COVID-19: This model shows why masks and social distancing are so important

Jul 3, 2020

Visitors wearing face mask keep social distance as they attend a session at the lower house of German parliament, Bundestag, following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Berlin, Germany June 29, 2020. REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch - RC2YIH9I0HNH

The importance of wearing a mask and maintaining social distancing is illustrated clearly. Image: REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch

Jeyaraj Vadiveloo

Director of the Janet and Mark L. Goldenson Center for Actuarial Research, University of Connecticut

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COVID-19

This simple actuarial model uses general guidelines, rather than data and assumptions about COVID-19 specifically, to simulate the effect of safety protocols. Here, a hypothetical group of 100 infected people out of a population of 1,000, with 10% observing good safety protocols, leads to hundreds of infections and deaths after three months. Image: Goldenson Center at the University of Connecticut, Author provided

This simulation shows the effect on the same hypothetical group of 100 infected people out of a group of 1,000 where 80% of people wear masks and practice social distancing, which slows the infection rate to almost zero after two months. Image: Goldenson Center for Actuarial Research, CC BY-NC-ND

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