Fon Mathuros, Head of Media, Public Engagement Tel.: +41 (0)79 201 0211, e-mail fma@weforum.org
Tianjin, People’s Republic of China, 10 September 2014 – Greater cross-border collaboration in terms of economic policy-making could bring significant benefits to economies in the South Caucasus and Central Asia region as they aim to build resilience and take advantage of growth opportunities in the changing global economy, according to the findings of a new report, Scenarios for the South Caucasus and Central Asia, launched today.
According to the report, trends such as the emergence of mega-regional trade agreements, the rise in South-South trade and increasing environmental awareness all pose critical questions to the region’s decision-makers. However, these same shifting dynamics also present the region with an opportunity to create a new identity and play an enhanced role in the global economy.
Taking advantage of these opportunities, however, will require the region’s leaders to engage in a much higher level of collaboration to overcome persisting roadblocks to sustainable prosperity. These roadblocks include numerous economic borders, which are among the highest in the world, as well as political differences.
Collaboration could best help the region achieve the goals of the countries concerned by focusing on four key collective economic aims, the report finds. These are:
“Whether or not the region can play a significant role in the world’s economy in the 21st century depends on its ability to tap into its collective, rather than fragmented, potential. No part of the region can be stronger than its weakest link,” said Kristel Van der Elst, Senior Director and Head of Strategic Foresight at the World Economic Forum.
To help stakeholders formulate long-term strategies to pursue these four objectives, the report draws on consultations with over 500 stakeholders to develop three distinct scenarios regarding the context for the region’s future path in 2035:
“Split Up” depicts a world in which the global economy is dominated by powerful trading blocs centred on the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans in addition to the Eurasian Union. This scenario invites the region to avoid the risk of being left out in the cold in this world of closed regional blocs by proposing that countries make the most of their collective potential through a regional effort of their own. Far from suggesting the creation of yet another closed-off regional grouping, however, the scenario suggests that the region could benefit most by adopting an open approach to regionalism, serving as a bridge to recreate global connections in a deeply divided world.
“Southern Gateway” envisages a global economy that is digital, knowledge-based and dominated by South-South trade in goods and – especially – services, and in which Iran’s opening has unleashed myriad new perspectives for the region’s trade with the Middle East and, further on, sub-Saharan Africa. This scenario invites reflection about the extent to which the region could look beyond its traditional Chinese, Russian and European economic partners to find new connections with today’s emerging markets. It also suggests that not only could the South Caucasus and Central Asia benefit from its strategic location at the crossroads of these dynamic economies, but the increasingly immaterial nature of the global economy could also help it overcome its landlocked status by tapping into soft supply chains.
“Climate Pressure” paints a picture in which climate change is causing havoc in the global economy, with growing demands for environmentally responsible growth. This scenario raises questions about the potential resilience of the region’s oil and gas resources to climate-related disasters and a global move towards cleaner production and renewable energy. It hints at the benefits that improved institutional governance and early diversification into green economy initiatives could sow for a region whose prosperity its vast that inevitably limited energy resources can help kick-start but perhaps not single-handedly sustain.
“By identifying areas of common ground where all economies in the South Caucasus and Central Asia can work towards shared goals, we hope that leaders will be better able to make the decisions needed to unlock the region’s economic value,” said Andrew Chakhoyan, Associate Director in the Forum’s Eurasia team.
Notes to Editors:
Follow the Annual Meeting of the New Champions 2014 at http://wef.ch/amnc14
Watch the video here: http://wef.ch/scca
View Annual Meeting of the New Champions 2013 at http://wef.ch/amnc13
Download the Media Mobile/iPad App for the Annual Meeting of the New Champions 2014
Follow the Forum in Chinese on Sina Weibo at http://t.sina.com.cn/davos and QQ Weibo at http://t.qq.com/davos
Watch sessions on demand on YouTube at http://wef.ch/youtube
View the best Forum Flickr photos at http://wef.ch/pix
View photos from the event at http://wef.ch/amnc14pix
Watch live webcasts of sessions at http://wef.ch/live
Become a fan of the Forum on Facebook at http://wef.ch/facebook
Follow the Forum on Google+ at http://wef.ch/gplus
Follow the Forum (#WEF) on Twitter at http://wef.ch/twitter and http://wef.ch/livetweet
Read the Forum blog at http://wef.ch/blog
View upcoming Forum events at http://wef.ch/events
Subscribe to Forum news releases at http://wef.ch/news