taken-eu/just-transition-mechanism_en

48: World Economic Forum, “System Value”, https://www.weforum.org/projects/system-value

49: Climate Change Committee, “Building back better – Raising the UK’s climate ambitions for 2035 will put Net Zero within reach and change the UK for the better”, 9 December 2020, https://www.theccc.org.uk/2020/12/09/buildingback-better-raising-the-uks-climate-ambitions-for-2035-will-put-net-zero-within-reach-and-change-the-uk-for-thebetter/#:~:text=Under%20the%20UK%20Climate%20Change,be%20legislated%20by%20June%202021

50: The Economist, “How Britain decarbonized faster than any other rich country”, 15 February 2021, https://www. economist.com/britain/2021/02/15/how-britain-decarbonised-faster-than-any-other-rich-country

51: European Commission, “Questions and Answers: An open, sustainable and assertive trade policy”, 18 February 2021, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_645

52: European Alternative Fuels Observatory, “Alternative fuels, Vehicles and fleet, Norway”, July 2020, https://www.eafo.eu/ countries/norway/1747/incentives

53: International Labor Organization (ILO), World Employment and Social Outlook 2018 – Greening with jobs, 14 May 2018, https://www.ilo.org/global/publications/books/WCMS_628654/lang—en/index.htm

54: The Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves, “Delivering on the SDGs through clean cooking”, https:// sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/11416Global%20Alliance%20for%20Clean%20Cookstoves%20 -%20Delivering%20on%20the%20SDGs%20through%20Clean%20Cooking.pdf

55: United Nations, “Inclusive, Networked Multilateralism Vital for Better World Governance, Says Secretary-General, at General Assembly’s Seventy-Fifth Anniversary Meeting”, 21 September 2020, https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/ sgsm20264.doc.htm

56: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Climate Action Pathways, 2021, https://unfccc. int/climate-action/marrakech-partnership/reporting-and-tracking/climate_action_pathways

57: World Economic Forum, “Mission Possible Partnership”, https://www.weforum.org/projects/mission-possible-platform

58: Race To Zero, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Transforming Our Systems Together: A global challenge to accelerate sector breakthroughs for COP26 – and beyond, 2021, https://racetozero. unfccc.int/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Race-to-Zero-Breakthroughs-Transforming-Our-Systems-Together.pdf

59: UK Government, “UK sets ambitious new climate target ahead of UN Summit”, 3 December 2020, https://www.gov.uk/ government/news/uk-sets-ambitious-new-climate-target-ahead-of-un-summit

60: UK Government, The Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution, November 2020, https://assets.publishing.service. gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/936567/10_POINT_PLAN_BOOKLET.pdf

61: International Airlines Group, “Flightpath net zero”, https://www.iairgroup.com/en/sustainability/flightpath-net-zero

62: One World, “oneworld member airlines commit to net zero carbon emissions by 2050”, 11 September 2020, https:// www.oneworld.com/news/2020-09-11-oneworld-member-airlines-commit-to-net-zero-carbon-emissions-by-2050

63: General Motors, “Reducing Carbon Impact”, 2019 Sustainability Report, https://www.gmsustainability.com/materialtopics/reducing-carbon-impact.html

64: Nestlé, “Nestlé sets out plan to half emissions by 2030 and be net zero by 2050”, 3 December 2020, https://www.nestle. co.uk/en-gb/media/pressreleases/allpressreleases/nestle-global-roadmap-to-achieve-net-zero

65: NDC Partnership, https://ndcpartnership.org/

66: Gulati, Manisha et al, The Economic Case for Greening the Global Recovery through Cities: 7 priorities for national governments, 14 September 2020, https://urbantransitions.global/en/publication/the-economic-case-for-greening-theglobal-recovery-through-cities/

67: UK Government, The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review, 14 August 2019, https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/the-economics-of-biodiversity-the-dasgupta-review

68: World Energy Council and Marsh & McLennan, Cyber challenges to the Energy Transition, 2019, https://www.worldenergy.org/assets/downloads/Cyber_Challenges_to_the_Energy_Transition_WEC_MMC_2019.pdf

69: World Bank, “Mineral Production to Soar as Demand for Clean Energy Increases”, 11 May 2020, https://www.worldbank. org/en/news/press-release/2020/05/11/mineral-production-to-soar-as-demand-for-clean-energy-increases

70: International Maritime Organization (IMO), The International Maritime Organization’s Initial Greenhouse Gas Strategy, April 2018, https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/IMO_GHG_StrategyFInalPolicyUpdate042318.pdf

71: Ember, EU Power Sector in 2020, https://ember-climate.org/project/eu-power-sector-2020/

72: International Energy Agency (IEA), Digitalisation and Energy, November 2017, https://www.iea.org/reports/digitalisationand-energy

73: Northern Lights, “Accelerating decarbonisation”, https://northernlightsccs.com

74: Government of Chile, National Green Hydrogen Strategy, November 2020, https://energia.gob.cl/sites/default/files/ national_green_hydrogen_strategy_-_chile.pdf

75: International Energy Agency (IEA), “Cities are at the frontline of the energy transition”, 7 September 2016, https://www.iea.org/news/cities-are-at-the-frontline-of-the-energy-transition

76: Accenture, To Affinity and Beyond: From Me to We, The Rise of the Purpose-led Brand, 2018, https://www.accenture. com/_acnmedia/Thought-Leadership-Assets/PDF/Accenture-CompetitiveAgility-GCPR-POV.pdf

77: Lauchlan, Stuart, “Bringing sustainability in from the corporate sidelines – a post-pandemic enterprise ambition from Accenture and Salesforce”, 29 January 2021, Diginomica, https://diginomica.com/bringing-sustainability-corporatesidelines-post-pandemic-enterprise-ambition-accenture-and

78: Business Wire, “Accenture Sets Industry-Leading Net-Zero, Waste and Water Goals”, 8 October 2020, https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201008006080/en/Accenture-Sets-Industry-Leading-Net-Zero-Wasteand-Water-Goals

79: Accenture, The European double up, 22 January 2021, https://www.accenture.com/us-en/insights/strategy/europeandouble-up

80: Accenture, The green behind the cloud, 22 September 2020, https://www.accenture.com/us-en/insights/strategy/greenbehind-cloud

81: Oil and Gas Climate Initiative, https://oilandgasclimateinitiative.com

82: Oil and Gas Climate Initiative, “Our portfolio: Recycling carbon dioxide”, https://oilandgasclimateinitiative.com/climateinvestments/investment-portfolio-recycling-carbon-dioxide-ccus/

83: Total, “Climate Indicators: GHG – Scope 1 (operated scope)”, https://www.sustainable-performance.total.com/en/ climate-indicators

84: Accenture, “Accenture Introduces Green Technology Suite to Help Organizations Use IT to Assess and Improve Green Agenda”, 23 July 2008, https://newsroom.accenture.com/subjects/technology/accenture-introduces-green-technologysuite-to-help-organizations-use-it-to-assess-and-improve-green-agenda.htm

85: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), “Commitments to Net Zero Double in Less Than a Year”, 21 September 2020, https://unfccc.int/news/commitments-to-net-zero-double-in-less-than-a-year

86: Climate Finance Leadership Initiative, Financing the Low Carbon Future: A Private-Sector View on Mobilizing Climate Finance, September 2019, https://data.bloomberglp.com/company/sites/55/2019/09/Financing-the-Low-CarbonFuture_CFLI-Full-Report_September-2019.pdf

87: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5˚C, 2018, https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/

88: International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Investment 2020, May 2020, https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energyinvestment-2020

89: The fossil fuel reserves held by the top 100 listed coal companies and the top 100 listed oil and gas companies represent potential emissions of 745 GtCO2. This exceeds the remaining global carbon budget of 565 GtCO2 by 180 GtCO2 (30% over). Source: https://www.banktrack.org/download/unburnable_carbon/unburnablecarbonfullrev2.pdf

90: Financial Times, “Analysts expect as much as $500bn of green bonds in bumper 2021”, 3 January 2021, https://www.ft.com/content/021329aa-b0bd-4183-8559-0f3260b73d62

91: Climate Finance Leadership Initiative, Financing the Low Carbon Future: A Private-Sector View on Mobilizing Climate Finance, September 2019, https://data.bloomberglp.com/company/sites/55/2019/09/Financing-the-Low-CarbonFuture_CFLI-Full-Report_September-2019.pdf

92: BNP Paribas, “The Ascent of Sustainability-linked Bonds”, 16 December 2020, https://cib.bnpparibas.com/sustain/theascent-of-sustainability-linked-bonds_a-3-3900.html#

93: International Capital Market Association (ICMA), Sustainability-Linked Bond Principles: Voluntary Process Guidelines, June 2020, https://www.icmagroup.org/assets/documents/Regulatory/Green-Bonds/June-2020/Sustainability-LinkedBond-Principles-June-2020-171120.pdf

94: European Central Bank (ECB), “ECB to accept sustainability-linked bonds as collateral”, 22 September 2020, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2020/html/ecb.pr200922~482e4a5a90.en.html

95: World Bank, “World Bank Announces $14 Million Bond Payment for Methane and Nitrous Oxide Reduction”, 3 December 2020, https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/12/03/world-bank-announces-14-million-bond-paymentfor-methane-and-nitrous-oxide-reduction?cid=EXT_WBEmailShare_EXT

96: Ra, Sungsup and Zhigang Li, Closing the Financing Gap in Asian Infrastructure, June 2018, Asian Development Bank, ADB South Asia Working Paper Series No. 57, https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/431261/swp-057- financing-gap-asian-infrastructure.pdf

97: Handler, Brad and Morgan Bazilian, “Securitization a Useful Financing Tool for Transition From Coal”, Power, 23 November 2020, https://www.powermag.com/securitization-a-useful-financing-tool-for-transition-from-coal/

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