This monthly round-up brings you a selection of the latest news and updates on global trade.
Top international trade stories: Positive trade outlook from the WTO; Biodiversity exports grow, but benefits remain uneven; UK reconsidering trade relationship with the EU.
1. AI investments boost merchandise trade outlook
Global trade has proved more resilient than expected this year, even as conflict and geopolitical uncertainty continue to reshape supply chains.
In its October update to its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, the World Trade Organization has raised its forecast for merchandise-trade growth in 2026 to 3.9%, up from 1.9% in March. The update follows a stronger-than-expected first half of 2026, when supply chains adapted to disruption in energy, fertilizer and transport markets better than anticipated.
Trade flows from the Middle East were rerouted through alternative corridors, while other suppliers stepped in to offset crude oil and liquefied natural gas transport disruptions, resulting in global declines of only 6% and 1%, respectively. Fertilizer markets also adjusted, with nitrogenous fertilizers dropping only 2.8% below recent averages and phosphatic fertilizers even seeing a 2.2% rise in global imports. Global container throughput also rose by 3.9% year-on-year as of July 2026, showing its resilience to geopolitical disruption.
Another major factor in the uptick in trade was continued strong investment in AI-related infrastructure, which boosted trade in AI-enabling goods. Trade in items such as semiconductors and servers increased by 67% year on year, accounting for 47% of global merchandise-trade growth in the first half of 2026, according to the WTO. The Financial Times reports that China in particular benefitted from the AI boom, with September exports rising 36.3% in dollar terms compared to a year earlier.
But the gains are uneven. The WTO cut its forecast for commercial-services trade growth in 2026 to 3.3%, from 4.8%, as disruption to shipping routes, higher freight costs and weaker travel demand weigh on transport and tourism. Regionally, trade dynamics are shifting. Asia is expected to post the fastest merchandise-export growth this year with a 9.9% rise, helping to offset projected adjustments in Middle Eastern exports (-17.2%) as global supply chains continue to reroute.
The WTO is also upbeat about 2027, when it sees merchandise trade volumes increasing by 4.1% and service trade volumes rising by 6.4%.
Meanwhile, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reported that seasonally adjusted world export volumes overall had risen by 0.3% in the second quarter of 2026, down from 1.2% in the previous quarter.
2. Biodiversity wins as multilateral talks on plastics resume
While the headlines have focused on geopolitics, the environment remains an important factor in global trade.
In 2024, biodiversity-based exports were worth nearly $3.8 trillion, accounting for 17.3% of global merchandise trade in 2024, according to UNCTAD. However, developing economies captured only around 35% of that value. The findings underline the need for countries rich in biological resources to move beyond exporting raw materials and secure a greater share of higher-value activities.
Producers in developing countries can struggle with tariffs, complex regulations, costs related to sustainability standards and limited access to finance, making it harder for them to compete. UNCTAD argues that aligning trade, industrial and biodiversity policies could help countries capture more value while strengthening conservation and sustainable development.
A case in point is that import tariffs on alternatives made from natural materials are often higher than those on traditional plastic products.
Renewed discussions about plastics within the WTO may help address some of these imbalances and reduce plastics pollution. The Dialogue on Plastics Pollution and Environmentally Sustainable Plastics Trade brings together 83 co-sponsors representing almost 90% of global plastics trade.
The early October talks covered circular product and packaging design, reuse and refill systems, waste-management technology, single-use plastics and trade-related policy measures such as deposit returns and fiscal instruments. Participants also considered challenges facing small businesses and developing economies, highlighting the need for cooperation to help scale solutions to environmental challenges.
3. News in brief: Trade stories from around the world
At the recent US-China summit in Washington, the trade counterparts agreed to reduce reciprocal tariffs on $60 billion of each other’s imports. The deal mainly covers non-sensitive items, avoiding strategically vital sectors such as semiconductors, electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries. Meanwhile, a previous tariff truce set to expire in November was officially extended to January.
Negotiations for a bilateral trade deal between the US and India are advancing, with India reporting that the first phase is in the final stages of drafting. The two countries have been establishing a framework to lower a 50% tariff on Indian export goods imposed last year. However, according to Reuters, New Delhi has emphasized that final approval hinges on securing preferential market access to boost its global competitiveness.
The UK could be given access to a new EU "Made in Europe" public procurement scheme for carmakers, provided London aligns its trade protection measures – specifically tariffs on Chinese EV imports – with the bloc. UK trade minister Anas Sarwar has signalled readiness to “work in lockstep” with the EU to strengthen international trade ties while ensuring export markets remain robust.
The negotiations come as the UK considers closer EU trade alignment, and polls show significant support for rejoining the bloc in some capacity a decade after the Brexit vote. This follows Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s statement that Brexit has done more harm than good and that he received a “clear answer” that Russia interfered in the 2016 referendum.
The EU and Canada have concluded negotiations on a Digital Trade Agreement (DTA). The agreement aims to reduce barriers to digital trade, facilitate trusted cross-border data flows and provide businesses with greater legal certainty. It also aims to strengthen consumer protections by addressing unsolicited and fraudulent commercial communications.
4. More on trade on Forum Stories
Could ‘frenemies’ be the future of global trade? At the WEF Annual Meeting of Future Global Leaders in Dubai, experts said countries will likely keep trading with countries whose political views they oppose to reduce disruption while diversifying routes, suppliers and partnerships.
The important location of the Panama Canal is both an advantage and a source of exposure for the country as the conditions surrounding global trade become less predictable. Geopolitical tensions, policy shifts and regulatory complexity are changing how companies think about sourcing, manufacturing and market access. For Panama, these shifts make the continued strengthening of its Canal, ports, logistics zones and industrial clusters even more central.
Supply-chain resilience is now a financial concern. Tariffs, sanctions, conflict and resource constraints reveal the risks of concentrated sourcing, prompting lenders and investors to assess supplier dependence, transport chokepoints and access to critical inputs. Financing diversified networks, resilient infrastructure and secure resources can protect long-term business value and support stable economies, argue Derek Baraldi, Director, Sustainable Finance at the World Economic Forum, and Anastasiia Rudkovska.
As countries seek more secure access to the critical materials underpinning industrial capacity, clean technologies and national security, platinum group metals are gaining strategic importance. This article explores how unlocking this potential relies heavily on collaborative market development to support emerging digital and green growth drivers.
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