Trade uncertainty has risen at an alarming rate. This is why

Sep 18, 2019

An image shows the German share price index DAX at the German stock exchange in Frankfurt April 16, 2009. REUTERS/Johannes Eisele (GERMANY BUSINESS) - BM2E54G18RZ01

Tariff threats, hikes, and retaliations have become a major source of economic uncertainty. Image: REUTERS/Johannes Eisele

Scott Baker

Associate Professor of Finance Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University

Nicholas Bloom

Professor of Economics , Stanford University

Steven Davis

William H. Abbott Distinguished Service Professor of International Business and Economics, University of Chicago Booth School of Business; Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution

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Monthly data normalised to 100 from 1985 to 2009. Image: Baker et al. (2016), as updated at www.policyuncertainty.com

Using data for 21 countries that account for 80% of global GDP at current prices. Normalised to 100 from 1997 to 2015. Image: Baker et al. (2016), Davis (2016) and PolicyUncertainty.com

Monthly data normalised to 100 from 1985 to 2009. Image: Baker et al. (2016), as updated at www.policyuncertainty.com

Have you read?

Computed from automated readings of newspaper articles about Equity Market Volatility and (Equity Market Volatility + Trade Policy) in 11 major U.S. newspapers. Image: Baker et al. (2019a).

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