Economic Progress

World Economic Outlook shows economies facing high uncertainty

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Financial sector stress is a potential downside risk for the world economy. Image: Unsplash/actionvance

Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi
Economist, IMF
Chiara Maggi
Economist, IMF
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Economic Progress

  • The latest World Economic Outlook from the IMF forecasts that global growth will slow to 2.8% this year, from 3.4% in 2022.
  • But there are notable downside risks, and further financial sector stress could cut growth to 2.5%.
  • The weak outlook reflects tight policy stances needed to bring down inflation, the fallout from the recent deterioration in financial conditions, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and growing geoeconomic fragmentation.

The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook forecasts that growth will slow from 3.4 percent last year to 2.8 percent this year. Growth is then expected to accelerate to 3 percent next year.

Risks to the outlook are heavily skewed to the downside, with heightened chances of a hard landing. In a plausible alternative scenario with further financial sector stress, global growth would decelerate to about 2.5 percent in 2023.

Looking further ahead, growth is expected to remain around 3 percent over the next five years. This baseline forecast of 3 percent five years ahead for 2028 makes it the lowest medium-term growth projection since 1990, and well below the average of 3.8 percent from the past two decades.

The anemic outlook reflects the tight policy stances needed to bring down inflation, the fallout from the recent deterioration in financial conditions, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and growing geoeconomic fragmentation.

The Chart of the Week brings together all gross domestic product forecasts in our latest assessment. Add any economy or grouping from the dataset to the chart. Move the slider for historical data or future estimates.

Real GDP growth
The IMF forecasts that growth will slow to 2.8% this year. Image: IMF
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Economic ProgressFinancial and Monetary Systems
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Joe Myers

April 12, 2024

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