Asia Takes the Lead
As ASEAN celebrates its 50th anniversary, countries in the bloc are looking to play an increasingly important role in the global economy. But as prospects for global trade darken, how will Asia’s economic journey move continue? And will China act as a uniting force in the region, or otherwise?
The end of the TPP agreement comes as a disappointment for the region. As Nouriel Roubini, Professor at Stern School of Business, New York University, explains, the Obama administration recognised the importance of the rise of Asia and China, with the goal of opening up Asia first and then China.
Dean Li Daokui from Tsinghua University in Beijing, suggests that the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal - or TPP - was viewed by some as way for the US to bypass China. As China is the biggest economy in Asia, you cannot have a trade agreement that does not involve China, he insists.
To the other panelists from the region the end of TPP is a blow but it has not affected their belief in globalization.
The Malaysian Trade and Industry Minister, Mustapa Mohamed, highlights that TPP was expected to set new standards and, above all, create jobs for Malaysia and the region. While Donald Trump has focused on the jobs TPP would take away from the US, the agreement would have increased America’s trade in Asia, so it would have been a win-win for both sides, he explains.
The challenge now is finding new growth drivers to replace the impact that TPP would have had. Mustapa Mohamed sees the future in greater regional cooperation. For example, ASEAN has grown by six percent year on year. “ASEAN is a powerful growth story,” he says, stressing that it can play a bigger role in future, alongside India and China.
Anthony Fernandes hopes that some of the “negativity coming out of America” will stimulate the ASEAN region to reinforce its own ecosystem and trade networks.
The ongoing RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) negotiations are part of this, aiming to create a 16-country free trade zone including the ASEAN member states, Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea.
However, for ASEAN to thrive, issues such as the lack of venture capital and regulation need to be tackled, according to Anthony Fernandes, CEO of AirAsia: “Without regulation, AirAsia would be twice the size,” he says. He appeals to ASEAN leaders to work fast in order to create and environment for young entrepreneur to be able access and make the most out of the Asian marketplace.
There is agreement that to give the continent a chance to succeed, Asia needs to be enabled to lead international organisations such as the IMF and the World Bank.
In spite of greater regional integration, the relationship with the US and China, and between the US and China will continue to be critical for growth in ASEAN and the rest of the Asia-Pacific region. The question of a potential trade war is raised.
In spite of the incoming US administration receiving a lot of criticism, Li Daokui gives credit to Donald Trump for two things that he believes will be critical. The first is that he has recognised that the US needs to focus on domestic issues as a priority.The second is that Donald Trump has chosen very experienced people for his cabinet, which makes a trade war unlikely.
Moving to the role of China as a new global leader, the question is what kind of leadership to expect from China.
Kishore Mahbubani, Dean of the National University of Singapore’s public policy faculty, suggests that Chinese leadership is very different from American leadership in that it takes a more measured approach to decision-making, for example.
“Of course they want to do things in quite a Chinese style, but sometimes global developments happen very fast,” he adds.
Anthony Fernandes adds that leadership is not just about economics, pointing to the fact that the world is becoming less polar and more equal, with new growth engines developing across Africa but also in countries such as Pakistan.