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The macroeconomic implications of a global trade war

Trade tensions are high. Image: REUTERS/Mike Blake

Urszula Szczerbowicz

Research Economist, , Banque de France

Daniele Siena

Research Economist, , Banque de France

Caroline Jardet

Senior Economist, Banque de France

Antoine Berthou

Economist, Banque de France; and Associate Researcher,, CEPII

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Image: Authors’ calculation.
 Note: Effects of corresponding shocks obtained from separate GIMF simulations. A ‘low’ effect corresponds to a shock of one standard deviation on the financing cost and on uncertainty affecting investment. A ‘high’ effect corresponds to shocks equivalent to two standard deviations. The direct trade effect is unchanged.
Note: Effects of corresponding shocks obtained from separate GIMF simulations. A ‘low’ effect corresponds to a shock of one standard deviation on the financing cost and on uncertainty affecting investment. A ‘high’ effect corresponds to shocks equivalent to two standard deviations. The direct trade effect is unchanged. Image: Authors’ calculation.

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