Global Agenda Outlook 2011: An Unsettled World Straining at the Seams

by Mike Hanley, Editorial Director (mikeh101)

Global power shifts is the single most significant issue facing the world over the next 12 months, according to the world’s largest brains trust.

We asked our Network of Global Agenda Councils what trends would drive global affairs into the near future. The survey paints a picture of an unsettled world driven by significant shifts in geopolitical realities, struggling with the reality of providing quality of life for close to 6.8 billion people and rising.

Five hundred and seventy members of the Network responded to the first annual Global Agenda Outlook 2011. The top five issues they identified are:

• Global power shifts: As economic power moves from the developed world to the emerging economies, political power will inevitably follow. How this dynamic plays out will be at the crux of geopolitical events as we head further into the 21st century. “Asia and other emerging markets will outstrip the economic performance of Europe and North America, where stubborn unemployment and political gridlock will make policy reforms harder,” said one member of the Regional Council on the Future of the Middle East.
• Population growth: “Global population growth and humanity’s decision to be silent on the issue for political/cultural/religious reasons is the most important issue,” responded a member of the Global Agenda Council on Population Growth. The population of the world is exploding, with 6.8 billion people (and rising) struggling to find space on the face of the planet. The inevitable strain this trend puts on all areas of socio-political relations influences all the issues identified by our experts.
• Uncertain economic recovery: This issue is aggravated by the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the threat of a double dip and the spectre of financial collapse across Europe.
• Inequality: While global growth has continued, inequality between and within countries has widened. “How can income distribution be improved on a fair, equitable and gender-sensitive basis for more harmonic societies?” asked one Council member.
• Shortage of resources: The elephant in the room – the underlying trend that will drive much conflict and realignment of the global landscape in the near future – is access to limited resources. Shortages across commodities from water and food to iron ore and rare earth will be a key point of negotiation: “How do we decouple economic growth from resource consumption?” questioned a respondent.

Other results from the survey include the identification of “weak signals”, issues or trends only identified by a small number of respondents, but which may emerge as significant issues. These include:

• Extremism and intolerance
• State capitalism
• The emergence of non-state actors
• Lack of global leadership.

We also asked respondents which issues they felt were overestimated as drivers of global affairs. Notably, climate change, corporate social responsibility and sustainable energy were considered overestimated trends, while inequality, population growth and resource scarcity were considered significantly underestimated.

The survey was launched at the Summit on the Global Agenda be by three leading figures attending the world’s largest brainstorm over the next three days in the United Arab Emirates: John Lipsky, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Washington DC; Mari Elka Pangestu, Minister of Trade of Indonesia; and Zhang Yunling, Director, International Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).