A carbon moon-shot: Fossil fuels could peak as early as 2025, experts explain

Oct 18, 2021

The Amercentrale is one of the electricity producing plants in the Netherlands.

Demand for fossil fuels will peak by 2025 if countries meet their climate pledges. Image: Unsplash/Wim van't Einde

Simon Evans

Policy Editor, Carbon Brief

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Number of mentions of each IEA scenario in World Energy Outlooks since 2017, per 100 pages of text. Image: Carbon Brief analysis of the last five IEA outlooks.

Global energy supply from coal, oil and gas, exajoules, 1965-2050. Image: IEA World Energy Outlook 2021

Global energy-related emissions 2000-2050 under the scenarios set out in the WEO 2021 and the pre-Paris baseline, billions of tonnes. Image: Fatih Birol / IEA.

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Measures for closing the ambition gap between countries’ climate pledges (APS) and a 1.5C pathway (NZE). Image: IEA World Energy Outlook 2021.

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Selected energy-related infrastructure (coloured points) and water stress levels in 2020 (shading). Image: IEA World Energy Outlook 2021.

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