Japan in a world of rising middle powers

The rising influence of middle powers is reshaping the global order. This was made clear by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the World Economic Forum in Davos, who called for greater coordination among like-minded countries to prevent further rupture of the rules-based system. From Ukraine to the Middle East, conflict is testing the old order. Middle powers are assuming increasingly pivotal roles in economic resilience, energy security, supply chain stability and diplomacy. The era of binary alignment is giving way to more flexible, issue-based cooperation.

Middle powers are not defined by GDP or military expenditure alone, but by meaningful economic weight, diplomatic reach and convening power. Deeply embedded in global trade, technology and financial networks, they have a vested interest in ensuring stability and the flexibility to bridge divides in a polarized environment.

Cooperation among middle powers is becoming more critical in preserving the connective tissue of globalization. Areas such as supply chains, critical minerals, frontier innovation, AI governance, energy transition and digital trade offer strong foundations for collaboration.

Japan’s history of pragmatic diplomacy gives it both experience and credibility to take a leading position among middle powers. Since the 1970s, it has demonstrated an ability to diversify economic and diplomatic ties across East and South-East Asia, Africa and Latin America while maintaining its core alliances. Today, Japan is the world’s second largest source of outward FDI, accounting for approximately 11.9% of global flows in 2024 – much of it directed beyond the United States and Europe to ASEAN, Oceania and Latin America.

Japan has also proactively formed deeper partnerships. Recent agreements with Australia on rare earths and mining infrastructure illustrate how such cooperation can strengthen economic resilience while remaining anchored in the broader global economy.

Japan’s approach emphasizes quality, capacity-building and long-term partnership. The result is a strong level of trust and respect with middle powers, including across the Global South, as both a security and trade partner. In South-East Asia, Japan is often perceived as the most trusted and responsible partner, reflecting decades of sustained economic cooperation, development assistance and respectful diplomatic engagement.

For middle powers seeking to collaborate on advanced technologies, Japan stands out as one of the few peers with both the technological capability and strategic intent to lead. It maintains a strong footprint in such fields as regenerative medicine, AI, robotics and advanced materials. Its leadership in regenerative medicine – particularly induced pluripotent stem cell research and the shift towards commercial-scale production – demonstrates its ability to translate scientific excellence into real-world application. Building on this credibility, Japan is also helping to shape global governance, including through initiatives like the Hiroshima AI Process to promote the responsible development and adoption of AI.

The space economy is another compelling example. Japan is the fifth country to achieve a lunar landing and ranks sixth globally with the most satellites in orbit. Uniquely among middle powers, its space sector spans the full ecosystem – from government agencies and established firms to a rapidly growing start-up landscape.

Space also proves to be an instructive case study of Japan’s capacity to leverage frontier technologies as instruments of middle-power diplomacy. Beyond domestic innovation, it uses its space capabilities to advance international public-private partnerships – supporting countries across South-East Asia, the Indo-Pacific and parts of Africa through satellite data sharing, joint missions and capacity-building in climate monitoring, disaster response, and maritime awareness.

These initiatives help partner countries build their own technical capabilities while strengthening shared norms around transparency, resilience and the peaceful use of outer space, demonstrating how frontier technologies can serve as platforms for deeper cooperation among middle powers.

Japan is a credible middle-power leader – but past achievements will not suffice. As geopolitical competition intensifies, the cost of inaction will rise and the space to shape future outcomes will shrink, requiring Japan to lean on its strengths.

This could mean looking beyond its immediate neighbourhood to deepen ties with Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. By building on existing relationships, Japan can diversify supply chains, bolster resilience and support the Global South in adopting and governing frontier technologies.

At the same time, Japan can look inward – investing in innovation and science, as the foundations of its influence abroad. This requires stronger public-private partnerships and closer coordination with academia and start-up ecosystems to scale research and deliver real-world solutions. By doing so, Japan can sustain a proactive posture even amid geopolitical uncertainty.