E-Commerce revenue to shrink for the first time ever

Aug 22, 2022

With the collaboration of Statista.

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Supply chain issues and inflation have hit the sector. Image: Unsplash/rupixen.com

Martin Armstrong

Data Journalist, Statista

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E-commerce revenues are forecast to shrink for the first time ever, according to the latest forecast from Statista Digital Market Outlook.
Supply chain issues are the largest single weakening factor, with inflation also playing a significant part in the downward revision.
The widely expected global recession and subsequent increases in unemployment leave the e-commerce sector with significant hurdles to overcome.

In what would be the first time ever, e-commerce revenues are forecast to shrink y-o-y in 2022. That's according to the latest forecast from the Statista Digital Market Outlook.

As covered in the newly released second chapter of Statista's Digital Economy Compass, 'From frenzy to fall: is eCommerce back to normal?': "This always has to be seen in perspective, and many industry experts contest the comparison of today's growth figures with pre-Covid-19 data. Nevertheless, the market is now compelled to tackle substantial questions about how to go forward. Even if there is a lot of headwind at the moment, we still believe online shares will eventually increase and revenue growth will get back on track."

Still, the expected negative growth is to be taken in the context of the previous forecast for 2022, which projected $481 billion more revenue by the end of the year. Supply chain issues is the largest single weakening factor, with inflation also playing a significant part in the downwards revision. The widely expected global recession and subsequent increases in unemployment leave the e-commerce sector significant hurdles to overcome before it can finally get back on track.

Bar chart showing E-Commerce revenue to shrink for the first time.

Supply chain issues is the largest single weakening factor. Image: Statista.

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What is the World Economic Forum doing about digital trade?

The Fourth Industrial Revolution – driven by rapid technological change and digitalization – has already had a profound impact on global trade, economic growth and social progress. Cross-border e-commerce has generated trillions of dollars in economic activity continues to accelerate and the ability of data to move across borders underpins new business models, boosting global GDP by 10% in the last decade alone.

The application of emerging technologies in trade looks to increase efficiency and inclusivity in global trade by enabling more small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to repeat its benefits and by closing the economic gap between developed and developing countries.

However, digital trade barriers including outdated regulations and fragmented governance of emerging technologies could potentially hamper these gains. We are leading the charge to apply 4IR technologies to make international trade more inclusive and efficient, ranging from enabling e-commerce and digital payments to designing norms and trade policies around emerging technologies (‘TradeTech’).

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