The world must watch out for “warm” spots that can turn into “hot” spots – Oksana Myshlovska

Oksana Myshlovska is guest blogging for the Forum. She is a part of the Global Agenda Council Team and is attending the Annual Meeting in Davos.

Sessions on security topics typically do not attract a big audience at Davos, but not today. Transformative changes have been taking place in Tunisia, Cote d’Ivoire and Sudan with long-lasting regional and
international implications.

The Arab region has been stagnant for a long time, noted one of the panellists in “The Security Agenda in 2011”, one of the twelve sessions on risks in the framework of the Forum's new initiative, the Risk Response Network; now the issue of reform in all societies in the region has become urgent. The solution to the Cote d’Ivoire post-election stalemate will be a critical test for the whole African continent, where 17 elections are due in the coming year. Were Gbagbo to prevail, it would be a real setback for the electoral process, another panellist commented. Cote d’Ivoire is not like Zimbabwe or Kenya. In Kenya, weeks after the elections it was unclear who the winner was. Now, for the first time, the African continent is united in its opposition to Gbagbo. Power-sharing in Cote d’Ivoire is not an acceptable solution. Sudan is going through a historical partition, which will establish a new international precedent.

At the same time, traditional hot spots remain there. Lebanon questions again the balance between justice and stability. The military still has a big influence on politics in Pakistan. Without trade unions, political parties and women's rights, civil society cannot be strong in the country. Furthermore, the political power in Pakistan is diluted by  madrasah (religious schools) and Islamist parties. Pakistan, India and Afghanistan need to engage in a sustainable peace dialogue. The core Chinese concern about North Korea remains the avoidance of the region's destabilization that would lead to an inflow of North Korean refugees and the involvement of the USA and Japan. Iran and Sri Lanka are also places of concern.

Which country will be the next Tunisia? Societies that face situations of economic and social deprivation, profound injustice and inequality can be the next hot spots, one panellist said. There are two new unexpected factors in action: aspiration for democracy and aspiration for justice. Central Asian autocracies Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and even Kazakhstan, can be next in line. In the longer term, the penetration of crime will erode the capacity of states in Central America.

We tend to recognize the state as failed only when it is too late. Somalia, Afghanistan and Guinea Bissau are the examples in focus. We need to attend to “warm” spots before they turn into “hot” spots.
Oksana Myshlovska