Modelling the shape of the mental health crisis after COVID

Dec 18, 2020

Jo-An Occhipinti

Head, Systems Modeling, Simulation, & Data Science, University of Sydney

Cameron Fox

Project Lead, Shaping the Future of Health and Healthcare, World Economic Forum

Ian Hickie

Co-Director, Health and Policy, Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney

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Projected impacts of COVID-19 and recession on the prevalence of psychological distress, proportion of youth not in employment, education, or training, mental health-related emergency department presentations, and suicide deaths.

Impact of best combination of action to flatten the mental health curve

Testing alternative scenarios for employment program duration. Ceasing programs too early will cost lives; keeping them in place too long offers diminishing returns.

Implementing awareness programs without increasing mental health services capacity floods the system, increasing wait times, and increasing the proportion of those in crisis.

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