Economic Progress

As inflation accelerates in the US, so does the probability of a recession

The US is hoping to steer away from a recession, but low unemployment and high inflation may tip the balance.

The US is hoping to steer away from a recession, but low unemployment and high inflation may tip the balance. Image: Unsplash/Paul Weaver

Alex Domash
Research Fellow, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business & Government, Harvard Kennedy School
Lawrence H. Summers
President Emeritus, Harvard Kennedy School of Government
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A table showing the historical probability of a recession conditional on different levels of CPI inflation and unemployment, using data from 1955-2019
Historical probability of a recession conditional on different levels of CPI inflation and unemployment, using data from 1955-2019. Image: Voxeu
A table showing predicted probabilities of a recession occurring over the next 12 and 24 months
Predicted probabilities of a recession occurring over the next 12 and 24 months. Image: Voxeu

A table showing labour market conditions today compared to past periods
Labour market conditions today compared to past periods. Image: Voxeu
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