Have we reached 'peak trade'? New research may have the answer

Jan 10, 2017

A ship is loaded with containers at Sydney's Port Botany container terminal March 4, 2013. Australia's trade deficit shrank by much more than expected in February to its smallest in 14 months thanks to higher prices for resource exports, a likely boost to profits and incomes that also gave the local dollar a lift. Wednesday's figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed exports climbed 3.3 percent overall to a seasonally adjusted A$25.64 billion, the highest total in eight months. Earnings from farm goods, coal, metals and iron ore all increase in the month thanks in part to rising prices. Picture taken March 4, 2013. REUTERS/David Gray (AUSTRALIA - Tags: BUSINESS) - RTXY7G5

The past five years of stagnant global trade growth are not temporary, but instead reflect persistent forces that are likely to drive a continued stagnation in global trade over the long run. Image: REUTERS/David Gray

Ian Tomb

Emerging Markets Economist, Goldman Sachs

Kamakshya Trivedi

Chief Emerging Markets Macro Strategist, Goldman Sachs

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Trade in specific goods accelerated in the 2000s

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