Geo-economics

What you need to know about the global economy this week

A view of pipelines at the gas storage facility of gas trading company VNG AG in Bad Lauchstädt, Germany, 28 July 2022. Economy stories: Rising oil and gas prices have hit Eurozone trade.

Economy stories: Rising oil and gas prices have hit Eurozone trade. Image: REUTERS/Annegret Hilse/File Photo

Joe Myers
Writer, Forum Agenda
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This article was first published on 18 August and updated on 19 August.

  • This weekly round-up brings you the latest stories from the world of economics and finance.
  • Top economy stories: China and Türkiye both cut interest rates; UK inflation hits double digits; Norway's sovereign wealth fund posts record loss; rising oil and gas prices hit Eurozone trade.

Economy stories from around the globe

Türkiye has cut interest rates, in a surprise move, despite inflation running at nearly 80% in July. Its central bank said the cut came in order to drive economic growth.

The European Union's so-called enhanced surveillance of Greece's economic developments and policy will end on 20 August, the European Commission and Greek government have announced.

Official figures in the United Kingdom show that the "real value" of wages fell at the fastest pace on record between April and June, as inflation outpaced earnings.

Venezuelan inflation slowed to 7.5% month-on-month in July, down from 11.4% in June.

Thailand's economy expanded at its fastest pace in a year in the second quarter, as eased COVID-19 restrictions boosted activity and tourism.

Japan's economy grew at an annualized 2.2% in April-June, marking the third straight quarter of expansion, government data showed.

New Zealand's central bank raised interest rates on 17 August – a seventh hike in row. And it signalled that further increases will follow.

Australian wage growth increased at its fastest rate in almost eight years in the last quarter. However, pay gains still lagged behind inflation.

Eurozone economies swung into a trade deficit in June as a result of rapidly increasing prices for imported oil and gas.

Namibia has raised its key interest rate by the biggest amount in almost two decades. It has made a 75-basis-point rise to 5.5%.

Norway's sovereign wealth fund posted its biggest loss on record for the first half of 2022. Its value fell by 14.4%, equating to $174 billion.

Over-65s in the UK are returning to work as a result of cost-of-living rises, official figures suggest. The number of employed people older than 65 rose by nearly 175,000 in April-June, hitting 1.47 million.

Sri Lanka's central bank has kept interest rates steady, with the Standing Lending Facility rate staying at 15.5% and the Standing Deposit Facility rate remaining at 14.5%.

The European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates, according to Mārtiņš Kazāks, a member of the bank's governing council.

Have you read?

China cuts interest rates

China's central bank has unexpectedly cut a key interest rate – its second such move this year. It also withdrew some cash from the banking system on Monday in an attempt to revive credit demand and boost the COVID-hit economy.

Economists and analysts believe Chinese authorities are keen to support the sluggish economy by allowing a widening policy divergence with other major economies that are raising interest rates aggressively.

The People's Bank of China is lowering the rate on 400 billion yuan ($59 billion) of one-year medium-term lending facility loans to some financial institutions by 10 basis points, to 2.75%.

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UK inflation hits double digits

British consumer price inflation jumped to 10.1% in July – the highest figure since February 1982 – rising from 9.4% on the year in June.

The Bank of England raised interest rates by half a percentage point earlier this month and has signalled that it expects inflation to peak at 13.3% in October.

But Benjamin Nabarro, an economist at US bank Citi, said that after the latest figures, he expects inflation to peak above 15% early next year. "With the Bank focused on signs of more persistent inflationary pressures, we think a hawkish reaction is now all but inevitable," he told Reuters.

Prices rose by 0.6% in July from June on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics. The annual rate of retail price inflation hit 12.3%, its highest since March 1981.

CPI inflation rate driven by housing and household services, transport and food. economy
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 10.1% in the 12 months to July 2022. Image: Office for National Statistics

Some economics research to read this week

The World Bank's latest food security update shows that domestic food price inflation remains high across the globe and is driving rising food insecurity.

How has the rise of e-commerce affected bricks-and-mortar retail? A new NBER working paper explores.

Economy stories: Impact of e-commerce fulfillment centers on local retail sales and income
The impact of e-commerce. Image: NBER

New IMF research looks at the impact of climate change mitigation policies on global current account balances.

Economy stories: Coordinated climate mitigation policies could reduce global current account balances by 0.4% of global GDP by 2027.
Coordination needed. Image: IMF
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The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

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Geo-economicsFinancial and Monetary Systems
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IMF says global economy 'remains remarkably resilient', and other economics news

Joe Myers

April 19, 2024

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