The January 2025 Chief Economists Outlook explores key trends in the global economy, including the latest outlook for growth, inflation, monetary and fiscal policy. It discusses the impact of US policy on the global economy, investigates fragmentation trends and discusses the turbulent outlook for global trade. This series of reports draws on the individual and collective perspectives of a group of leading chief economists through consultations with the World Economic Forum’s Chief Economists Community and a regular Chief Economists Survey.

The January 2025 edition of the Chief Economists Outlook reveals a global economy under considerable strain. While inflation is easing in most regions, uncertainty remains elevated and regional growth disparities shape an overall subdued outlook. US policy is expected to have a significant impact on the global economy in the years ahead, inducing a long-term shift to its trajectory. The Chief Economists Outlook also reveals intensifying pressures on the world’s economic interconnectedness with fragmentation trends expected to accelerate in goods and services trade, labour mobility, technology and data and to a lesser degree in finance. Although global trade remains resilient, tensions are expected to intensify both between major powers and more widely.