5 ways to turn the tide on non-communicable diseases

Every two seconds, someone under the age of 70 dies from a non-communicable disease (NCD). These conditions, which include cardiovascular, chronic respiratory, and renal diseases, as well as diabetes and cancer, accounted for a staggering 43 million deaths in 2021.

The crisis is set to deepen, with ageing populations, strained health systems and climate change projected to drive this figure to 52 million annual deaths by 2030.

The human suffering is unimaginable and the economic impact is undeniable, with NCDs expected to cost $47 trillion between 2010 and 2030 in lost productivity and healthcare expenditure.

Though it’s a shared challenge, NCDs are inherently inequitable. The poorest, most socioeconomically disadvantaged and vulnerable communities are most at risk, with low- and middle-income countries seeing nearly three-quarters of all NCD deaths.

In 2015, the global community adopted a target to reduce premature mortality from NCDs by one third by 2030: Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.4. However, with just five years remaining, only an estimated 19 out of 194 countries and territories are on track.

Time is running out, and decisive action is imperative. With new resolutions on NCDs passed at this year’s World Health Assembly and the Fourth UN High-Level Meeting on NCDs (HLM4) convening this month, NCDs are an international policy priority.

Detecting and treating NCDs earlier can improve patient outcomes, conserve resources, reduce pressure on health systems and lessen their environmental impact.

Improved population health yields broader societal returns, potentially adding up to 8% ($12 trillion) to global gross domestic product by 2040. Proactive national prevention and screening programmes targeted to at-risk populations, combined with coordinated care models, are critical to realizing these benefits.​

Better still, up to 80% of NCDs are preventable altogether. If every country adopted proven NCD interventions, 39 million deaths could be averted by 2030.

Progress has been made but more needs to be done. Health systems have limited resources and the increasing demand for health services is placing them under immense strain.

Tobacco and alcohol consumption may be declining but they still pose huge burdens. Air pollution is a top cause of preventable deaths worldwide and diabetes and obesity rates are increasing. Climate-related extreme weather events also contribute to higher NCD rates and disrupt access to health services.

Ultimately, investment in tackling NCDs must be viewed as an investment in society. For every dollar invested in proven NCD interventions in low- and middle-income countries, there is an estimated return of $7 in economic development and reduced healthcare costs. But NCD prevention and control remain underfunded and policy implementation has stagnated.

HLM4 comes at a pivotal moment, and efforts must be redoubled. Global commitments need to be transformed into concerted national action through effective policies prioritizing earlier action. The Partnership for Health System Sustainability and Resilience (PHSSR) has published new recommendations on how this can be achieved.

Partnership is key to providing and implementing solutions. PHSSR – a non-profit, global multi-sector collaboration – aims to strengthen health systems through academic research, policymaker engagement and international partnership.

Now, PHSSR is launching new research on NCDs in collaboration with IQVIA – the NCD Policy Roadmaps.

Using a robust academic framework, validated by a board of global experts convened by the London School of Economics, the research maps critical indicators across eight countries. It provides actionable, evidence-based policy recommendations to effectively prevent and respond to NCDs earlier.

Five takeaways include:

These five interventions have the potential to significantly reduce mortality rates, particularly as advanced diagnostics and medical imaging, combined with AI and non-invasive interventions, become more effective, affordable and widely accessible.

However, their implementation does require a concerted effort to strengthen health systems, retrain the workforce and re-invest in healthcare for better societal outcomes.

Ultimately, diverse health systems face common, systemic challenges, which are now detailed in a comprehensive online summary. Despite similarities, effective change must be tailored to specific country contexts and population needs, which is why national-level action is critical.

With its high‑income, rapidly ageing society, Japan faces a significant NCD burden. Research shows a widening gap between Japan’s life expectancy and healthy life expectancy – a pattern seen across the Asia-Pacific region, where population ageing and decline are placing stress on the healthcare workforce and financing of several of the region’s health systems.

Led by Shuhei Nomura, professor at the Global Research Institute of Keio University and a Senior Fellow at the Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation, Japan’s NCD Policy Roadmap identifies challenges and proposes policy recommendations, emphasising health equity, integration, value-based care, participatory governance and environmental sustainability.

First presented during the PHSSR Summit at EXPO 2025, these solutions have been shared with the Minister for Digital Transformation and Environment in Tokyo. The PHSSR NCD Policy Roadmap will officially launch later this year.

There is still time to achieve the 2030 ambitions.

HLM4 is a vital opportunity for governments and health sector stakeholders to renew their commitment to addressing NCD prevention and control and mobilize action locally.

Turning the tide is critical for economic growth, sustainable development and improving the lives of people globally.