Demography, unemployment, and automation: Challenges in creating jobs until 2030

Dec 18, 2018

Remotely controlled robots OriHime-D, developed by Ory Lab Inc. to promote employment of disabled people, serve customers at a cafe in Tokyo, Japan November 26, 2018. REUTERS/Issei Kato - RC142F1E7620

Image: REUTERS/Issei Kato

David E. Bloom

Clarence James Gamble Professor of Economics and Demography, Harvard School of Public Health

Mathew McKenna

Second-year student, , Georgetown University Law Center

Klaus Prettner

Professor, Vienna University of Economics and Business

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Notes: 1) Values represent net effects from beginning to end of the period and do not reflect movement in the intervening years. 2) Global estimates represent approximately 99.4 percent of the global population due to the lack of labour force participation rates for 10 countries: Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Curacao, Federated States of Micronesia, Grenada, Kiribati, Mayotte, Seychelles, South Sudan, and State of Palestine. 3) Regions are defined as in the Human Development Report 2014 (UNDP 2014). The regions included here represent approximately 82 percent of the global population in 2010. In 1990–2010, however, they represented 93 percent of global population growth. In 2010–2030, they will represent 104 percent of population growth, indicating declining working-age populations in countries not belonging to any of these regions. A total of 54 countries do not belong to any of these regions, with the 10 largest (ranked by working-age population in 2010) being the United States, the Russian Federation, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, the Republic of Korea, Spain, and Poland. Image: Authors’ work derived from United Nations (2015b) and ILO (2013)

Notes: 1) Values represent net effects from beginning to end of period and do not reflect movement in the intervening years. 2) Population numbers were obtained from the UN’s World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision (United Nations 2015b) and thus refer to 1 July for each year indicated. Numbers are based on the medium-fertility variant. Note that population growth is fairly sensitive to the variant used. 3) Global estimates represent approximately 99.4 percent of the global population due to the lack of labour force participation rates for 10 countries: Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Curacao, Federated States of Micronesia, Grenada, Kiribati, Mayotte, Seychelles, South Sudan, and State of Palestine. 4) Regions are defined as in the Human Development Report 2014 (UNDP 2014). The regions included here represented approximately 82 percent of the global population in 2010. In 1990–2010, however, they represented 93 percent of global population growth. In 2010–2030, they will represent 104 percent of population growth, indicating declining working-age populations in countries not belonging to any of these regions. A total of 54 countries do not belong to any of these regions, with the 10 largest (ranked by working-age population in 2010) being the United States, the Russian Federation, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, the Republic of Korea, Spain, and Poland. Image: Authors’ work derived from United Nations (2015b) and ILO (2013)

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Notes: 1) Values represent net effects from beginning to end of period and do not reflect movement in the intervening years. 2) Population numbers are obtained from the UN’s World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision (United Nations 2015b) and thus refer to 1 July for each year indicated. Numbers are based on the medium-fertility variant. Note that population growth is fairly sensitive to the variant used. 3) Global estimates represent approximately 99.4 percent of global population due to lack of labour force participation rates for 10 countries: Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Curacao, Federated States of Micronesia, Grenada, Kiribati, Mayotte, Seychelles, South Sudan, and State of Palestine. 4) Countries are classified into human development groups based on UNDP’s Human Development Index 2013. 5) Countries are classified into country income groups based on the World Bank’s country income classifications, as set on 1 July 2014. Image: Authors’ work derived from United Nations (2015b) and ILO (2013).

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