Trade uncertainty has risen at an alarming rate. This is why

Sep 18, 2019

Tariff threats, hikes, and retaliations have become a major source of economic uncertainty. Image: REUTERS/Johannes Eisele

Scott Baker

Associate Professor of Finance Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University

Nicholas Bloom

Professor of Economics , Stanford University

Steven Davis

William H. Abbott Distinguished Service Professor of International Business and Economics, University of Chicago Booth School of Business; Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution

Our Impact

The Big Picture

Explore and monitor how Trade and Investment is affecting economies, industries and global issues

Crowdsource Innovation

Get involved with our crowdsourced digital platform to deliver impact at scale

Stay up to date:

Trade and Investment

Monthly data normalised to 100 from 1985 to 2009. Image: Baker et al. (2016), as updated at www.policyuncertainty.com

Using data for 21 countries that account for 80% of global GDP at current prices. Normalised to 100 from 1997 to 2015. Image: Baker et al. (2016), Davis (2016) and PolicyUncertainty.com

Monthly data normalised to 100 from 1985 to 2009. Image: Baker et al. (2016), as updated at www.policyuncertainty.com

Have you read?

Computed from automated readings of newspaper articles about Equity Market Volatility and (Equity Market Volatility + Trade Policy) in 11 major U.S. newspapers. Image: Baker et al. (2019a).

Don't miss any update on this topic

Create a free account and access your personalized content collection with our latest publications and analyses.

License and Republishing

World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License, and in accordance with our Terms of Use.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

The Agenda Weekly

A weekly update of the most important issues driving the global agenda

Subscribe today

You can unsubscribe at any time using the link in our emails. For more details, review our privacy policy.