COVID-19

COVID-19: This model shows why masks and social distancing are so important

The importance of wearing a mask and maintaining social distancing is illustrated clearly. Image: REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch

Jeyaraj Vadiveloo

Director of the Janet and Mark L. Goldenson Center for Actuarial Research, University of Connecticut

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This simple actuarial model uses general guidelines, rather than data and assumptions about COVID-19 specifically, to simulate the effect of safety protocols. Here, a hypothetical group of 100 infected people out of a population of 1,000, with 10% observing good safety protocols, leads to hundreds of infections and deaths after three months. Image: Goldenson Center at the University of Connecticut, Author provided
This simulation shows the effect on the same hypothetical group of 100 infected people out of a group of 1,000 where 80% of people wear masks and practice social distancing, which slows the infection rate to almost zero after two months. Image: Goldenson Center for Actuarial Research, CC BY-NC-ND

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COVID-19Global HealthHealth and Healthcare

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