Supply Chains and Transportation

The number of cars worldwide is set to double by 2040

Drivers queue during evening rush hour on the M4 motorway, in west London, July 20, 2004. Britain's Transport Secretary Alistair Darling unveiled new government transport plans for the next 10 years on Tuesday, announcing car tax and fuel duty could be scrapped and replaced with a system of road charging. NO RIGHTS CLEARANCES OR PERMISSIONS ARE REQUIRED FOR THIS IMAGE

This research looks at the development growth of transport, including automotive and aviation. Image: REUTERS/Toby Melville TM/MD

Matthew Nitch Smith
Finance Writer, Business Insider
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Supply Chain and Transport

The global number of cars on the road and kilometers flown in planes will nearly double by 2040, according to a report released on Monday by research house Bernstein.

Cars are projected to reach the two billion mark by 2040, while air travel kilometers are set to hit 20 trillion in the same period.

Bernstein said it expects most of this transport growth to happen in emerging markets like China and India, as global populations are set to rise by another two billion over the next 25 years to 9.2 billion.

Growing GDP in those regions will increase demand for items once seen as luxuries, including automobiles and flights.

The fastest growth will be in air travel, according to the report, which is particularly sensitive to per capita GDP growth. As Business Insider previously reported, this will support increased use of oil in emerging markets over the next two decades, countering the drop in demand from developed economies.

Here's a visual of projected global transport growth over the next 25 years:

The predicted global growth in transport over the next 25 years.
Image: Business Insider

While this growth looks large, the report notes that demand in the US and Europe will fall as both regions reached peak oil over ten years ago in 2005.

"Given the peak in travel speeds, high penetration of transport, and increasingly services-led nature of economic growth in the West, demand from this area will decline from here," it added.

"Although China (gasoline demand) in particular will remain the most important market over the next decade, India (diesel demand) is set to become the most important market over the next 25 years."

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Supply Chains and TransportationEconomic Growth
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