Oliver Cann, Associate Director, Media, Tel.: +41 (0)22 869 1406; E-mail: oliver.cann@weforum.org
Geneva, Switzerland, 10 April 2014 – Key priorities for Ukraine’s post-crisis roadmap and long-term economic development are explored in Scenarios for Ukraine: Reforming institutions, strengthening the economy after the crisis, a World Economic Forum report launched today.
Amidst the severe geopolitical tensions that followed the political changes in the country, Scenarios for Ukraine is designed to provide insight into the different policy paths available to the country’s new leadership, beyond short-term interests and political positions.
“At this moment of crisis, decision-makers understandably focus on the short-term security situation, but the foundations for Ukraine’s post-crisis development are laid today,” said Espen Barth Eide, Managing Director of the World Economic Forum.
The report finds improvement of Ukraine’s public institutions to be essential for the country’s reform-led renewal, reversing its past trajectory of poor governance, high levels of corruption and dependence on a few base commodities to drive economic growth.
“Sustained economic growth fostered by strong and reliable institutions is the best guarantee for Ukraine’s future as a country at the crossroads of Europe and Eurasia,” said Philipp Rösler, Managing Director of the World Economic Forum.
In an attempt to contextualize the priorities and choices before Ukrainian decision-makers for the post-crisis period, the report highlights three alternative scenarios that illustrate different characteristics of the way forward for Ukraine:
Unlocking the virtuous circle sketches out a path of fundamental transformation in which stakeholders commit to a new social contract based on transparency and more efficient government expenditure. This is the scenario in which concerted action of all actors in society creates an environment that allows the country to capitalize on its large domestic market, resource endowments and strong human assets.
At the same time, there is a risk of sustained internal divisions and reinstatement of old structures. Lost in stagnation describes a scenario of collapse, where Ukrainian leaders fail to find common ground while external conditions worsen, leaving the country stuck in a rapidly escalating downward spiral.
Finally, Back to the future is a scenario of selective change, where deteriorating external conditions create a sense of urgency to reform strategic sectors and catalyse new trade and investment perspectives but stop short of transformative change.
The analysis in this report is based on a wide stakeholder consultation involving more than 300 decision-makers, business and civil society leaders as well as leading experts from Ukraine and beyond who convened over the past 12 months at several workshops, a high-level strategic dialogue in Kyiv in November 2013, and at the Meeting 2014 in Davos-Klosters. As presidential elections in Ukraine are fast approaching, the World Economic Forum is considering a high-level discussion in Kyiv right after the poll (date to be confirmed) to review implications of Scenarios with respect to the economic and social reforms agenda.
Notes to Editors