COVID-19

Coronavirus: An economist’s view of the epidemiological curve

Richard Baldwin warns of grave errors, if analysts believe that COVID-19 will follow an exponential curve. Image: REUTERS/David Ryder

Richard Baldwin

Professor of International Economics, Graduate Institute, Geneva

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Figure 1a Typical seasonal flu epi curve for Canada, and CDC epi curve ‘intervals’. Image: Dena et al (2010)
Figure 1b Typical seasonal flu epi curve for Canada, and CDC epi curve ‘intervals’. Image: Dena et al (2010).
Figure 2 China’s epidemiological curve for COVID-19, 31 December 2019 – 11 March 2020. Image: Author’s elaboration of European CDC data
Figure 3 Simulation of COVID-19’s new case evolution in 2020 Image: Anderson et al. (2020)
Figure 4 Epi curve for South Korea versus the US as of 11 March 2020. Image: Author’s elaboration of European CDC data
Figure 5 Epi curve flattening saves lives by avoiding hospital overloads Image: Author’s elaboration.

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COVID-19Global HealthEconomic Progress

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