What history tells us about pandemics' impact on inflation

In front of HSBC's London headquarters, a bird flies past a clock as window cleaners work in London's Canary Wharf Financial District in London, Britain, October 11, 2016.   REUTERS/Russell Boyce - RTSRRJS

What can the passage of time teach us? Image: REUTERS/Russell Boyce

Dennis Bonam
Economist, De Nederlandsche Bank
Andra Isabela Smădu
Economist , De Nederlandsche Bank
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Figure 1 Aggregate (GDP-weighted) European inflation and pandemics, 1314-2018
A long-term look at inflation and pandemics. Image: VoxEU

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Response of trend inflation in Europe following a pandemic event
Post-pandemic patterns. Image: VoxEU
Figure 3 Response of trend inflation following a pandemic event: country-specific results
A country-specific view. Image: VoxEU
Figure 4 Response of trend inflation following a pandemic event: conditioning on duration and severity of the pandemic
The impact of the severity of a pandemic. Image: VoxEU
Figure 5 Response of trend inflation following a pandemic and war event
How the impact compares to war Image: VoxEU

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