2017’s economic challenges in 5 charts
Image: REUTERS/Phil Noble - RTX2UTIS
Get involved with our crowdsourced digital platform to deliver impact at scale
Stay up to date:
Economic Progress
Watch the Global Economic Outlook session here.
1. Faster global growth?
The International Monetary Fund expects faster global growth this year - 3.4% against 2016's 3.1%.
It’s forecasting a further rise to 3.6% by 2018. But the Fund is warning that there are a large number of risks that could derail that recovery.
2. Big changes to US tax and spending policy?
One of the biggest uncertainties in the IMF's forecast is over US fiscal policy.
President-elect Trump has talked of major tax cuts.
And with talk of a trillion dollars in infrastructure spending, some economists think US growth could accelerate much more sharply.
3. Can China’s rebalancing continue?
Over recent years, Chinese growth has switched from relying on exports to domestic consumption.
Supporting this switch has been very high growth in credit (20% per annum.) Some view this as benign - an effective recycling of high Chinese savings. Others, including the IMF, worry it may be unsustainable.
4. How will Europe weather political storms?
In 2016, the EU economy probably grew by 1.8%. Much higher than the average from 2008-2015 but still too weak to make much of a dent in unemployment.
The EU expects little change this year. And with elections in France, Germany, the Netherlands and, possibly, Italy, there’s a chance any political turbulence might set growth back again.
5. Will battles over trade undermine growth?
After very weak growth in 2016, international trade is set to expand more quickly. But it is unlikely to meet the long-term average of 5% a year.
And with the new US administration voicing concerns about unfair trade, the IMF sees restrictions on global trade as one of the biggest risks.
Don't miss any update on this topic
Create a free account and access your personalized content collection with our latest publications and analyses.
License and Republishing
World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License, and in accordance with our Terms of Use.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.
Related topics:
The Agenda Weekly
A weekly update of the most important issues driving the global agenda
You can unsubscribe at any time using the link in our emails. For more details, review our privacy policy.
More on Economic ProgressSee all
Joe Myers
April 12, 2024
Joe Myers
April 5, 2024
Pooja Chhabria
March 28, 2024
Kate Whiting
March 28, 2024
Joe Myers
March 28, 2024
Andrea Willige
March 27, 2024