Geo-Economics and Politics

What you need to know about the global economy this week

economy stories UK inflation falls US inflations rises Economic warnings Germany Bank of England

Top economy stories: UK inflation falls; US inflations rises unexpectedly; Economic warnings for Germany. Image: REUTERS/Maja Smiejkowska/File Photo

Joe Myers
Writer, Forum Agenda
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  • This weekly round-up brings you the latest stories from the world of economics and finance.
  • Top economy stories: UK inflation falls; US inflations rises unexpectedly; Economic warnings for Germany.

Economy stories from around the globe

Japan's wholesale prices rose 9.0% in August from the previous year, matching the annual pace of growth in July. The corporate good price index measures the price companies charge each other for their goods and services.

US household wealth fell by a record $6.1 trillion in the second quarter to its lowest in year, as a bear market in stocks far outweighed further gains in real estate values, a Federal Reserve report showed on 9 September.

Germany's economy will contract next year as a dramatic rise in energy costs due to the war in Ukraine extinguishes the chances of recovery after pandemic-related lockdowns, the Ifo Institute of Economic Research said on 12 September. The announcement reverses a June forecast for 3.7% growth in 2023.

The German economy ministry followed with a warning on 13 September that the country's outlook has "dramatically worsened" and the economy could stagnate or contract in the second half of the year.

The Canadian economy lost a net 39,700 jobs in August, a sign that higher interest rates might be starting to cool the economy.

Greek inflation slowed slightly in August, down to 11.4% from 11.6% in July, but remains close to its highest level in nearly three decades.

China's consumer prices rose at a slower-than-expected pace in August while the rate of producer inflation hit an 18-month low.

JP Morgan analysts have said that the global economy could avoid a recession as the data suggests a possible soft landing, and added that they believe the Federal Reserve could have "over-reacted".

A key measure of how many Americans lived in poverty in 2021 fell to a record low thanks in large part to federal government assistance measures aimed at supporting households through the COVID-19 pandemic, the Census Bureau said on 13 September.

Japan ran its biggest single-month trade deficit on record in August as imports surged on high energy costs and a slump in the yen.

Argentina's monthly inflation hit 80% year-on-year in August, according to a government agency.

Have you read?

UK inflation lower than anticipated but US rises unexpectedly

Lower fuel prices caused an unexpected fall in British consumer price inflation (CPI) last month, according to official figures released on 14 September. The CPI had previously hit a 40-year high.

The annual rate of consumer price inflation fell to 9.9% in August from 10.1% in July, below economists' expectations in a Reuters poll for it to rise further to a new high of 10.2%.

Prices for vehicle fuels and lubricants dropped by 6.8% in August, their largest monthly fall since April 2020.

Britain is still battling the highest inflation among major advanced economies, and financial markets expect the Bank of England to raise rates further next week, after postponing this week's rate decision following Queen Elizabeth's death.

However, US consumer prices rose in August and underlying inflation accelerated amid rising costs for rents and healthcare - going against forecasts from a Reuters' poll.

The consumer price index edged up 0.1% last month after being unchanged in July. Though consumers got some relief from a 10.6% decline in gasoline prices, they had to dig deeper to pay for food, rent, healthcare, electricity and natural gas.

"The Fed is all but sure to hike rates aggressively next week, likely by 75 basis points, while pushing back strongly against talk of a near-term pause in the tightening cycle," said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.

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Some economics research to read this week

A new NBER working paper explores the asset classes that are best protected against inflation.

A VoxEU column looks at UK price and wage inflation, productivity, and unemployment over a 160-year period.

The IMF looks at the role of food and energy in driving global inflation.

Food energy prices global inflation surge economy
Food and energy prices continue to drive the global inflation surge. Image: IMF
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Related topics:
Geo-Economics and PoliticsFinancial and Monetary SystemsEconomic Growth
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