Economic Progress

These are the global trends in interest rates over the past 150 years

"Low interest rates in advanced economies are a secular phenomenon driven by global forces that emerged well before the Great Recession" Image: REUTERS/Kacper Pempel/Illustration

Marco Del Negro

Vice President, Macroeconomics and Monetary Studies Function, Research and Statistics Group, New York Federal Reserve Bank

Andrea Tambalotti

Assistant Vice President and Function Head in the Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies Function,, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Marc Gionnoni

enior Vice President and Director of Research,, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Domenico Giannone

Assistant Vice President, Reserve Bank of New York


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Economic Progress

Image: Jorda, Schularick, and Taylor, Macrohistory Database
Image: Authors’ calculations
Notes: The decadal moving average is constructed by taking for each country the average ex-post short-term real rate of return over the previous five years, the current year, and the following five years, and then taking a cross-sectional average of the resulting objects. Image: Authors’ calculations.
Image: Authors’ calculations.
Image: Authors’ calculations
Notes: In both panels the dashed black line is the posterior median and the shaded grey areas are the 68% and 95% posterior coverage intervals for the world real interest rate. The dashed green line is the posterior median and the shaded green areas are the 68% and 95% posterior coverage intervals for the convenience yield (left panel) and global growth (right panel). Image: Authors’ calculations

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Related topics:

Economic ProgressInequalityFinancial and Monetary Systems


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